0xb23e…829a

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb23e88a3e729951c1992b361435a5c410fcf829a
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.0pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

57% @ 52.8¢

Brier

0.187

Resolved

1639

Avg size

$81

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	68% (201/295)	+10%	295
Politics	73% (118/161)	+19%	161
Sports	59% (54/91)	+30%	91
Culture	63% (24/38)	+21%	38
Tech	63% (19/30)	-16%	30
Business	50% (15/30)	+31%	30
Geopolitics	80% (20/25)	+22%	25
Science	57% (4/7)	-61%	7
Crypto	29% (2/7)	-2%	7
Economy	100% (3/3)	+135%	3

Other295 bets
Hit rate
68% (201/295)
ROI
+10%
Politics161 bets
Hit rate
73% (118/161)
ROI
+19%
Sports91 bets
Hit rate
59% (54/91)
ROI
+30%
Culture38 bets
Hit rate
63% (24/38)
ROI
+21%
Tech30 bets
Hit rate
63% (19/30)
ROI
-16%
Business30 bets
Hit rate
50% (15/30)
ROI
+31%
Geopolitics25 bets
Hit rate
80% (20/25)
ROI
+22%
Science7 bets
Hit rate
57% (4/7)
ROI
-61%
Crypto7 bets
Hit rate
29% (2/7)
ROI
-2%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+135%

Track record

67% hit · 460/687

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will AMD say "Debt" during earnings call?	Yes	$31	54.6¢	Won
Turek flips Hinson for Iowa Senate by November 2?	No	$302	60.4¢	Lost
Will Sysco (SYY) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$25	25.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Mark Rutte by October 31, 2026?	No	$38	91.5¢	Won
Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut win 6% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	$325	65.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	$138	55.4¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	$72	24.0¢	Won
Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 14m?	No	$211	69.7¢	Won
Anthropic vs OpenAI - greater valuation growth October 2026	OpenAI	$57	96.9¢	Won
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $9.25B by October 31?	No	$9	97.0¢	Won
Will Apple (AAPL) Q4 Greater China revenue be above $20B?	No	$18	88.0¢	Won
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22B by October 31?	No	$64	89.7¢	Won
Will Hinge Health (HNGE) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$171	62.5¢	Lost
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $31B by October 31?	No	$142	93.3¢	Won
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $172.5B by October 31?	No	$45	94.0¢	Won
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $27B by October 31?	No	$107	71.2¢	Won
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $95B by October 31?	No	$77	94.2¢	Won
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $6.5B by October 31?	No	$5	96.0¢	Won
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $20.5B by October 31?	No	$77	91.4¢	Won
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $167.5B by October 31?	No	$19	94.0¢	Won
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $8.5B by October 31?	No	$74	91.5¢	Won
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $132.5B by October 31?	No	$204	84.0¢	Won
Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $7.25B by October 31?	No	$38	96.0¢	Won
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $122.5B by October 31?	No	$228	85.1¢	Won
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $10.25B by October 31?	No	$95	78.8¢	Won
Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $7B by October 31?	No	$54	94.0¢	Won
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $11.5B by October 31?	No	$325	80.8¢	Won
Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut win less than 3.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	$27	89.4¢	Won
Will Marriott (MAR) Q3 worldwide RevPAR be above $137?	No	$127	62.4¢	Lost
Will Amcha Yisrael win less than 2.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	$167	27.8¢	Won
Will Marriott (MAR) Q3 worldwide RevPAR be above $138.5?	No	$32	82.3¢	Won
Will Amcha Yisrael win 3.25-4% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	$76	82.0¢	Won
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on October 31, 2026?	No	$30	76.0¢	Won
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	$83	27.0¢	Lost
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	$288	68.1¢	Won
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.60 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	$127	91.2¢	Won
Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $5.50 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	$128	65.2¢	Won
Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.00 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	$93	56.4¢	Won
Will Amcha Yisrael win 4-5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	$356	70.4¢	Won
Will OpenRouter process 205T or more tokens the week of October 26?	Yes	$42	11.4¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Gianni Infantino by October 31, 2026?	No	$57	94.5¢	Won
Will Together win 13% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	$374	85.6¢	Won
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 110m by October 31?	No	$110	35.1¢	Won
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 116m by October 31?	No	$15	77.0¢	Won
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 119m by October 31?	No	$155	82.0¢	Won
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 113m by October 31?	No	$17	42.0¢	Won
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 122m by October 31?	No	$176	88.0¢	Won
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	$421	84.1¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Kim Jong Un by October 31, 2026?	No	$105	91.4¢	Won
Will Trump say "Cucumber" in October?	No	$6	97.0¢	Won

Will AMD say "Debt" during earnings call?Won
Yes$31 @ 54.6¢
Turek flips Hinson for Iowa Senate by November 2?Lost
No$302 @ 60.4¢
Will Sysco (SYY) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$25 @ 25.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Mark Rutte by October 31, 2026?Won
No$38 @ 91.5¢
Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut win 6% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Won
No$325 @ 65.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?Won
No$138 @ 55.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Won
No$72 @ 24.0¢
Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 14m?Won
No$211 @ 69.7¢
Anthropic vs OpenAI - greater valuation growth October 2026Won
OpenAI$57 @ 96.9¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $9.25B by October 31?Won
No$9 @ 97.0¢
Will Apple (AAPL) Q4 Greater China revenue be above $20B?Won
No$18 @ 88.0¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22B by October 31?Won
No$64 @ 89.7¢
Will Hinge Health (HNGE) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$171 @ 62.5¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $31B by October 31?Won
No$142 @ 93.3¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $172.5B by October 31?Won
No$45 @ 94.0¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $27B by October 31?Won
No$107 @ 71.2¢
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $95B by October 31?Won
No$77 @ 94.2¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $6.5B by October 31?Won
No$5 @ 96.0¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $20.5B by October 31?Won
No$77 @ 91.4¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $167.5B by October 31?Won
No$19 @ 94.0¢
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $8.5B by October 31?Won
No$74 @ 91.5¢
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $132.5B by October 31?Won
No$204 @ 84.0¢
Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $7.25B by October 31?Won
No$38 @ 96.0¢
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $122.5B by October 31?Won
No$228 @ 85.1¢
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $10.25B by October 31?Won
No$95 @ 78.8¢
Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $7B by October 31?Won
No$54 @ 94.0¢
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $11.5B by October 31?Won
No$325 @ 80.8¢
Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut win less than 3.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Won
No$27 @ 89.4¢
Will Marriott (MAR) Q3 worldwide RevPAR be above $137?Lost
No$127 @ 62.4¢
Will Amcha Yisrael win less than 2.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Won
Yes$167 @ 27.8¢
Will Marriott (MAR) Q3 worldwide RevPAR be above $138.5?Won
No$32 @ 82.3¢
Will Amcha Yisrael win 3.25-4% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Won
No$76 @ 82.0¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on October 31, 2026?Won
No$30 @ 76.0¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$83 @ 27.0¢
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$288 @ 68.1¢
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.60 on October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$127 @ 91.2¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $5.50 on October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$128 @ 65.2¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.00 on October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$93 @ 56.4¢
Will Amcha Yisrael win 4-5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Won
No$356 @ 70.4¢
Will OpenRouter process 205T or more tokens the week of October 26?Lost
Yes$42 @ 11.4¢
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Gianni Infantino by October 31, 2026?Won
No$57 @ 94.5¢
Will Together win 13% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Won
No$374 @ 85.6¢
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 110m by October 31?Won
No$110 @ 35.1¢
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 116m by October 31?Won
No$15 @ 77.0¢
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 119m by October 31?Won
No$155 @ 82.0¢
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 113m by October 31?Won
No$17 @ 42.0¢
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 122m by October 31?Won
No$176 @ 88.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?Lost
No$421 @ 84.1¢
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Kim Jong Un by October 31, 2026?Won
No$105 @ 91.4¢
Will Trump say "Cucumber" in October?Won
No$6 @ 97.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by November 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$1.3k	67.2¢
Will Republicans win the Texas, Michigan, and Maine Senate seats?	Politics	No	$1.2k	80.7¢
Will Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$1.1k	83.5¢
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$985	65.7¢
Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	Politics	Yes	$742	56.4¢
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by December 31?	Tech	No	$727	79.9¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$690	92.0¢
Will Cameron Ward have 18.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Sports	No	$684	76.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$640	69.4¢
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 31M tonnes at end of December 2026?	Politics	Yes	$601	73.2¢
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Tabasco Congress election?	Politics	Yes	$581	74.1¢
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 33M tonnes at end of November 2026?	Politics	Yes	$575	49.4¢
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?	Tech	No	$562	71.7¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AL-05 House election by 40% or more?	Politics	No	$548	91.0¢
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?	Politics	No	$542	89.1¢
Will Russia enter Bilozerske by November 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$536	74.5¢
Closer Governor Race: New York or Pennsylvania?	Politics	New York	$515	73.5¢
Will there be exactly 6 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$514	62.7¢
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 32M tonnes at end of December 2026?	Politics	Yes	$482	56.6¢
Will it snow in Salt Lake City, UT by October 31?	Science	No	$469	97.0¢
Will Khalil Shakir have 1,049.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Sports	No	$454	76.2¢
Will Iván Mordisco be arrested in 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$421	82.1¢
Turek flips Hinson for Iowa Senate by November 2?	Politics	No	$413	64.1¢
Will Ra'am be in the next Israeli government?	Politics	No	$385	77.0¢
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 21, 2026?	Tech	No	$379	85.2¢
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the #1 US song this week?	Culture	Yes	$375	82.0¢
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $5.5B by December 31?	Other	No	$374	56.6¢
Will Trump meet with Mark Carney by November 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$369	58.4¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 18% or more?	Politics	No	$358	71.7¢
Will it snow in Salt Lake City, UT by November 30?	Science	Yes	$350	80.9¢

Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by November 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$1.3k @ 67.2¢
Will Republicans win the Texas, Michigan, and Maine Senate seats?Politics
No$1.2k @ 80.7¢
Will Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?Geopolitics
No$1.1k @ 83.5¢
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$985 @ 65.7¢
Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?Politics
Yes$742 @ 56.4¢
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by December 31?Tech
No$727 @ 79.9¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$690 @ 92.0¢
Will Cameron Ward have 18.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?Sports
No$684 @ 76.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$640 @ 69.4¢
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 31M tonnes at end of December 2026?Politics
Yes$601 @ 73.2¢
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Tabasco Congress election?Politics
Yes$581 @ 74.1¢
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 33M tonnes at end of November 2026?Politics
Yes$575 @ 49.4¢
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?Tech
No$562 @ 71.7¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AL-05 House election by 40% or more?Politics
No$548 @ 91.0¢
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?Politics
No$542 @ 89.1¢
Will Russia enter Bilozerske by November 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$536 @ 74.5¢
Closer Governor Race: New York or Pennsylvania?Politics
New York$515 @ 73.5¢
Will there be exactly 6 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?Politics
Yes$514 @ 62.7¢
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 32M tonnes at end of December 2026?Politics
Yes$482 @ 56.6¢
Will it snow in Salt Lake City, UT by October 31?Science
No$469 @ 97.0¢
Will Khalil Shakir have 1,049.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?Sports
No$454 @ 76.2¢
Will Iván Mordisco be arrested in 2026?Geopolitics
No$421 @ 82.1¢
Turek flips Hinson for Iowa Senate by November 2?Politics
No$413 @ 64.1¢
Will Ra'am be in the next Israeli government?Politics
No$385 @ 77.0¢
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 21, 2026?Tech
No$379 @ 85.2¢
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the #1 US song this week?Culture
Yes$375 @ 82.0¢
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $5.5B by December 31?Other
No$374 @ 56.6¢
Will Trump meet with Mark Carney by November 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$369 @ 58.4¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 18% or more?Politics
No$358 @ 71.7¢
Will it snow in Salt Lake City, UT by November 30?Science
Yes$350 @ 80.9¢