0xb8b4…1f6e

Specialization by sphere

• Politics48 bets

  Hit rate

  46% (22/48)

  ROI

  +14%

• Other22 bets

  Hit rate

  41% (9/22)

  ROI

  -24%

• Geopolitics9 bets

  Hit rate

  44% (4/9)

  ROI

  +8%

• Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
  No$26 @ 84.7¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Won
  No$14.4k @ 86.2¢
• Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Lost
  Yes$59 @ 5.2¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$19.1k @ 55.1¢
• Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?Lost
  Yes$2.7k @ 55.1¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Won
  No$356 @ 53.8¢
• Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Won
  No$75 @ 59.0¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
  No$5.3k @ 42.7¢
• Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?Lost
  Yes$59 @ 38.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
  No$2.0k @ 79.7¢
• Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?Lost
  Yes$52 @ 29.1¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
  No$5.9k @ 49.6¢
• Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?Lost
  No$656 @ 7.8¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?Won
  No$2.6k @ 84.7¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Lost
  No$2.3k @ 35.0¢
• Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$74 @ 48.0¢
• US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Lost
  No$743 @ 1.1¢
• Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30?Lost
  Yes$76 @ 4.0¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Lost
  No$2.7k @ 40.3¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
  No$414 @ 68.0¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Won
  No$1.1k @ 48.0¢
• US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Lost
  No$284 @ 24.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
  No$376 @ 76.0¢
• US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
  No$57 @ 36.0¢
• US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
  Yes$196 @ 41.2¢
• Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Lost
  No$984 @ 37.0¢
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Lost
  No$67 @ 26.0¢
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$202 @ 9.9¢
• Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Lost
  No$1.0k @ 39.6¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$8.9k @ 66.8¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
  No$239 @ 47.7¢
• Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Lost
  Yes$80 @ 16.0¢
• Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
  No$671 @ 78.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
  Yes$1.2k @ 8.2¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$13.4k @ 40.9¢
• Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
  No$1.1k @ 70.0¢
• Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$249 @ 49.0¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$18.2k @ 68.0¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$7.1k @ 27.5¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Won
  No$1.3k @ 21.6¢
• Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$5.7k @ 82.2¢
• Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Lost
  No$88 @ 27.1¢
• Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?Lost
  Yes$15 @ 15.0¢
• Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?Lost
  No$217 @ 22.0¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$87 @ 40.0¢
• Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?Won
  No$1.6k @ 64.1¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
  No$18.0k @ 58.5¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Lost
  No$8.3k @ 24.9¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Won
  No$27.7k @ 64.7¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Won
  No$220 @ 44.0¢

Current positions

• Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$24.1k @ 93.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$19.1k @ 83.1¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$13.1k @ 93.1¢
• Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$8.6k @ 47.7¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?Politics
  No$6.7k @ 96.0¢
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$4.4k @ 76.4¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
  No$3.7k @ 91.2¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
  No$2.6k @ 88.0¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$2.1k @ 84.0¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?Geopolitics
  No$2.0k @ 98.6¢
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$1.9k @ 95.0¢
• Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$1.5k @ 63.5¢
• Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?Politics
  No$911 @ 91.0¢
• Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Politics
  No$450 @ 92.0¢
• Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?Geopolitics
  Yes$253 @ 14.1¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$245 @ 49.0¢
• Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$234 @ 48.9¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?Politics
  No$229 @ 76.0¢
• Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
  No$202 @ 81.0¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Politics
  No$200 @ 41.0¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$152 @ 39.7¢
• Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?Geopolitics
  No$116 @ 61.0¢
• Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?Politics
  No$75 @ 79.0¢
• Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$63 @ 72.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
  No$60 @ 44.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?Politics
  Yes$58 @ 46.0¢
• Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$56 @ 1.9¢
• Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$20 @ 32.9¢
• Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$16 @ 29.9¢
• Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
  No$14 @ 83.0¢