← Smart money
0xbb65…1407
ProfitableEdge
+13.7pp
ROI
+56%
Win rate
55% @ 41.5¢
Brier
0.272
Resolved
67
Avg size
$5
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 50% (2/4) | -24% | 4 |
| Crypto | 50% (2/4) | +115% | 4 |
| Other | 50% (1/2) | -57% | 2 |
| Geopolitics | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Politics4 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (2/4)
- ROI
- -24%
- Crypto4 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (2/4)
- ROI
- +115%
- Other2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- -57%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
45% hit · 5/11| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | $22 | 14.1¢ | Lost |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | No | $114 | 40.9¢ | Won |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Yes | $5 | 11.9¢ | Lost |
| Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? | No | $7 | 18.6¢ | Lost |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | $11 | 13.9¢ | Lost |
| Epstein suicide note released by May 8? | No | $3 | 82.0¢ | Won |
| Epstein suicide note released by May 8? | Yes | $5 | 8.8¢ | Lost |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | No | $1 | 24.9¢ | Lost |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $37 | 62.3¢ | Won |
| Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $7 | 29.5¢ | Won |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? | Yes | $4 | 87.0¢ | Won |
- Yes$22 @ 14.1¢
- No$114 @ 40.9¢
- Yes$5 @ 11.9¢
- No$7 @ 18.6¢
- Yes$11 @ 13.9¢
- No$3 @ 82.0¢
- Yes$5 @ 8.8¢
- No$1 @ 24.9¢
- Yes$37 @ 62.3¢
- Yes$7 @ 29.5¢
- Yes$4 @ 87.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? | Crypto | Yes | $10 | 24.9¢ |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | Politics | No | $1 | 77.0¢ |
- Yes$10 @ 24.9¢
- No$1 @ 77.0¢