0xb7de…b802

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.3pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

39% @ 35.7¢

Brier

0.168

Resolved

2951

Avg size

$47

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	51% (172/334)	+7%	334
Politics	63% (5/8)	-1%	8
Tech	67% (2/3)	-51%	3
Culture	33% (1/3)	-47%	3
Sports	100% (2/2)	+16%	2

Other334 bets
Hit rate
51% (172/334)
ROI
+7%
Politics8 bets
Hit rate
63% (5/8)
ROI
-1%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-51%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-47%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+16%

Track record

52% hit · 182/350

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$4	59.9¢	Won
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$54	62.0¢	Lost
Will 'King of Kings' make more than $24m on its domestic opening weekend?	No	$9	48.0¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$489	79.5¢	Lost
Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?	No	$58	66.0¢	Won
Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?	Yes	$433	33.3¢	Lost
Will Gladiator II gross more than $75m on opening weekend?	Yes	$50	10.0¢	Lost
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend?	No	$438	81.4¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	$141	47.0¢	Lost
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?	No	$1	2.3¢	Lost
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$10	7.0¢	Lost
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $70-75m opening weekend?	No	$213	85.0¢	Won
Will 'The Amateur' make less than $13m on its domestic opening weekend?	No	$425	85.0¢	Won
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend?	No	$648	77.2¢	Won
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend?	Yes	$94	6.2¢	Lost
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 8.5m?	No	$68	17.0¢	Lost
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 8.5m?	Yes	$940	75.1¢	Won
Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $64-73m?	Yes	$30	5.9¢	Lost
Will 'Moana 2' gross more than $180m on 5-day opening weekend?	Yes	$988	57.9¢	Won
Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $25m?	Yes	$239	6.6¢	Lost
Will "Love Hurts" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $5m?	No	$220	85.8¢	Won
Will "Love Hurts" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $5m?	Yes	$233	10.1¢	Lost
Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be $13m or more?	Yes	$135	1.5¢	Lost
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	$345	86.3¢	Won
Will 'Novocaine' gross between 7-9m on opening weekend?	No	$63	45.2¢	Lost
Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $15m?	Yes	$1.7k	62.4¢	Won
Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend?	No	$52	87.0¢	Won
Will 'Den of Thieves 2: Pantera' opening weekend gross $22m or more?	No	$9	89.9¢	Won
Will "Greenland 2: Migration" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13.5m?	Yes	$32	24.7¢	Lost
Will "Smurfs" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $11-13m?	No	$201	67.0¢	Lost
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 390m by January 31?	Yes	$62	77.0¢	Won
Will "Materialists" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $10m?	No	$955	68.2¢	Won
Will "Materialists" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $10m?	Yes	$40	20.0¢	Lost
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $135-145m?	Yes	$320	32.0¢	Lost
Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $82-91m?	No	$125	59.0¢	Lost
Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $82-91m?	Yes	$181	29.1¢	Won
Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $26-29m?	Yes	$26	13.0¢	Lost
Will 'Novocaine' gross more than 11m on opening weekend?	Yes	$160	6.6¢	Lost
Will 'Mickey 17' gross between 16-20m on its opening weekend?	Yes	$610	34.3¢	Won
Will "Love Hurts" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $11m?	No	$34	74.0¢	Won
Will "Love Hurts" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $11m?	Yes	$75	30.0¢	Lost
Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 18.5m and 21m?	No	$140	70.0¢	Won
Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 18.5m and 21m?	Yes	$209	20.7¢	Lost
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?	No	$750	89.0¢	Won
Will 'Minecraft' gross more than 120m on opening weekend?	No	$1.2k	13.6¢	Lost
Will Craig Federighi be the next CEO of Apple?	No	$50	88.6¢	Won
Will "The Phoenician Scheme" Opening Weekend Box Office be $7m or more?	No	$727	47.9¢	Won
Will "The Phoenician Scheme" Opening Weekend Box Office be $7m or more?	Yes	$215	43.0¢	Lost
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?	Yes	$43	3.7¢	Lost
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gross on March 15?	No	$172	77.9¢	Won

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
No$4 @ 59.9¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
No$54 @ 62.0¢
Will 'King of Kings' make more than $24m on its domestic opening weekend?Won
No$9 @ 48.0¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$489 @ 79.5¢
Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?Won
No$58 @ 66.0¢
Will "GOAT" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?Lost
Yes$433 @ 33.3¢
Will Gladiator II gross more than $75m on opening weekend?Lost
Yes$50 @ 10.0¢
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend?Won
No$438 @ 81.4¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
No$141 @ 47.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?Lost
No$1 @ 2.3¢
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$10 @ 7.0¢
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $70-75m opening weekend?Won
No$213 @ 85.0¢
Will 'The Amateur' make less than $13m on its domestic opening weekend?Won
No$425 @ 85.0¢
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend?Won
No$648 @ 77.2¢
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend?Lost
Yes$94 @ 6.2¢
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 8.5m?Lost
No$68 @ 17.0¢
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 8.5m?Won
Yes$940 @ 75.1¢
Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $64-73m?Lost
Yes$30 @ 5.9¢
Will 'Moana 2' gross more than $180m on 5-day opening weekend?Won
Yes$988 @ 57.9¢
Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $25m?Lost
Yes$239 @ 6.6¢
Will "Love Hurts" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $5m?Won
No$220 @ 85.8¢
Will "Love Hurts" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $5m?Lost
Yes$233 @ 10.1¢
Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be $13m or more?Lost
Yes$135 @ 1.5¢
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?Won
No$345 @ 86.3¢
Will 'Novocaine' gross between 7-9m on opening weekend?Lost
No$63 @ 45.2¢
Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $15m?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 62.4¢
Will 'Sonic 3' gross less than $56m on 3-day opening weekend?Won
No$52 @ 87.0¢
Will 'Den of Thieves 2: Pantera' opening weekend gross $22m or more?Won
No$9 @ 89.9¢
Will "Greenland 2: Migration" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13.5m?Lost
Yes$32 @ 24.7¢
Will "Smurfs" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $11-13m?Lost
No$201 @ 67.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 390m by January 31?Won
Yes$62 @ 77.0¢
Will "Materialists" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $10m?Won
No$955 @ 68.2¢
Will "Materialists" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $10m?Lost
Yes$40 @ 20.0¢
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $135-145m?Lost
Yes$320 @ 32.0¢
Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $82-91m?Lost
No$125 @ 59.0¢
Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $82-91m?Won
Yes$181 @ 29.1¢
Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $26-29m?Lost
Yes$26 @ 13.0¢
Will 'Novocaine' gross more than 11m on opening weekend?Lost
Yes$160 @ 6.6¢
Will 'Mickey 17' gross between 16-20m on its opening weekend?Won
Yes$610 @ 34.3¢
Will "Love Hurts" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $11m?Won
No$34 @ 74.0¢
Will "Love Hurts" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $11m?Lost
Yes$75 @ 30.0¢
Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 18.5m and 21m?Won
No$140 @ 70.0¢
Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 18.5m and 21m?Lost
Yes$209 @ 20.7¢
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?Won
No$750 @ 89.0¢
Will 'Minecraft' gross more than 120m on opening weekend?Lost
No$1.2k @ 13.6¢
Will Craig Federighi be the next CEO of Apple?Won
No$50 @ 88.6¢
Will "The Phoenician Scheme" Opening Weekend Box Office be $7m or more?Won
No$727 @ 47.9¢
Will "The Phoenician Scheme" Opening Weekend Box Office be $7m or more?Lost
Yes$215 @ 43.0¢
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?Lost
Yes$43 @ 3.7¢
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gross on March 15?Won
No$172 @ 77.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$1.1k	93.0¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Culture	Yes	$996	55.2¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$621	24.4¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	Business	Yes	$438	73.0¢
JD Vance 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?	Politics	Yes	$328	82.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Business	Yes	$231	77.0¢
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Culture	Yes	$195	6.8¢
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$173	98.9¢
Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$169	0.8¢
Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$169	0.8¢
Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$169	0.8¢
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$169	0.8¢
Will Candace Owens win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$169	0.8¢
Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$169	0.8¢
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$169	0.8¢
Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$169	0.8¢
Will Josh Stein win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$169	0.8¢
Will Rick Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$169	0.8¢
Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$169	0.8¢
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$168	0.8¢
Will Tim Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$120	0.8¢
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$99	0.8¢
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$98	0.8¢
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Culture	No	$98	98.7¢
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$92	0.8¢
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$87	0.8¢
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$82	0.8¢
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$82	0.8¢
Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$79	79.0¢
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$78	0.8¢

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$1.1k @ 93.0¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Culture
Yes$996 @ 55.2¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Culture
Yes$621 @ 24.4¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Business
Yes$438 @ 73.0¢
JD Vance 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?Politics
Yes$328 @ 82.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Business
Yes$231 @ 77.0¢
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?Culture
Yes$195 @ 6.8¢
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
No$173 @ 98.9¢
Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$169 @ 0.8¢
Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$169 @ 0.8¢
Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$169 @ 0.8¢
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$169 @ 0.8¢
Will Candace Owens win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$169 @ 0.8¢
Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$169 @ 0.8¢
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$169 @ 0.8¢
Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$169 @ 0.8¢
Will Josh Stein win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$169 @ 0.8¢
Will Rick Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$169 @ 0.8¢
Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$169 @ 0.8¢
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$168 @ 0.8¢
Will Tim Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$120 @ 0.8¢
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$99 @ 0.8¢
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$98 @ 0.8¢
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026?Culture
No$98 @ 98.7¢
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$92 @ 0.8¢
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$87 @ 0.8¢
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$82 @ 0.8¢
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$82 @ 0.8¢
Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Culture
Yes$79 @ 79.0¢
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$78 @ 0.8¢