← Smart money
0xc254…3f73
ProfitableEdge
+18.1pp
ROI
+11%
Win rate
67% @ 49.0¢
Brier
0.220
Resolved
234
Avg size
$309
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 63% (5/8) | +63% | 8 |
| Other | 60% (3/5) | -21% | 5 |
| Tech | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
| Sports | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (1/1) | +15% | 1 |
- Politics8 bets
- Hit rate
- 63% (5/8)
- ROI
- +63%
- Other5 bets
- Hit rate
- 60% (3/5)
- ROI
- -21%
- Tech1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
- Sports1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +15%
Track record
56% hit · 9/16- No$34 @ 82.0¢
- Yes$498 @ 22.6¢
- Yes$22 @ 20.0¢
- No$3.4k @ 86.0¢
- No$2.4k @ 22.4¢
- Yes$15 @ 2.4¢
- No$7.2k @ 39.9¢
- No$6.7k @ 85.1¢
- Yes$5.0k @ 38.0¢
- Yes$157 @ 24.0¢
- No$2.8k @ 78.8¢
- No$14.0k @ 87.4¢
- No$1.4k @ 99.8¢
- No$9.7k @ 86.6¢
- Yes$367 @ 60.0¢
- No$36 @ 36.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Politics | No | $59.3k | 77.0¢ |
| Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? | Politics | No | $12.4k | 88.7¢ |
| Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? | Politics | No | $4.6k | 90.2¢ |
| Yoon out of custody before 2027? | Politics | No | $4.1k | 87.5¢ |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? | Politics | No | $2.6k | 69.8¢ |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | Politics | Yes | $250 | 25.0¢ |
- No$59.3k @ 77.0¢
- No$12.4k @ 88.7¢
- No$4.6k @ 90.2¢
- Yoon out of custody before 2027?PoliticsNo$4.1k @ 87.5¢
- No$2.6k @ 69.8¢
- Yes$250 @ 25.0¢