0xc254…3f73

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xc25427ea224b8f9fa2df801233f944006ed33f73
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+18.1pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

67% @ 49.0¢

Brier

0.220

Resolved

234

Avg size

$309

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	63% (5/8)	+63%	8
Other	60% (3/5)	-21%	5
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+15%	1

Politics8 bets
Hit rate
63% (5/8)
ROI
+63%
Other5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
-21%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+15%

Track record

56% hit · 9/16

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	$34	82.0¢	Won
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?	Yes	$498	22.6¢	Lost
Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?	Yes	$22	20.0¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?	No	$3.4k	86.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$2.4k	22.4¢	Lost
Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$15	2.4¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$7.2k	39.9¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	$6.7k	85.1¢	Won
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Yes	$5.0k	38.0¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	$157	24.0¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?	No	$2.8k	78.8¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	$14.0k	87.4¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$1.4k	99.8¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	No	$9.7k	86.6¢	Won
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	$367	60.0¢	Won
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	No	$36	36.0¢	Lost

Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
No$34 @ 82.0¢
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?Lost
Yes$498 @ 22.6¢
Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?Lost
Yes$22 @ 20.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?Won
No$3.4k @ 86.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$2.4k @ 22.4¢
Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 2.4¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$7.2k @ 39.9¢
Iran leadership change by April 30?Won
No$6.7k @ 85.1¢
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionWon
Yes$5.0k @ 38.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?Lost
Yes$157 @ 24.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?Won
No$2.8k @ 78.8¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?Won
No$14.0k @ 87.4¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$1.4k @ 99.8¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Won
No$9.7k @ 86.6¢
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?Won
Yes$367 @ 60.0¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Lost
No$36 @ 36.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$59.5k	77.0¢
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	Politics	No	$12.4k	88.7¢
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	Politics	No	$7.2k	88.7¢
Will Chow Hang-tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$856	50.0¢
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$856	50.0¢
Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$856	50.0¢
Will ICRC win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$856	50.0¢
Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$856	50.0¢
Will Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$856	50.0¢
Will UNHCR win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$856	50.0¢
Will Reporters Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$856	50.0¢
Will World Central Kitchen win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$856	50.0¢
Will Hussam Abu Safiya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$856	50.0¢
Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$856	50.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$250	25.0¢

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$59.5k @ 77.0¢
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?Politics
No$12.4k @ 88.7¢
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?Politics
No$7.2k @ 88.7¢
Will Chow Hang-tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
Yes$856 @ 50.0¢
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
Yes$856 @ 50.0¢
Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
Yes$856 @ 50.0¢
Will ICRC win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
Yes$856 @ 50.0¢
Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
Yes$856 @ 50.0¢
Will Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
Yes$856 @ 50.0¢
Will UNHCR win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
Yes$856 @ 50.0¢
Will Reporters Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
Yes$856 @ 50.0¢
Will World Central Kitchen win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
Yes$856 @ 50.0¢
Will Hussam Abu Safiya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
Yes$856 @ 50.0¢
Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
Yes$856 @ 50.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
Yes$250 @ 25.0¢