0xbe89…b88c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xbe89905ca9a689f5129621b62fcf715b5a45b88c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.8pp

ROI

+12%

Win rate

50% @ 45.8¢

Brier

0.145

Resolved

3374

Avg size

$353

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	44% (504/1155)	+14%	1155
Politics	68% (25/37)	-1%	37
Economy	40% (6/15)	+60%	15
Geopolitics	100% (3/3)	+16%	3

Other1155 bets
Hit rate
44% (504/1155)
ROI
+14%
Politics37 bets
Hit rate
68% (25/37)
ROI
-1%
Economy15 bets
Hit rate
40% (6/15)
ROI
+60%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+16%

Track record

44% hit · 538/1210

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by August 31?	No	$100	49.3¢	Won
Will Tim Walz announce Senate run before July?	No	$21	55.5¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in June?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
India air/missile strike on Pakistan soil by Friday?	No	$200	69.1¢	Won
Will the Conservative Party win between 38% and 41% of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election?	Yes	$44	34.9¢	Lost
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August?	No	$30	89.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire before July?	Yes	$15	9.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2025?	No	$100	77.9¢	Won
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?	No	$380	16.9¢	Won
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$6.0k	87.7¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in September?	Yes	$25	15.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Tariff" during Fort Bragg remarks on June 10?	Yes	$30	36.0¢	Lost
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration first?	Yes	$13	2.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say "China" during Kennedy Center event today?	Yes	$4	19.4¢	Won
Will Trump say “Big Beautiful Bill” during his Iowa State Fairgrounds speech?	Yes	$25	74.7¢	Won
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in British Columbia in the next Canadian Election?	Yes	$150	50.9¢	Lost
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025	Yes	$765	84.3¢	Won
Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 3+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?	No	$20	26.0¢	Won
Will US GDP growth in 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	Yes	$22	9.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Energy and Innovation Summit on July 15?	Yes	$25	34.9¢	Lost
Poilievre resigns as leader of Conservatives before June?	No	$500	79.8¢	Won
Will Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during his presser with Ireland PM?	Yes	$25	26.0¢	Lost
Trump x Xi talk before July?	Yes	$100	76.8¢	Won
Will Powell say "Successor" during March press conference?	Yes	$43	30.6¢	Won
Trump meets with Carney before June?	No	$100	40.1¢	Lost
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords in 2025?	Yes	$5	11.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Hell" 5 or more times during his Feb 20 Republican Governors Association appearance?	No	$80	62.4¢	Lost
U.S. enacts stablecoin bill in 2025?	Yes	$250	82.4¢	Won
10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday?	Yes	$6	9.3¢	Lost
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	$1.5k	35.0¢	Lost
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet by August 23?	Yes	$3	6.1¢	Lost
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?	No	$1.4k	73.3¢	Won
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?	Yes	$245	34.6¢	Lost
Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union?	No	$200	38.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union?	Yes	$500	68.0¢	Won
Will Peter Navarro leave the Trump administration first?	Yes	$4	0.5¢	Lost
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?	No	$5.8k	84.8¢	Won
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 0% and 3% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?	Yes	$120	15.0¢	Lost
US bank failure by March 31?	Yes	$9	30.0¢	Won
Will Musk say "DOGE" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?	Yes	$107	27.9¢	Won
Will Trump withdraw from Paris climate agreement in first 100 days?	Yes	$4.0k	86.0¢	Won
50% tariff goes into effect on EU by June 1?	No	$250	67.0¢	Won
Will EJ Antoni be confirmed as BLS Commissioner in 2025?	No	$200	41.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?	Yes	$65	17.0¢	Lost
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	No	$20	31.6¢	Won
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	Yes	$872	85.9¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?	No	$25	54.0¢	Won
20+ trapped Hamas fighters allowed to leave in 2025?	Yes	$5	34.0¢	Lost
Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during April press conference?	Yes	$204	45.7¢	Lost
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?	No	$312	85.9¢	Won

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by August 31?Won
No$100 @ 49.3¢
Will Tim Walz announce Senate run before July?Won
No$21 @ 55.5¢
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in June?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
India air/missile strike on Pakistan soil by Friday?Won
No$200 @ 69.1¢
Will the Conservative Party win between 38% and 41% of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election?Lost
Yes$44 @ 34.9¢
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August?Won
No$30 @ 89.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire before July? Lost
Yes$15 @ 9.0¢
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2025?Won
No$100 @ 77.9¢
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?Won
No$380 @ 16.9¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Won
No$6.0k @ 87.7¢
Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in September?Won
Yes$25 @ 15.0¢
Will Trump say "Tariff" during Fort Bragg remarks on June 10?Lost
Yes$30 @ 36.0¢
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration first?Lost
Yes$13 @ 2.9¢
Will Trump say "China" during Kennedy Center event today?Won
Yes$4 @ 19.4¢
Will Trump say “Big Beautiful Bill” during his Iowa State Fairgrounds speech?Won
Yes$25 @ 74.7¢
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in British Columbia in the next Canadian Election?Lost
Yes$150 @ 50.9¢
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025Won
Yes$765 @ 84.3¢
Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 3+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?Won
No$20 @ 26.0¢
Will US GDP growth in 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?Won
Yes$22 @ 9.0¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Energy and Innovation Summit on July 15?Lost
Yes$25 @ 34.9¢
Poilievre resigns as leader of Conservatives before June?Won
No$500 @ 79.8¢
Will Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during his presser with Ireland PM?Lost
Yes$25 @ 26.0¢
Trump x Xi talk before July?Won
Yes$100 @ 76.8¢
Will Powell say "Successor" during March press conference?Won
Yes$43 @ 30.6¢
Trump meets with Carney before June?Lost
No$100 @ 40.1¢
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords in 2025?Lost
Yes$5 @ 11.0¢
Will Trump say "Hell" 5 or more times during his Feb 20 Republican Governors Association appearance?Lost
No$80 @ 62.4¢
U.S. enacts stablecoin bill in 2025?Won
Yes$250 @ 82.4¢
10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday?Lost
Yes$6 @ 9.3¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Lost
No$1.5k @ 35.0¢
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet by August 23?Lost
Yes$3 @ 6.1¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Won
No$1.4k @ 73.3¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Lost
Yes$245 @ 34.6¢
Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union?Lost
No$200 @ 38.9¢
Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union?Won
Yes$500 @ 68.0¢
Will Peter Navarro leave the Trump administration first?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.5¢
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?Won
No$5.8k @ 84.8¢
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 0% and 3% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$120 @ 15.0¢
US bank failure by March 31?Won
Yes$9 @ 30.0¢
Will Musk say "DOGE" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Won
Yes$107 @ 27.9¢
Will Trump withdraw from Paris climate agreement in first 100 days?Won
Yes$4.0k @ 86.0¢
50% tariff goes into effect on EU by June 1?Won
No$250 @ 67.0¢
Will EJ Antoni be confirmed as BLS Commissioner in 2025?Won
No$200 @ 41.0¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?Lost
Yes$65 @ 17.0¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Won
No$20 @ 31.6¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Lost
Yes$872 @ 85.9¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Won
No$25 @ 54.0¢
20+ trapped Hamas fighters allowed to leave in 2025?Lost
Yes$5 @ 34.0¢
Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during April press conference?Lost
Yes$204 @ 45.7¢
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?Won
No$312 @ 85.9¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$38.9k	88.5¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$15.1k	85.9¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$14.5k	88.0¢
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	Economy	No	$12.5k	90.0¢
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Economy	No	$7.3k	90.9¢
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Politics	Yes	$7.1k	89.6¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Economy	No	$6.2k	85.3¢
US military draft authorized in 2026?	Politics	No	$5.1k	89.9¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$5.0k	92.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$4.5k	90.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$4.2k	90.6¢
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$3.7k	69.8¢
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Politics	No	$3.2k	79.9¢
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$3.0k	31.5¢
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Politics	No	$2.9k	81.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$2.8k	27.0¢
Will Josh Hawley announce a presidential run before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.8k	89.8¢
JD Vance out as VP by December 31?	Politics	No	$1.5k	95.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.5k	89.3¢
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.4k	90.0¢
Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.2k	88.6¢
Will Marco Rubio announce a presidential run before 2027?	Politics	No	$825	91.3¢
Will Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Politics	No	$817	83.7¢
Will Andy Beshear announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Politics	No	$783	89.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the KY-04 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$723	91.0¢
Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027?	Politics	No	$712	89.0¢
Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?	Economy	No	$700	50.2¢
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?	Politics	No	$500	90.0¢
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Politics	No	$430	86.0¢
Will Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Politics	No	$400	90.0¢

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Economy
Yes$38.9k @ 88.5¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$15.1k @ 85.9¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$14.5k @ 88.0¢
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?Economy
No$12.5k @ 90.0¢
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Economy
No$7.3k @ 90.9¢
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Politics
Yes$7.1k @ 89.6¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Economy
No$6.2k @ 85.3¢
US military draft authorized in 2026?Politics
No$5.1k @ 89.9¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$5.0k @ 92.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$4.5k @ 90.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
No$4.2k @ 90.6¢
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$3.7k @ 69.8¢
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?Politics
No$3.2k @ 79.9¢
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$3.0k @ 31.5¢
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?Politics
No$2.9k @ 81.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$2.8k @ 27.0¢
Will Josh Hawley announce a presidential run before 2027?Politics
No$1.8k @ 89.8¢
JD Vance out as VP by December 31?Politics
No$1.5k @ 95.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027?Politics
No$1.5k @ 89.3¢
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?Politics
No$1.4k @ 90.0¢
Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2027?Politics
No$1.2k @ 88.6¢
Will Marco Rubio announce a presidential run before 2027?Politics
No$825 @ 91.3¢
Will Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run before 2027?Politics
No$817 @ 83.7¢
Will Andy Beshear announce a Presidential run before 2027?Politics
No$783 @ 89.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the KY-04 House seat?Politics
Yes$723 @ 91.0¢
Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027?Politics
No$712 @ 89.0¢
Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?Economy
No$700 @ 50.2¢
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?Politics
No$500 @ 90.0¢
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?Politics
No$430 @ 86.0¢
Will Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential run before 2027?Politics
No$400 @ 90.0¢