0xb615…73cf

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb615db2a571fccbe4616da82fb05c47c60c173cf
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.8pp

ROI

+21%

Win rate

66% @ 51.8¢

Brier

0.152

Resolved

282

Avg size

$76

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	52% (33/63)	+9%	63
Other	64% (9/14)	+53%	14
Geopolitics	62% (8/13)	+21%	13
Tech	100% (1/1)	+59%	1

Politics63 bets
Hit rate
52% (33/63)
ROI
+9%
Other14 bets
Hit rate
64% (9/14)
ROI
+53%
Geopolitics13 bets
Hit rate
62% (8/13)
ROI
+21%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+59%

Track record

56% hit · 51/91

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$128	17.8¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	$682	75.8¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	No	$93	30.9¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$132	82.5¢	Won
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$35	29.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$29	73.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$8	20.5¢	Lost
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	$3	3.0¢	Lost
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?	No	$19	20.0¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	No	$47	15.0¢	Lost
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	No	$690	69.0¢	Won
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31?	No	$389	29.9¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$136	26.5¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	Yes	$18	14.7¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	$160	79.8¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	$34	24.4¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	$243	30.4¢	Lost
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	No	$70	13.6¢	Lost
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	$132	33.0¢	Won
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?	No	$205	41.2¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	$14	68.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$7	36.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$18	88.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$315	63.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	$10	68.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	$23	38.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$80	49.7¢	Won
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	$330	33.0¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$1.7k	48.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	$18	89.5¢	Won
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?	No	$16	82.0¢	Won
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$410	82.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$332	83.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$7	69.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$39	35.8¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?	Yes	$15	14.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?	No	$482	34.4¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$19	11.8¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$30	30.1¢	Lost
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$50	16.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	$672	84.0¢	Won
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	No	$78	39.0¢	Won
Will Michael Katz be the Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware?	No	$1	12.0¢	Lost
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?	No	$634	57.6¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$836	83.6¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	No	$819	81.9¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	Yes	$40	8.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$20	81.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$14	36.2¢	Lost
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?	No	$670	67.0¢	Won

Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
No$128 @ 17.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Won
No$682 @ 75.8¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
No$93 @ 30.9¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$132 @ 82.5¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$35 @ 29.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$29 @ 73.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 20.5¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.0¢
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Lost
No$19 @ 20.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Lost
No$47 @ 15.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Won
No$690 @ 69.0¢
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31?Lost
No$389 @ 29.9¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
No$136 @ 26.5¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Lost
Yes$18 @ 14.7¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Won
No$160 @ 79.8¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Lost
Yes$34 @ 24.4¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Lost
No$243 @ 30.4¢
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Lost
No$70 @ 13.6¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Won
No$132 @ 33.0¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?Won
No$205 @ 41.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Won
No$14 @ 68.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 36.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
No$18 @ 88.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$315 @ 63.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Won
No$10 @ 68.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Lost
Yes$23 @ 38.9¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$80 @ 49.7¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
No$330 @ 33.0¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$1.7k @ 48.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?Won
No$18 @ 89.5¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?Won
No$16 @ 82.0¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$410 @ 82.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$332 @ 83.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$7 @ 69.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$39 @ 35.8¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 14.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Lost
No$482 @ 34.4¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$19 @ 11.8¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Lost
Yes$30 @ 30.1¢
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
Yes$50 @ 16.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?Won
No$672 @ 84.0¢
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Won
No$78 @ 39.0¢
Will Michael Katz be the Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware?Lost
No$1 @ 12.0¢
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?Won
No$634 @ 57.6¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
No$836 @ 83.6¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Won
No$819 @ 81.9¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Lost
Yes$40 @ 8.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$20 @ 81.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$14 @ 36.2¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?Won
No$670 @ 67.0¢

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