0xb8a4…a13b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb8a47d387beb9ec7fd4baaec05396e9677cea13b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.6pp

ROI

+33%

Win rate

21% @ 14.8¢

Brier

0.062

Resolved

140

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	15% (8/52)	+49%	52
Tech	0% (0/6)	-100%	6
Geopolitics	0% (0/6)	-100%	6
Other	67% (2/3)	+59%	3
Culture	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Business	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics52 bets
Hit rate
15% (8/52)
ROI
+49%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/6)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics6 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/6)
ROI
-100%
Other3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+59%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

14% hit · 10/70

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	$7	63.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	No	$4	86.6¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$5	4.7¢	Lost
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$0	7.4¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$53	86.7¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	No	$0	5.6¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$0	2.4¢	Lost
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	$1	3.1¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	Yes	$0	0.7¢	Lost
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	Yes	$0	0.7¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$0	0.5¢	Lost
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$0	0.5¢	Lost
Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado?	No	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$2	3.7¢	Lost
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?	Yes	$0	0.9¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$0	1.2¢	Lost
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?	Yes	$0	0.9¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.9¢	Lost
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	$2	4.7¢	Lost
Will Gary Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$0	0.7¢	Lost
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?	No	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will Julie Gonzales be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado?	Yes	$0	1.5¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Epstein client list released by June 30?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	Yes	$0	0.8¢	Lost
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	$4	11.6¢	Lost
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.6¢	Lost
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?	No	$0	2.0¢	Lost
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	$0	0.7¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30?	Yes	$0	0.5¢	Lost
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?	Yes	$1	10.0¢	Lost
James Norton announced as next James Bond?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?	Yes	$0	2.6¢	Lost
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	Yes	$0	4.0¢	Lost
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$0	1.3¢	Lost
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost

Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Won
Yes$7 @ 63.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?Won
No$4 @ 86.6¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 4.7¢
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$0 @ 7.4¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$53 @ 86.7¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?Lost
No$0 @ 5.6¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.4¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.1¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.7¢
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.7¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.5¢
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.5¢
Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado?Lost
No$0 @ 1.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.7¢
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.9¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.2¢
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.9¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.9¢
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.7¢
Will Gary Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.7¢
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?Lost
No$0 @ 0.2¢
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will Julie Gonzales be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.5¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Epstein client list released by June 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Lost
Yes$4 @ 11.6¢
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.6¢
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?Lost
No$0 @ 2.0¢
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.7¢
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.5¢
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?Lost
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
James Norton announced as next James Bond?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 4.0¢
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
No$0 @ 0.3¢
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.3¢
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Geopolitics	No	$224	97.7¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$196	98.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$126	86.3¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$93	88.1¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$60	58.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Politics	No	$53	99.7¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$49	94.8¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	No	$47	94.3¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$45	86.2¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$45	82.7¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$43	82.6¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$42	90.9¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$39	96.6¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Politics	No	$37	95.5¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$35	55.5¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$34	79.6¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	No	$33	89.6¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$30	96.7¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$30	93.3¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	No	$29	66.6¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$29	82.9¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	—	No	$25	75.7¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Politics	No	$25	89.8¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Politics	No	$22	98.7¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Politics	No	$22	94.0¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$20	87.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$18	20.5¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Politics	No	$16	95.7¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$16	80.4¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$15	82.0¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
No$224 @ 97.7¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Politics
Yes$196 @ 98.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$126 @ 86.3¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$93 @ 88.1¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$60 @ 58.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Politics
No$53 @ 99.7¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
No$49 @ 94.8¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
No$47 @ 94.3¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$45 @ 86.2¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$45 @ 82.7¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$43 @ 82.6¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$42 @ 90.9¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$39 @ 96.6¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Politics
No$37 @ 95.5¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$35 @ 55.5¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$34 @ 79.6¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
No$33 @ 89.6¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?Politics
No$30 @ 96.7¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
No$30 @ 93.3¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
No$29 @ 66.6¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$29 @ 82.9¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?—
No$25 @ 75.7¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics
No$25 @ 89.8¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Politics
No$22 @ 98.7¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
No$22 @ 94.0¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$20 @ 87.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$18 @ 20.5¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?Politics
No$16 @ 95.7¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$16 @ 80.4¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$15 @ 82.0¢