0xb23e…829a

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb23e88a3e729951c1992b361435a5c410fcf829a
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.2pp

ROI

+25%

Win rate

58% @ 51.5¢

Brier

0.190

Resolved

665

Avg size

$100

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	61% (68/111)	+14%	111
Politics	55% (6/11)	+45%	11
Sports	71% (5/7)	+114%	7
Crypto	33% (1/3)	+57%	3
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+51%	2
Culture	50% (1/2)	+37%	2
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other111 bets
Hit rate
61% (68/111)
ROI
+14%
Politics11 bets
Hit rate
55% (6/11)
ROI
+45%
Sports7 bets
Hit rate
71% (5/7)
ROI
+114%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+57%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+51%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+37%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

61% hit · 83/137

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$993	77.7¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$67	66.8¢	Lost
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance	Argentina	$453	75.5¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FURIA (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs	Vitality	$262	65.5¢	Won
Houston vs. Texas Tech	Texas Tech	$208	67.0¢	Won
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$370	72.6¢	Won
Will England win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	$190	50.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$929	75.6¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$348	21.7¢	Won
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?	No	$494	70.6¢	Won
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?	Yes	$4	1.5¢	Lost
Cowboys vs. Giants	Cowboys	$119	59.5¢	Lost
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?	Yes	$160	80.0¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	No	$83	43.0¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	Yes	$124	62.2¢	Won
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	No	$149	49.5¢	Won
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$963	68.6¢	Won
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	$60	12.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$2.3k	73.1¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$54	30.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Golf" or "Golfer" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?	Yes	$452	67.8¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	No	$534	89.0¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$376	74.5¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?	Yes	$48	32.3¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	Yes	$750	75.0¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	$40	4.0¢	Lost
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner	T1	$162	54.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?	No	$865	34.8¢	Lost
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?	Yes	$76	76.0¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	$190	76.1¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs Bounty Hunters Esports (BO3) - Circuit X Curitiba Playoffs	Galorys	$63	63.0¢	Lost
Valorant: Team Falcons VEGA vs Gen.G GC (BO5) - VCT Game Changers Pacific Playoffs	Team Falcons VEGA	$77	41.7¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$1.2k	78.1¢	Won
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Cameron Nelson (Welterweight, Prelims)	Cameron Nelson	$63	42.0¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$618	60.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$1.3k	29.1¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$906	60.0¢	Won
Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	$346	69.2¢	Won
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 30 minutes long?	No	$1.0k	73.2¢	Won
UFC Fight Night: Morgan Charrière vs. Felipe Lima (Featherweight, Main Card)	Felipe Lima	$160	65.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$6.9k	70.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	$155	23.8¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	No	$186	86.4¢	Lost
Phan Thiet 4: Ilia Simakin vs Hunter Heck	Ilia Simakin	$70	70.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$1.7k	84.8¢	Won
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 4, 2026?	Yes	$47	45.7¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$670	67.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?	No	$575	76.7¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	Yes	$335	67.0¢	Won
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	$1.0k	62.3¢	Lost

Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
No$993 @ 77.7¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$67 @ 66.8¢
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to AdvanceWon
Argentina$453 @ 75.5¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FURIA (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries PlayoffsWon
Vitality$262 @ 65.5¢
Houston vs. Texas TechWon
Texas Tech$208 @ 67.0¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$370 @ 72.6¢
Will England win on 2026-07-11?Lost
Yes$190 @ 50.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$929 @ 75.6¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$348 @ 21.7¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?Won
No$494 @ 70.6¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?Lost
Yes$4 @ 1.5¢
Cowboys vs. GiantsLost
Cowboys$119 @ 59.5¢
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?Won
Yes$160 @ 80.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Lost
No$83 @ 43.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Won
Yes$124 @ 62.2¢
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Won
No$149 @ 49.5¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Won
No$963 @ 68.6¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Lost
Yes$60 @ 12.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$2.3k @ 73.1¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$54 @ 30.0¢
Will Trump say "Golf" or "Golfer" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?Won
Yes$452 @ 67.8¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Won
No$534 @ 89.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$376 @ 74.5¢
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?Won
Yes$48 @ 32.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Won
Yes$750 @ 75.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Lost
Yes$40 @ 4.0¢
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 WinnerLost
T1$162 @ 54.0¢
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?Lost
No$865 @ 34.8¢
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?Won
Yes$76 @ 76.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Won
No$190 @ 76.1¢
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs Bounty Hunters Esports (BO3) - Circuit X Curitiba PlayoffsLost
Galorys$63 @ 63.0¢
Valorant: Team Falcons VEGA vs Gen.G GC (BO5) - VCT Game Changers Pacific PlayoffsLost
Team Falcons VEGA$77 @ 41.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$1.2k @ 78.1¢
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Cameron Nelson (Welterweight, Prelims)Won
Cameron Nelson$63 @ 42.0¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$618 @ 60.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$1.3k @ 29.1¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$906 @ 60.0¢
Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Won
Yes$346 @ 69.2¢
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 30 minutes long?Won
No$1.0k @ 73.2¢
UFC Fight Night: Morgan Charrière vs. Felipe Lima (Featherweight, Main Card)Won
Felipe Lima$160 @ 65.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$6.9k @ 70.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$155 @ 23.8¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Lost
No$186 @ 86.4¢
Phan Thiet 4: Ilia Simakin vs Hunter HeckWon
Ilia Simakin$70 @ 70.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$1.7k @ 84.8¢
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 4, 2026?Lost
Yes$47 @ 45.7¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$670 @ 67.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?Won
No$575 @ 76.7¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?Won
Yes$335 @ 67.0¢
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$1.0k @ 62.3¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Politics	No	$1.8k	58.5¢
Will ANSEM flip PUMP by December 31, 2026?	—	No	$617	73.3¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Tech	No	$317	53.0¢
Will $ANSEM reach $0.8 before 2027?	—	No	$23	53.0¢

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
No$1.8k @ 58.5¢
Will ANSEM flip PUMP by December 31, 2026?—
No$617 @ 73.3¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Tech
No$317 @ 53.0¢
Will $ANSEM reach $0.8 before 2027?—
No$23 @ 53.0¢