0xb03e…1091

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb03e9b1a6632e4018639a24ba89f7b62e09c1091
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.5pp

ROI

+9%

Win rate

74% @ 68.5¢

Brier

0.163

Resolved

565

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	65% (100/154)	+9%	154
Politics	67% (48/72)	+9%	72
Sports	85% (11/13)	+31%	13
Geopolitics	57% (4/7)	-17%	7
Economy	57% (4/7)	+10%	7
Tech	100% (4/4)	+26%	4
Crypto	50% (2/4)	+27%	4
Business	100% (2/2)	+26%	2
Science	100% (1/1)	+47%	1

Other154 bets
Hit rate
65% (100/154)
ROI
+9%
Politics72 bets
Hit rate
67% (48/72)
ROI
+9%
Sports13 bets
Hit rate
85% (11/13)
ROI
+31%
Geopolitics7 bets
Hit rate
57% (4/7)
ROI
-17%
Economy7 bets
Hit rate
57% (4/7)
ROI
+10%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
100% (4/4)
ROI
+26%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+27%
Business2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+26%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+47%

Track record

67% hit · 176/264

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?	Yes	$15	85.3¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk go on Joe Rogan before June 30?	No	$6	85.0¢	Won
Valorant: NRG vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega	NRG	$50	67.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$5	56.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs	Vitality	$16	73.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$45	67.8¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	$14	81.7¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$1	80.0¢	Won
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	$1	68.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	No	$5	68.9¢	Lost
Will Vitality win BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026?	Yes	$1	68.0¢	Won
Valorant: Division One vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner	FlyQuest	$9	60.3¢	Lost
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	16.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$182	85.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	20.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	No	$1	38.0¢	Won
Will "USA" be said during the CS IEM Rio 2026 Grand Final?	No	$1	28.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 1 Winner	B8	$5	74.0¢	Won
76ers vs. Knicks	76ers	$1	26.0¢	Lost
Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5)	Vitality	$1	33.0¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	No	$15	77.0¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	Yes	$3	90.0¢	Won
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in May?	No	$1	74.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$68	80.5¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	$28	86.7¢	Won
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs	9z	$10	66.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs	magic	$4	53.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$5	86.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$66	75.0¢	Won
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	No	$11	80.3¢	Won
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs VARREL (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega	FULL SENSE	$10	68.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic - Map 1 Winner	9z	$1	67.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic - Map 1 Winner	magic	$5	67.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?	No	$90	59.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$1	78.0¢	Won
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 13?	Yes	$10	83.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$10	83.9¢	Won
Nothing Ever Happens: April	Nothing	$1	72.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$35	54.3¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$1	8.7¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic - Map 1 Winner	magic	$15	89.0¢	Won
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega	KRÜ Esports	$11	85.5¢	Won
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs	Team Falcons	$1	52.0¢	Won
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%?	Yes	$2	2.9¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	$8	72.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	$5	80.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$173	78.5¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May?	Yes	$5	77.0¢	Lost
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs G2 Esports (BO3) - BLAST R6 Major Salt Lake City Group Stage	G2 Esports	$2	79.0¢	Won
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$7	83.0¢	Won

Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?Lost
Yes$15 @ 85.3¢
Will Elon Musk go on Joe Rogan before June 30?Won
No$6 @ 85.0¢
Valorant: NRG vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group OmegaLost
NRG$50 @ 67.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 56.0¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio PlayoffsWon
Vitality$16 @ 73.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$45 @ 67.8¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Won
No$14 @ 81.7¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$1 @ 80.0¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Won
No$1 @ 68.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 68.9¢
Will Vitality win BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 68.0¢
Valorant: Division One vs FlyQuest - Map 1 WinnerLost
FlyQuest$9 @ 60.3¢
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 16.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$182 @ 85.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 20.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Won
No$1 @ 38.0¢
Will "USA" be said during the CS IEM Rio 2026 Grand Final?Lost
No$1 @ 28.0¢
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 1 WinnerWon
B8$5 @ 74.0¢
76ers vs. KnicksLost
76ers$1 @ 26.0¢
Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5)Won
Vitality$1 @ 33.0¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?Lost
No$15 @ 77.0¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?Won
Yes$3 @ 90.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in May?Won
No$1 @ 74.0¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$68 @ 80.5¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
No$28 @ 86.7¢
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana PlayoffsLost
9z$10 @ 66.0¢
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana PlayoffsWon
magic$4 @ 53.0¢
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$5 @ 86.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$66 @ 75.0¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Won
No$11 @ 80.3¢
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs VARREL (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group OmegaWon
FULL SENSE$10 @ 68.0¢
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic - Map 1 WinnerLost
9z$1 @ 67.0¢
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic - Map 1 WinnerWon
magic$5 @ 67.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?Won
No$90 @ 59.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 78.0¢
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 13?Won
Yes$10 @ 83.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 83.9¢
Nothing Ever Happens: AprilWon
Nothing$1 @ 72.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$35 @ 54.3¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.7¢
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic - Map 1 WinnerWon
magic$15 @ 89.0¢
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group OmegaWon
KRÜ Esports$11 @ 85.5¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana PlayoffsWon
Team Falcons$1 @ 52.0¢
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.9¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Lost
Yes$8 @ 72.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?Won
No$5 @ 80.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$173 @ 78.5¢
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May?Lost
Yes$5 @ 77.0¢
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs G2 Esports (BO3) - BLAST R6 Major Salt Lake City Group StageWon
G2 Esports$2 @ 79.0¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$7 @ 83.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Tech	No	$1.0k	79.3¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?	Politics	Yes	$245	85.1¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$141	15.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$91	86.1¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	Tech	Yes	$68	80.3¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$60	22.6¢
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	No	$30	48.9¢
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	No	$25	60.0¢
Will Lana Del Rey release an album in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$18	75.7¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$16	87.9¢
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	No	$13	72.4¢
Weed rescheduled by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$10	63.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	63.0¢
California voter ID referendum passes?	Politics	No	$5	65.0¢
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$5	61.0¢
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	No	$4	90.0¢
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	No	$3	89.3¢
Will USD/JPY hit 140 (Low) in 2026?	Other	No	$3	79.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Politics	Yes	$2	68.5¢
GTA VI released by October 31?	Culture	No	$2	96.5¢
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?	Politics	No	$1	84.2¢
Will the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein not be revealed in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	89.0¢
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	83.9¢

GTA 6 launch postponed again?Tech
No$1.0k @ 79.3¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?Politics
Yes$245 @ 85.1¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$141 @ 15.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$91 @ 86.1¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?Tech
Yes$68 @ 80.3¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$60 @ 22.6¢
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
No$30 @ 48.9¢
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
No$25 @ 60.0¢
Will Lana Del Rey release an album in 2026?Culture
Yes$18 @ 75.7¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$16 @ 87.9¢
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
No$13 @ 72.4¢
Weed rescheduled by December 31?Politics
Yes$10 @ 63.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 63.0¢
California voter ID referendum passes?Politics
No$5 @ 65.0¢
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
Yes$5 @ 61.0¢
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
No$4 @ 90.0¢
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
No$3 @ 89.3¢
Will USD/JPY hit 140 (Low) in 2026?Other
No$3 @ 79.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Politics
Yes$2 @ 68.5¢
GTA VI released by October 31?Culture
No$2 @ 96.5¢
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?Politics
No$1 @ 84.2¢
Will the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein not be revealed in 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 89.0¢
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 83.9¢