0xbc0d…d3a5

Specialization by sphere

• Other304 bets

  Hit rate

  68% (208/304)

  ROI

  +13%

• Politics87 bets

  Hit rate

  52% (45/87)

  ROI

  +21%

• Sports25 bets

  Hit rate

  52% (13/25)

  ROI

  +9%

• Crypto12 bets

  Hit rate

  33% (4/12)

  ROI

  -47%

• Tech6 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (4/6)

  ROI

  -18%

• Science4 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (2/4)

  ROI

  +27%

• Economy1 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/1)

  ROI

  -100%

• Culture1 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/1)

  ROI

  -100%

• Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
  No$10 @ 40.7¢
• Will Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Khaleej Saudi Club end in a draw?Won
  No$4 @ 88.0¢
• Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?Won
  No$5 @ 76.6¢
• Will Jim Oberweis be the Republican nominee for FL-19?Won
  No$5 @ 76.6¢
• Will Jim Oberweis be the Republican nominee for FL-19?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 18.4¢
• Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 56%?Lost
  Yes$5 @ 8.7¢
• U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?Won
  Yes$18 @ 87.7¢
• Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?Won
  No$9 @ 83.1¢
• No airdrop in 2025?Won
  No$4 @ 84.0¢
• Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?Lost
  No$10 @ 62.0¢
• Will Starmer say "Equality" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 46.4¢
• Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 7.0¢
• Will Stephen Graham win Best Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?Won
  No$4 @ 89.0¢
• Will Stephen Graham win Best Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 3.0¢
• Will "Epstein" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29)Lost
  Yes$34 @ 60.4¢
• Will Algeria win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025?Won
  No$4 @ 87.0¢
• Will Algeria win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 8.0¢
• Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?Won
  No$10 @ 87.0¢
• Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 4.8¢
• Will EA say "Acquisition" during earnings call?Won
  No$10 @ 84.0¢
• Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Won
  Yes$127 @ 76.6¢
• US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Won
  No$43 @ 86.0¢
• Will Katherine LaNasa win Best Actress in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?Won
  No$4 @ 80.0¢
• Will Katherine LaNasa win Best Actress in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 9.0¢
• Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?Won
  No$5 @ 81.0¢
• Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?Lost
  No$5 @ 33.0¢
• Will Martin Short win Best Actor in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?Won
  No$4 @ 89.0¢
• Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Lost
  No$5 @ 57.0¢
• Will Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?Lost
  No$10 @ 53.7¢
• Will Jensen Huang say "Meta" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?Lost
  No$10 @ 54.0¢
• Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?Won
  Yes$18 @ 63.9¢
• Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?Won
  No$4 @ 89.3¢
• Will "Disgraceful" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Won
  No$1 @ 25.0¢
• Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?Lost
  No$4 @ 88.4¢
• Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?Lost
  No$2 @ 24.0¢
• Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
  No$50 @ 62.0¢
• Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Lost
  No$5 @ 24.0¢
• Will KT Rolster win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?Won
  No$19 @ 86.8¢
• Will KT Rolster win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
• Will "Dude" be said 10+ times on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 8)Lost
  Yes$72 @ 72.2¢
• Will "Ukraine" be said at the Oscars?Lost
  Yes$15 @ 41.5¢
• Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?Won
  No$12 @ 62.0¢
• Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Won
  Yes$10 @ 87.0¢
• Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?Lost
  No$68 @ 68.0¢
• Will a new Cabinet of the Netherlands be sworn in by March 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$5 @ 75.0¢
• Will Trump say "United States Armed Forces" in April?Won
  Yes$1 @ 43.0¢
• Will Iran strike Turkey in March?Won
  No$17 @ 86.0¢
• Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?Won
  No$47 @ 32.6¢
• Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?Lost
  Yes$65 @ 60.2¢
• Will Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Won
  No$19 @ 68.5¢

Current positions

• Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Politics
  No$84 @ 84.1¢
• Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$63 @ 18.0¢
• Will "Korea" or "Korean" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Politics
  Yes$50 @ 40.0¢
• Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
  No$50 @ 90.9¢
• Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?Politics
  No$50 @ 94.6¢
• Will "Nordic" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Politics
  Yes$50 @ 34.0¢
• Will "Alien" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of November 2?Politics
  No$50 @ 39.0¢
• Will "Blue" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Politics
  No$50 @ 24.0¢
• Will "Iran" or "Iranian" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Politics
  Yes$50 @ 63.0¢
• Will "Car" or "Vehicle" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Politics
  Yes$50 @ 80.0¢
• Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said 15+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Politics
  Yes$50 @ 55.0¢
• Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Politics
  No$48 @ 22.0¢
• Will "Red" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Politics
  No$48 @ 19.0¢
• Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?Politics
  Yes$35 @ 74.0¢
• Will "Buddy of Mine" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of November 2?Politics
  No$24 @ 78.0¢
• Will BNB reach $1000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
  No$19 @ 79.1¢
• Celonis IPO before 2027?Business
  No$17 @ 88.9¢
• Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?Politics
  No$11 @ 56.8¢
• Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?Politics
  No$10 @ 21.0¢
• Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?Crypto
  No$10 @ 21.1¢
• Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?Other
  No$10 @ 83.1¢
• Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Politics
  No$10 @ 87.0¢
• Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?Science
  No$10 @ 51.7¢
• Will Ethena reach $0.32 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
  No$10 @ 73.0¢
• Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?Politics
  No$10 @ 73.0¢
• AI bubble burst in 2026?Tech
  No$10 @ 86.3¢
• Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?Politics
  No$10 @ 74.8¢
• Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?Geopolitics
  No$10 @ 91.0¢
• Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Culture
  No$10 @ 62.0¢
• Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
  No$10 @ 52.0¢