0xc004…c095

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xc004b035b67be284e0d1db56c39e865df6cac095
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.5pp

ROI

+30%

Win rate

49% @ 43.8¢

Brier

0.136

Resolved

436

Avg size

$73

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	47% (23/49)	+50%	49
Tech	60% (15/25)	-7%	25
Politics	55% (11/20)	+8%	20
Geopolitics	50% (5/10)	+38%	10
Culture	33% (1/3)	-9%	3
Sports	50% (1/2)	+103%	2
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other49 bets
Hit rate
47% (23/49)
ROI
+50%
Tech25 bets
Hit rate
60% (15/25)
ROI
-7%
Politics20 bets
Hit rate
55% (11/20)
ROI
+8%
Geopolitics10 bets
Hit rate
50% (5/10)
ROI
+38%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-9%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+103%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

51% hit · 56/110

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	$556	66.7¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 24, 2026?	Yes	$25	12.5¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$232	23.0¢	Lost
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	Yes	$836	55.7¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$100	34.3¢	Won
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?	No	$141	51.4¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$410	32.5¢	Won
Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?	Yes	$204	16.8¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	Yes	$111	15.0¢	Lost
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$3	1.4¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$301	38.0¢	Lost
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?	Yes	$859	72.6¢	Won
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	$164	9.8¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30?	Yes	$25	55.3¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	Yes	$46	33.0¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$206	29.0¢	Lost
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?	No	$141	61.0¢	Won
Will Steve Witkoff attend Trump’s Xi summit?	No	$304	64.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$10	57.0¢	Lost
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$57	82.9¢	Won
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$10	31.0¢	Lost
DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?	No	$212	11.1¢	Lost
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?	Yes	$23	5.0¢	Lost
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	No	$53	74.3¢	Won
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	Yes	$80	50.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$87	87.0¢	Won
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	Yes	$1.1k	82.8¢	Won
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$5	85.0¢	Won
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$15	23.0¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	$300	59.8¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	$224	48.0¢	Lost
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	No	$40	51.9¢	Won
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$17	34.9¢	Lost
US strikes Iraq by February 28?	Yes	$152	70.2¢	Won
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?	Yes	$130	76.0¢	Lost
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?	Yes	$595	52.1¢	Lost
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?	No	$513	36.7¢	Won
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?	No	$182	45.6¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?	No	$103	49.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	$1.0k	44.2¢	Lost
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	$748	74.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	No	$1.3k	42.9¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	Yes	$1.3k	19.9¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$19	17.4¢	Lost
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$173	57.5¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?	Yes	$100	89.9¢	Won
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	Yes	$26	80.0¢	Won
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?	No	$143	32.1¢	Lost
Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$212	52.2¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?	No	$102	33.0¢	Won

Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?Won
Yes$556 @ 66.7¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$25 @ 12.5¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$232 @ 23.0¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$836 @ 55.7¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$100 @ 34.3¢
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Won
No$141 @ 51.4¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$410 @ 32.5¢
Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?Lost
Yes$204 @ 16.8¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?Lost
Yes$111 @ 15.0¢
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.4¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$301 @ 38.0¢
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Won
Yes$859 @ 72.6¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$164 @ 9.8¢
Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30?Lost
Yes$25 @ 55.3¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?Lost
Yes$46 @ 33.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$206 @ 29.0¢
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?Won
No$141 @ 61.0¢
Will Steve Witkoff attend Trump’s Xi summit?Won
No$304 @ 64.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 57.0¢
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$57 @ 82.9¢
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 31.0¢
DeepSeek V4 released by May 15?Lost
No$212 @ 11.1¢
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?Lost
Yes$23 @ 5.0¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?Won
No$53 @ 74.3¢
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?Lost
Yes$80 @ 50.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
No$87 @ 87.0¢
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 82.8¢
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 85.0¢
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$15 @ 23.0¢
Will Trump visit China by April 30?Won
No$300 @ 59.8¢
Will Trump visit China by April 30?Lost
Yes$224 @ 48.0¢
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Won
No$40 @ 51.9¢
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$17 @ 34.9¢
US strikes Iraq by February 28?Won
Yes$152 @ 70.2¢
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?Lost
Yes$130 @ 76.0¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$595 @ 52.1¢
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?Won
No$513 @ 36.7¢
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?Lost
No$182 @ 45.6¢
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?Lost
No$103 @ 49.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
No$1.0k @ 44.2¢
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$748 @ 74.0¢
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?Won
No$1.3k @ 42.9¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 19.9¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$19 @ 17.4¢
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$173 @ 57.5¢
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?Won
Yes$100 @ 89.9¢
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?Won
Yes$26 @ 80.0¢
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?Lost
No$143 @ 32.1¢
Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?Lost
Yes$212 @ 52.2¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?Won
No$102 @ 33.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$4.3k	50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$4.3k	50.0¢
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$932	65.5¢
Will the next GPT Luna model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	Tech	No	$627	69.0¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	Tech	No	$521	59.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$405	76.4¢
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$354	87.1¢
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Tech	No	$349	27.7¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$337	90.3¢
Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$321	41.8¢
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 25, 2026?	Tech	No	$308	85.2¢
Google matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?	Tech	No	$287	67.3¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?	Politics	No	$240	60.0¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$220	72.7¢
Will the next GPT Luna model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	Tech	No	$216	51.0¢
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 23, 2026?	Tech	No	$206	86.9¢
Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$191	74.7¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$189	87.0¢
SpaceXAI matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?	Tech	No	$139	68.0¢
Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$117	79.8¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on September 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$87	22.9¢
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$71	81.0¢
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	—	No	$64	88.0¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?	Tech	No	$38	77.9¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.25 on September 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$31	20.7¢
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?	Tech	No	$5	50.0¢
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Culture	No	$2	98.3¢

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$4.3k @ 50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$4.3k @ 50.0¢
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?Geopolitics
No$932 @ 65.5¢
Will the next GPT Luna model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?Tech
No$627 @ 69.0¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?Tech
No$521 @ 59.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Tech
Yes$405 @ 76.4¢
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Tech
Yes$354 @ 87.1¢
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Tech
No$349 @ 27.7¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Tech
Yes$337 @ 90.3¢
Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$321 @ 41.8¢
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 25, 2026?Tech
No$308 @ 85.2¢
Google matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?Tech
No$287 @ 67.3¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?Politics
No$240 @ 60.0¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$220 @ 72.7¢
Will the next GPT Luna model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?Tech
No$216 @ 51.0¢
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 23, 2026?Tech
No$206 @ 86.9¢
Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by October 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$191 @ 74.7¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?Tech
Yes$189 @ 87.0¢
SpaceXAI matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?Tech
No$139 @ 68.0¢
Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$117 @ 79.8¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on September 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$87 @ 22.9¢
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?Tech
No$71 @ 81.0¢
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?—
No$64 @ 88.0¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?Tech
No$38 @ 77.9¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.25 on September 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$31 @ 20.7¢
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?Tech
No$5 @ 50.0¢
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?Culture
No$2 @ 98.3¢