0xbf55…c966

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xbf556ee8ef310335c55387cac8be9d1d503bc966
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.8pp

ROI

+24%

Win rate

44% @ 38.4¢

Brier

0.198

Resolved

975

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	42% (70/166)	+2%	166
Politics	53% (42/79)	-28%	79
Sports	31% (5/16)	-57%	16
Geopolitics	53% (8/15)	+14%	15
Crypto	40% (2/5)	+82%	5
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+0%	1

Other166 bets
Hit rate
42% (70/166)
ROI
+2%
Politics79 bets
Hit rate
53% (42/79)
ROI
-28%
Sports16 bets
Hit rate
31% (5/16)
ROI
-57%
Geopolitics15 bets
Hit rate
53% (8/15)
ROI
+14%
Crypto5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
+82%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+0%

Track record

45% hit · 128/284

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$1	24.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	$1	21.2¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	$4	79.3¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	$1	88.0¢	Won
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?	No	$1	97.0¢	Won
Chelsea FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5	Over	$1	43.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$1	40.0¢	Won
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	Yes	$1	63.6¢	Won
Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Yes	$1	7.3¢	Lost
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?	Yes	$2	20.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)	No	$3	11.4¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Brad Tavares vs. Eryk Anders (Middleweight, Prelims)	Brad Tavares	$1	45.0¢	Lost
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	Yes	$1	28.0¢	Lost
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?	Yes	$3	0.2¢	Lost
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-14?	No	$1	69.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$21	17.0¢	Lost
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?	Yes	$1	69.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be 2°C or below on February 14?	Yes	$1	0.3¢	Lost
Shanghai Sharks vs. Beijing Royal Fighters	Beijing Royal Fighters	$1	23.0¢	Lost
Will Vox (VOX) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election?	Yes	$1	0.7¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$1	60.0¢	Lost
Will CA Platense win on 2026-03-10?	No	$2	64.0¢	Won
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-10?	Yes	$1	35.0¢	Lost
Delaware State Hornets vs. Morgan State Bears	Delaware State Hornets	$1	43.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$1	70.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$1	30.0¢	Lost
Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-03-13?	No	$1	64.0¢	Won
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Feb 20?	Yes	$1	7.5¢	Lost
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$11	0.3¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Vitor Petrino vs. Steven Asplund (Heavyweight, Prelims)	Vitor Petrino	$1	66.0¢	Won
Red Wings vs. Devils	Red Wings	$5	52.0¢	Won
Will "Homefront" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	Yes	$1	16.0¢	Won
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14?	No	$1	28.0¢	Lost
Will Grok 4.20 be released on March 12, 2026?	Yes	$3	1.8¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	No	$2	89.0¢	Won
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?	Yes	$3	0.2¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 10?	No	$2	5.0¢	Lost
Will Grok 4.20 be released on March 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	1.2¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$1	49.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$3	13.9¢	Lost
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs	Team Spirit	$1	75.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$5	20.5¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$62	30.2¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$43	19.6¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	No	$1	84.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	Yes	$11	30.9¢	Lost
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score	No	$6	49.2¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	Astralis	$1	48.0¢	Lost
Timberwolves vs. Lakers	Timberwolves	$1	54.9¢	Lost

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
Yes$1 @ 24.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Lost
No$1 @ 21.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Won
Yes$4 @ 79.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 88.0¢
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?Won
No$1 @ 97.0¢
Chelsea FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5Lost
Over$1 @ 43.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 40.0¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Won
Yes$1 @ 63.6¢
Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.3¢
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?Lost
Yes$2 @ 20.5¢
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)Lost
No$3 @ 11.4¢
UFC Fight Night: Brad Tavares vs. Eryk Anders (Middleweight, Prelims)Lost
Brad Tavares$1 @ 45.0¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 28.0¢
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.2¢
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-14?Won
No$1 @ 69.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$21 @ 17.0¢
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?Won
Yes$1 @ 69.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 2°C or below on February 14?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
Shanghai Sharks vs. Beijing Royal FightersLost
Beijing Royal Fighters$1 @ 23.0¢
Will Vox (VOX) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.7¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$1 @ 60.0¢
Will CA Platense win on 2026-03-10?Won
No$2 @ 64.0¢
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-10?Lost
Yes$1 @ 35.0¢
Delaware State Hornets vs. Morgan State BearsWon
Delaware State Hornets$1 @ 43.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 70.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 30.0¢
Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-03-13?Won
No$1 @ 64.0¢
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Feb 20?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.5¢
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$11 @ 0.3¢
UFC Fight Night: Vitor Petrino vs. Steven Asplund (Heavyweight, Prelims)Won
Vitor Petrino$1 @ 66.0¢
Red Wings vs. DevilsWon
Red Wings$5 @ 52.0¢
Will "Homefront" be the top US Netflix movie this week?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Won
Yes$1 @ 16.0¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14?Lost
No$1 @ 28.0¢
Will Grok 4.20 be released on March 12, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.8¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Won
No$2 @ 89.0¢
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.2¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 10?Lost
No$2 @ 5.0¢
Will Grok 4.20 be released on March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.2¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$1 @ 49.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 13.9¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsWon
Team Spirit$1 @ 75.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 20.5¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$62 @ 30.2¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$43 @ 19.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Won
No$1 @ 84.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Lost
Yes$11 @ 30.9¢
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreLost
No$6 @ 49.2¢
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League PlayoffsLost
Astralis$1 @ 48.0¢
Timberwolves vs. LakersLost
Timberwolves$1 @ 54.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$22	93.0¢
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$1	94.3¢
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	31.0¢

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$22 @ 93.0¢
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$1 @ 94.3¢
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 31.0¢