0xc004…c095

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xc004b035b67be284e0d1db56c39e865df6cac095
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.7pp

ROI

+19%

Win rate

47% @ 43.5¢

Brier

0.141

Resolved

922

Avg size

$80

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	48% (103/216)	+29%	216
Tech	64% (68/107)	+35%	107
Politics	57% (23/40)	+7%	40
Geopolitics	58% (7/12)	+39%	12
Culture	33% (2/6)	+9%	6
Sports	50% (2/4)	+8%	4
Crypto	50% (1/2)	-8%	2

Other216 bets
Hit rate
48% (103/216)
ROI
+29%
Tech107 bets
Hit rate
64% (68/107)
ROI
+35%
Politics40 bets
Hit rate
57% (23/40)
ROI
+7%
Geopolitics12 bets
Hit rate
58% (7/12)
ROI
+39%
Culture6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
+9%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+8%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-8%

Track record

53% hit · 206/387

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Gemini Carbon debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?	No	$30	3.3¢	Lost
Will Gemini Carbon debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	No	$65	5.4¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	$503	41.5¢	Won
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$133	20.1¢	Lost
US Gov confirms PHP2Shell exploited by October 31, 2026?	No	$173	30.2¢	Lost
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the #1 US song this week?	No	$5	13.0¢	Lost
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 5, 2026?	Yes	$2	1.0¢	Lost
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 4, 2026?	Yes	$2	0.7¢	Lost
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 3, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.9¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	$138	62.4¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	$282	67.0¢	Won
Baidu matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?	No	$377	82.3¢	Won
SpaceXAI matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?	No	$139	68.0¢	Won
Google matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?	No	$287	67.3¢	Won
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?	No	$256	15.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$226	57.7¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	$500	14.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$215	13.6¢	Won
Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$220	58.7¢	Won
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?	No	$38	77.9¢	Lost
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	$71	81.0¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 28, 2026?	Yes	$204	67.0¢	Won
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition	No	$153	89.0¢	Won
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	No	$492	23.4¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?	Yes	$0	4.3¢	Lost
Epstein client list released in 2025?	Yes	$8	19.4¢	Lost
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	No	$95	14.5¢	Lost
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?	No	$278	84.1¢	Won
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 2 hours and 15 minutes and 2 hours and 30 minutes?	Yes	$6	5.3¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$232	23.0¢	Lost
Paris curfew by October 24?	Yes	$256	32.0¢	Won
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	Yes	$836	55.7¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$224	69.7¢	Won
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 29 - January 4)	No	$10	23.9¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$100	34.3¢	Won
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO1)	KT Rolster	$11	11.0¢	Lost
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?	No	$141	51.4¢	Won
Will "Davos" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	No	$71	29.0¢	Lost
LoL: Cloud9 vs BNK FEARX (BO1)	Cloud9	$53	88.3¢	Won
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?	Yes	$15	77.0¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$410	32.5¢	Won
Was Ilhan Omar sprayed with urine?	Yes	$12	23.0¢	Lost
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?	No	$391	68.9¢	Won
Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?	Yes	$204	16.8¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	Yes	$111	15.0¢	Lost
Will JD Vance clap fewer than 20 times during the State of the Union?	Yes	$2	1.8¢	Lost
Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by October 16, 2026?	No	$72	80.6¢	Won
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	Yes	$1.1k	67.7¢	Won
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?	No	$50	61.0¢	Won
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 31?	Yes	$49	69.0¢	Won

Will Gemini Carbon debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?Lost
No$30 @ 3.3¢
Will Gemini Carbon debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?Lost
No$65 @ 5.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Won
Yes$503 @ 41.5¢
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
Yes$133 @ 20.1¢
US Gov confirms PHP2Shell exploited by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$173 @ 30.2¢
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the #1 US song this week?Lost
No$5 @ 13.0¢
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 5, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.0¢
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 4, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.7¢
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Won
No$138 @ 62.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Won
No$282 @ 67.0¢
Baidu matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?Won
No$377 @ 82.3¢
SpaceXAI matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?Won
No$139 @ 68.0¢
Google matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?Won
No$287 @ 67.3¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?Won
No$256 @ 15.0¢
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?Won
Yes$226 @ 57.7¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Won
No$500 @ 14.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Won
Yes$215 @ 13.6¢
Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Won
Yes$220 @ 58.7¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?Lost
No$38 @ 77.9¢
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?Lost
No$71 @ 81.0¢
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 28, 2026?Won
Yes$204 @ 67.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel EditionWon
No$153 @ 89.0¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Lost
No$492 @ 23.4¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?Lost
Yes$0 @ 4.3¢
Epstein client list released in 2025?Lost
Yes$8 @ 19.4¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$95 @ 14.5¢
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?Won
No$278 @ 84.1¢
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 2 hours and 15 minutes and 2 hours and 30 minutes?Lost
Yes$6 @ 5.3¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$232 @ 23.0¢
Paris curfew by October 24?Won
Yes$256 @ 32.0¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$836 @ 55.7¢
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?Won
Yes$224 @ 69.7¢
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 29 - January 4)Won
No$10 @ 23.9¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$100 @ 34.3¢
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO1)Lost
KT Rolster$11 @ 11.0¢
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Won
No$141 @ 51.4¢
Will "Davos" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Lost
No$71 @ 29.0¢
LoL: Cloud9 vs BNK FEARX (BO1)Won
Cloud9$53 @ 88.3¢
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?Won
Yes$15 @ 77.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$410 @ 32.5¢
Was Ilhan Omar sprayed with urine?Lost
Yes$12 @ 23.0¢
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?Won
No$391 @ 68.9¢
Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?Lost
Yes$204 @ 16.8¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?Lost
Yes$111 @ 15.0¢
Will JD Vance clap fewer than 20 times during the State of the Union?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.8¢
Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by October 16, 2026?Won
No$72 @ 80.6¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 67.7¢
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?Won
No$50 @ 61.0¢
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 31?Won
Yes$49 @ 69.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$7.2k	50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$7.2k	50.0¢
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 65% or higher?	Tech	No	$1.7k	78.3¢
Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$1.3k	89.2¢
Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by June 30, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$972	73.7¢
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$932	65.5¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	Tech	No	$748	60.6¢
Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$743	35.4¢
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$652	66.0¢
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$647	60.1¢
Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$542	52.4¢
Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 50% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$455	92.0¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	Tech	No	$438	52.8¢
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$335	72.1¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	No	$301	32.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	Tech	No	$283	6.0¢
Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$267	67.5¢
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 58% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$221	75.3¢
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$220	26.8¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$220	72.7¢
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Tech	No	$194	72.6¢
US Gov confirms PHP2Shell exploited by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$173	30.2¢
Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Tech	No	$171	79.0¢
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released on November 12, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$170	26.0¢
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	Tech	No	$143	46.3¢
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$133	20.1¢
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?	—	Yes	$128	76.0¢
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 11, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$116	20.0¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on September 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$87	22.9¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1470?	Tech	No	$86	59.7¢

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$7.2k @ 50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$7.2k @ 50.0¢
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 65% or higher?Tech
No$1.7k @ 78.3¢
Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?Tech
Yes$1.3k @ 89.2¢
Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by June 30, 2027?Tech
Yes$972 @ 73.7¢
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?Geopolitics
No$932 @ 65.5¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?Tech
No$748 @ 60.6¢
Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?Tech
Yes$743 @ 35.4¢
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$652 @ 66.0¢
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?Tech
Yes$647 @ 60.1¢
Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$542 @ 52.4¢
Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 50% or higher?Tech
Yes$455 @ 92.0¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Tech
No$438 @ 52.8¢
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$335 @ 72.1¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
No$301 @ 32.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?Tech
No$283 @ 6.0¢
Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?Tech
Yes$267 @ 67.5¢
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 58% or higher?Tech
Yes$221 @ 75.3¢
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?Tech
Yes$220 @ 26.8¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$220 @ 72.7¢
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?Tech
No$194 @ 72.6¢
US Gov confirms PHP2Shell exploited by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$173 @ 30.2¢
Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?Tech
No$171 @ 79.0¢
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released on November 12, 2026?Tech
Yes$170 @ 26.0¢
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?Tech
No$143 @ 46.3¢
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$133 @ 20.1¢
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?—
Yes$128 @ 76.0¢
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 11, 2026?Tech
Yes$116 @ 20.0¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on September 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$87 @ 22.9¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1470?Tech
No$86 @ 59.7¢