← Smart money
0xbf4d…33ed
SharpEdge
+7.0pp
ROI
+13%
Win rate
61% @ 54.0¢
Brier
0.118
Resolved
3929
Avg size
$122
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 63% (32/51) | +6% | 51 |
| Geopolitics | 61% (25/41) | +20% | 41 |
| Other | 54% (20/37) | +1% | 37 |
| Sports | 60% (3/5) | -17% | 5 |
| Economy | 100% (1/1) | +22% | 1 |
- Politics51 bets
- Hit rate
- 63% (32/51)
- ROI
- +6%
- Geopolitics41 bets
- Hit rate
- 61% (25/41)
- ROI
- +20%
- Other37 bets
- Hit rate
- 54% (20/37)
- ROI
- +1%
- Sports5 bets
- Hit rate
- 60% (3/5)
- ROI
- -17%
- Economy1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +22%
Track record
60% hit · 81/135- No$5.0k @ 90.8¢
- Yes$4 @ 14.0¢
- Yes$6.1k @ 15.3¢
- No$202 @ 81.0¢
- No$298 @ 20.3¢
- Yes$778 @ 87.6¢
- No$650 @ 81.0¢
- No$2.5k @ 79.8¢
- No$761 @ 35.9¢
- Yes$107 @ 70.5¢
- No$4 @ 80.0¢
- Yes$63 @ 39.4¢
- No$15 @ 38.0¢
- Yes$2.4k @ 75.0¢
- No$28 @ 32.0¢
- Yes$2.0k @ 74.3¢
- No$34 @ 89.0¢
- No$1.0k @ 88.4¢
- Yes$1.3k @ 66.0¢
- No$202 @ 88.0¢
- Yes$4.3k @ 73.9¢
- No$2.8k @ 5.5¢
- Yes$5.0k @ 83.2¢
- Yes$8.6k @ 83.2¢
- No$6.5k @ 84.5¢
- No$6.8k @ 84.3¢
- Yes$35 @ 10.7¢
- Yes$285 @ 66.2¢
- No$5.3k @ 59.3¢
- Yes$2.2k @ 71.4¢
- No$260 @ 70.9¢
- Yes$509 @ 85.2¢
- No$28.6k @ 75.2¢
- Yes$63 @ 57.2¢
- No$8.6k @ 80.2¢
- No$2.1k @ 71.3¢
- Yes$57 @ 54.6¢
- No$190 @ 89.0¢
- Yes$4.0k @ 84.3¢
- No$523 @ 50.7¢
- No$26.9k @ 71.8¢
- Yes$894 @ 60.7¢
- No$284 @ 73.5¢
- No$3.0k @ 85.3¢
- Yes$260 @ 13.0¢
- Yes$233 @ 53.0¢
- No$561 @ 84.2¢
- No$64 @ 32.0¢
- No$390 @ 13.0¢
- Yes$981 @ 83.5¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? | Geopolitics | Yes | $217 | 49.8¢ |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Politics | Yes | $67 | 31.0¢ |
| Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? | Geopolitics | No | $52 | 72.9¢ |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | Geopolitics | Yes | $7 | 69.0¢ |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Politics | No | $6 | 64.0¢ |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | Politics | Yes | $5 | 52.0¢ |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Geopolitics | No | $5 | 52.0¢ |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | Politics | Yes | $5 | 48.0¢ |
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?GeopoliticsYes$217 @ 49.8¢
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?PoliticsYes$67 @ 31.0¢
- No$52 @ 72.9¢
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?GeopoliticsYes$7 @ 69.0¢
- No$6 @ 64.0¢
- Yes$5 @ 52.0¢
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?GeopoliticsNo$5 @ 52.0¢
- Yes$5 @ 48.0¢