0xb4f6…eada

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb4f655b9314dd464b42da40f82a1df65375feada
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Edge

-6.0pp

ROI

-54%

Win rate

10% @ 15.7¢

Brier

0.054

Resolved

267

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	61% (35/57)	-2%	57
Other	76% (32/42)	-1%	42
Sports	59% (23/39)	+16%	39
Geopolitics	62% (13/21)	-23%	21
Tech	86% (12/14)	+15%	14
Culture	80% (4/5)	-26%	5
Crypto	80% (4/5)	-2%	5
Business	100% (1/1)	+1%	1

Politics57 bets
Hit rate
61% (35/57)
ROI
-2%
Other42 bets
Hit rate
76% (32/42)
ROI
-1%
Sports39 bets
Hit rate
59% (23/39)
ROI
+16%
Geopolitics21 bets
Hit rate
62% (13/21)
ROI
-23%
Tech14 bets
Hit rate
86% (12/14)
ROI
+15%
Culture5 bets
Hit rate
80% (4/5)
ROI
-26%
Crypto5 bets
Hit rate
80% (4/5)
ROI
-2%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+1%

Track record

67% hit · 124/184

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$4	4.0¢	Lost
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$8	88.0¢	Won
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	$82	33.4¢	Lost
Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?	Yes	$2	13.1¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$31	0.8¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?	No	$4	2.0¢	Lost
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	$11	51.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 15?	No	$13	4.3¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	Yes	$1	2.1¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	$9	86.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	Yes	$85	11.6¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$33	23.5¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$100	35.6¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$23	4.5¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$38	12.4¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	$58	1.5¢	Lost
Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31?	Yes	$2	2.1¢	Lost
Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	3.0¢	Lost
Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$4	3.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$28	85.0¢	Won
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?	Yes	$75	7.5¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	Yes	$6	1.3¢	Lost
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$18	1.1¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?	Yes	$1	3.2¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	Yes	$36	5.9¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	$4	89.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$30	7.7¢	Lost
Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?	No	$20	83.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	No	$11	4.8¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?	No	$3	62.9¢	Won
Will Iran target Qatar by September 15, 2026?	Yes	$2	32.0¢	Lost
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$6	38.5¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	Yes	$8	6.4¢	Lost
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	No	$11	88.6¢	Won
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	Yes	$13	5.6¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?	Yes	$2	1.1¢	Lost
Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	No	$8	81.0¢	Won
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	Yes	$7	2.4¢	Lost
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	$7	78.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$30	82.8¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$60	18.4¢	Lost
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?	No	$60	95.7¢	Won
Over $75M committed to the Credible public sale?	No	$30	96.0¢	Won
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$60	7.5¢	Lost
Will Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	$60	99.3¢	Won
Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	$30	98.1¢	Won
US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?	No	$3	98.7¢	Won
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$60	10.4¢	Won
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$90	98.9¢	Won

Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$4 @ 4.0¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Won
No$8 @ 88.0¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Lost
Yes$82 @ 33.4¢
Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?Lost
Yes$2 @ 13.1¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$31 @ 0.8¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?Lost
No$4 @ 2.0¢
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Lost
Yes$11 @ 51.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 15?Lost
No$13 @ 4.3¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Won
No$9 @ 86.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$85 @ 11.6¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$33 @ 23.5¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$100 @ 35.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$23 @ 4.5¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$38 @ 12.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
Yes$58 @ 1.5¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.1¢
Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 3.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$28 @ 85.0¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?Lost
Yes$75 @ 7.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.3¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$18 @ 1.1¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.2¢
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Lost
Yes$36 @ 5.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 89.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$30 @ 7.7¢
Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?Lost
No$20 @ 83.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Lost
No$11 @ 4.8¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?Won
No$3 @ 62.9¢
Will Iran target Qatar by September 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 32.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 38.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 6.4¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?Won
No$11 @ 88.6¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?Lost
Yes$13 @ 5.6¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.1¢
Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?Won
No$8 @ 81.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Lost
Yes$7 @ 2.4¢
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$7 @ 78.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$30 @ 82.8¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$60 @ 18.4¢
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?Won
No$60 @ 95.7¢
Over $75M committed to the Credible public sale?Won
No$30 @ 96.0¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$60 @ 7.5¢
Will Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Won
Yes$60 @ 99.3¢
Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Won
Yes$30 @ 98.1¢
US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?Won
No$3 @ 98.7¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$60 @ 10.4¢
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$90 @ 98.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$125	81.9¢
Trump goes to space in 2026?	Politics	No	$70	97.0¢
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	No	$70	99.0¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	No	$70	91.1¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$70	16.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$65	46.3¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$60	80.0¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Politics	No	$60	80.5¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Politics	No	$60	70.4¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Business	No	$60	63.9¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$60	80.5¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$60	95.5¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Politics	No	$60	70.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$60	37.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$60	65.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$60	78.0¢
Will Donald Trump visit Pakistan in 2026?	Politics	No	$59	89.7¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$53	74.4¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Politics	No	$53	91.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$49	32.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	Business	No	$46	93.3¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$42	89.9¢
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$38	85.7¢
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?	Politics	No	$37	86.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$35	97.4¢
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$30	99.0¢
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2026?	Politics	No	$30	81.4¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$24	50.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$24	50.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$20	76.0¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$125 @ 81.9¢
Trump goes to space in 2026?Politics
No$70 @ 97.0¢
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
No$70 @ 99.0¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
No$70 @ 91.1¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$70 @ 16.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$65 @ 46.3¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Politics
Yes$60 @ 80.0¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Politics
No$60 @ 80.5¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Politics
No$60 @ 70.4¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Business
No$60 @ 63.9¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$60 @ 80.5¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$60 @ 95.5¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
No$60 @ 70.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$60 @ 37.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$60 @ 65.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$60 @ 78.0¢
Will Donald Trump visit Pakistan in 2026?Politics
No$59 @ 89.7¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$53 @ 74.4¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
No$53 @ 91.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$49 @ 32.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Business
No$46 @ 93.3¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$42 @ 89.9¢
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$38 @ 85.7¢
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?Politics
No$37 @ 86.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$35 @ 97.4¢
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$30 @ 99.0¢
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2026?Politics
No$30 @ 81.4¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$24 @ 50.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$24 @ 50.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$20 @ 76.0¢