0xbf55…c966

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xbf556ee8ef310335c55387cac8be9d1d503bc966
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.7pp

ROI

+23%

Win rate

57% @ 43.0¢

Brier

0.213

Resolved

321

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	38% (13/34)	-33%	34
Politics	31% (4/13)	-22%	13
Crypto	50% (2/4)	+85%	4
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+210%	2

Other34 bets
Hit rate
38% (13/34)
ROI
-33%
Politics13 bets
Hit rate
31% (4/13)
ROI
-22%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+85%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+210%

Track record

40% hit · 21/53

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?	Yes	$2	20.5¢	Lost
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-14?	No	$1	69.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$21	17.0¢	Lost
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-10?	Yes	$1	35.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$1	70.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$1	30.0¢	Lost
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14?	No	$1	28.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	No	$2	89.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$1	49.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$3	13.9¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$5	20.5¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$62	30.2¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$43	19.6¢	Lost
Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$1	2.5¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	$6	24.3¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$14	76.5¢	Won
Kings vs. Bruins	Bruins	$1	59.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	No	$1	61.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$1	55.0¢	Won
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$2	2.1¢	Lost
Will Jupiter be accused of insider trading?	Yes	$1	2.2¢	Lost
Netanyahu out by March 31?	Yes	$1	1.1¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$7	24.4¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	26.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	$1	31.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$27	66.2¢	Won
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11?	No	$2	73.0¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$1	78.0¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	$5	23.0¢	Lost
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11?	No	$10	58.9¢	Lost
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$1	3.7¢	Lost
Will France win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$13	13.4¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13?	No	$1	72.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$1	8.0¢	Lost
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 1	ThunderTalk Gaming	$2	37.6¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 16?	No	$3	27.3¢	Won
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$1	36.0¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	No	$16	60.6¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	Yes	$4	46.6¢	Won
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?	No	$1	3.0¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	$1	81.0¢	Won
Will Amen Thompson win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?	Yes	$4	2.0¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	Yes	$1	53.0¢	Won
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	No	$5	89.3¢	Won
Will Microstrategy announce selling any Bitcoin July 7-13?	Yes	$5	18.0¢	Lost
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$3	46.3¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$5	55.7¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$1	60.0¢	Lost
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?	No	$1	65.0¢	Lost
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics	Los Angeles Dodgers	$5	62.8¢	Won

Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?Lost
Yes$2 @ 20.5¢
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-14?Won
No$1 @ 69.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$21 @ 17.0¢
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-10?Lost
Yes$1 @ 35.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 70.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 30.0¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14?Lost
No$1 @ 28.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Won
No$2 @ 89.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$1 @ 49.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 13.9¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 20.5¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$62 @ 30.2¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$43 @ 19.6¢
Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.5¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
No$6 @ 24.3¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$14 @ 76.5¢
Kings vs. BruinsWon
Bruins$1 @ 59.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?Won
No$1 @ 61.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$1 @ 55.0¢
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.1¢
Will Jupiter be accused of insider trading?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.2¢
Netanyahu out by March 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.1¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$7 @ 24.4¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 26.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 31.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$27 @ 66.2¢
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11?Lost
No$2 @ 73.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$1 @ 78.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 23.0¢
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11?Lost
No$10 @ 58.9¢
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.7¢
Will France win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$13 @ 13.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13?Won
No$1 @ 72.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 1Lost
ThunderTalk Gaming$2 @ 37.6¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 16?Won
No$3 @ 27.3¢
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$1 @ 36.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Lost
No$16 @ 60.6¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Won
Yes$4 @ 46.6¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 3.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?Won
No$1 @ 81.0¢
Will Amen Thompson win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?Lost
Yes$4 @ 2.0¢
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?Won
Yes$1 @ 53.0¢
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?Won
No$5 @ 89.3¢
Will Microstrategy announce selling any Bitcoin July 7-13?Lost
Yes$5 @ 18.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$3 @ 46.3¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 55.7¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$1 @ 60.0¢
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?Lost
No$1 @ 65.0¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. AthleticsWon
Los Angeles Dodgers$5 @ 62.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Politics	Yes	$1	74.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	—	Yes	$1	83.8¢
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	Politics	No	$1	62.0¢
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	Politics	Yes	$1	62.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$1	33.0¢
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	31.0¢
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1	3.0¢

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
Yes$1 @ 74.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?—
Yes$1 @ 83.8¢
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Politics
No$1 @ 62.0¢
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Politics
Yes$1 @ 62.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$1 @ 33.0¢
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 31.0¢
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢