0xb615…73cf

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Politics105 bets

  Hit rate

  56% (59/105)

  ROI

  +24%

• Geopolitics15 bets

  Hit rate

  60% (9/15)

  ROI

  +21%

• Other14 bets

  Hit rate

  64% (9/14)

  ROI

  +53%

• Tech4 bets

  Hit rate

  75% (3/4)

  ROI

  +33%

• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Lost
  No$370 @ 37.0¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Lost
  No$360 @ 36.0¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Won
  No$860 @ 86.0¢
• Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Won
  No$353 @ 39.2¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$550 @ 55.0¢
• Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Won
  No$1.1k @ 73.2¢
• Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Won
  No$136 @ 50.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$1.3k @ 53.3¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$512 @ 78.5¢
• Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?Won
  No$476 @ 55.4¢
• Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?Won
  Yes$440 @ 56.0¢
• Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?Won
  No$804 @ 80.4¢
• Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?Lost
  No$208 @ 25.9¢
• Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
  No$128 @ 17.8¢
• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$682 @ 75.8¢
• Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
  No$93 @ 30.9¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
  No$132 @ 82.5¢
• Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
  Yes$35 @ 29.8¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$29 @ 73.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$8 @ 20.5¢
• Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 3.0¢
• Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Lost
  No$19 @ 20.0¢
• Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Lost
  No$47 @ 15.0¢
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$690 @ 69.0¢
• Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$654 @ 71.0¢
• Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31?Lost
  No$389 @ 29.9¢
• Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
  No$136 @ 26.5¢
• Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Lost
  Yes$18 @ 14.7¢
• US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Won
  No$160 @ 79.8¢
• US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Lost
  Yes$34 @ 24.4¢
• Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Lost
  No$243 @ 30.4¢
• Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Lost
  No$70 @ 13.6¢
• Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?Won
  Yes$362 @ 71.8¢
• US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Won
  No$132 @ 33.0¢
• Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?Won
  No$205 @ 41.2¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Won
  No$14 @ 68.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
  Yes$7 @ 36.0¢
• Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$77 @ 15.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
  No$18 @ 88.0¢
• Will Mykola Kuleba win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Won
  No$249 @ 83.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
  No$315 @ 63.0¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Won
  No$10 @ 68.0¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Lost
  Yes$23 @ 38.9¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$80 @ 49.7¢
• Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
  No$330 @ 33.0¢
• US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
  No$1.7k @ 48.5¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?Won
  No$18 @ 89.5¢
• Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?Won
  No$16 @ 82.0¢
• Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
  No$410 @ 82.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
  No$332 @ 83.0¢

Current positions

• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$3.6k @ 74.8¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$2.3k @ 57.0¢
• Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Politics
  No$1.7k @ 49.7¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?Politics
  No$1.0k @ 68.5¢
• US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?Politics
  No$1.0k @ 67.3¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
  No$960 @ 80.0¢
• Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$926 @ 75.6¢
• Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$896 @ 74.7¢
• Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$880 @ 88.0¢
• Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Politics
  No$860 @ 86.0¢
• Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by March 31, 2027?Politics
  No$800 @ 80.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?Politics
  No$729 @ 77.0¢
• Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?Politics
  No$676 @ 52.0¢
• Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?Politics
  No$605 @ 78.2¢
• Will no next Israeli Minister of Finance be appointed by February 28, 2027?Politics
  No$603 @ 60.3¢
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$579 @ 68.1¢
• Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$553 @ 79.0¢
• Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 15, 2027?Politics
  No$553 @ 51.2¢
• Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$540 @ 67.5¢
• Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?Politics
  No$462 @ 77.0¢
• Will Talya Lankri be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?Politics
  No$449 @ 88.4¢
• Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + Maori?Politics
  No$415 @ 83.0¢
• Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026?Politics
  No$397 @ 30.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Politics
  No$385 @ 55.0¢
• EU country expels Russian ambassador by December 31?Politics
  No$383 @ 81.0¢
• Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$366 @ 74.0¢
• Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$355 @ 71.0¢
• Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 31, 2027?Politics
  No$350 @ 35.0¢
• Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg?Politics
  No$347 @ 34.7¢
• Will Yair Lapid be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?Politics
  No$341 @ 74.0¢