0xaf8f…1de7

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xaf8ffe9b66291536d0feaf203267508bda491de7
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.0pp

ROI

+21%

Win rate

61% @ 52.8¢

Brier

0.219

Resolved

337

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	56% (28/50)	+27%	50
Other	38% (14/37)	-25%	37
Tech	75% (3/4)	+2%	4
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics50 bets
Hit rate
56% (28/50)
ROI
+27%
Other37 bets
Hit rate
38% (14/37)
ROI
-25%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+2%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

48% hit · 45/94

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs M80 - Map 2 Winner	Natus Vincere	$3	54.5¢	Lost
Will the Green Party (MP) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	$3	85.0¢	Won
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 72m?	No	$1	28.9¢	Lost
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be at least 72m?	Yes	$1	20.5¢	Lost
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner	Xtreme Gaming	$4	45.7¢	Lost
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs G2 Esports - Map 2 Winner	G2 Esports	$4	15.7¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: magic vs 3DMAX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D	3DMAX	$10	21.0¢	Lost
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 72m and 79m?	Yes	$1	26.9¢	Lost
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 72m?	No	$10	22.3¢	Lost
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 Week of August 10 2026?	Yes	$1	17.0¢	Lost
Will Daniel Gobeil win the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election?	No	$3	23.9¢	Lost
Will Belinda Keiser be the FL-22 Republican nominee?	Yes	$3	39.0¢	Lost
Will Yen Bailey be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?	Yes	$1	64.0¢	Lost
Will Amanda Bell be the WI-06 Democratic nominee?	Yes	$3	40.4¢	Lost
Will Ginger Murray be the WI-07 Democratic nominee?	Yes	$1	42.1¢	Lost
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in July?	Yes	$1	13.5¢	Lost
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 15–20%?	No	$1	97.0¢	Won
Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida?	Yes	$1	93.0¢	Lost
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$1	92.0¢	Won
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	No	$4	70.0¢	Won
Will the Republican Party win the MO-05 House seat?	No	$1	90.2¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-05 House seat?	Yes	$1	90.6¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$3	43.8¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$17	49.6¢	Lost
Patriots vs. Seahawks	Patriots	$9	31.6¢	Lost
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?	No	$3	28.0¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$6	12.0¢	Won
Stars vs. Avalanche	Avalanche	$2	59.0¢	Lost
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$6	35.3¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	Yes	$11	60.1¢	Won
Will the PLQ win 36-39 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?	Yes	$3	40.2¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 20, 2026?	No	$2	78.0¢	Won
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July?	Yes	$2	33.5¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$17	27.2¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$6	74.1¢	Won
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	No	$3	31.0¢	Lost
Will Click Bishop advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	Yes	$5	45.1¢	Lost
Will the PQ win 60-64 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?	Yes	$2	32.5¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$3	26.9¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$1	18.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$9	87.0¢	Won
Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election?	No	$2	15.0¢	Lost
Will John Larson be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?	No	$2	81.0¢	Won
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	$3	28.1¢	Lost
Will Hollie Noveletsky be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?	No	$8	76.0¢	Won
Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$3	29.0¢	Lost
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$26	23.1¢	Lost
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	$3	72.4¢	Lost
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in August?	No	$2	25.0¢	Lost
Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	Yes	$2	57.0¢	Lost

Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs M80 - Map 2 WinnerLost
Natus Vincere$3 @ 54.5¢
Will the Green Party (MP) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Won
No$3 @ 85.0¢
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 72m?Lost
No$1 @ 28.9¢
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be at least 72m?Lost
Yes$1 @ 20.5¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 WinnerLost
Xtreme Gaming$4 @ 45.7¢
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs G2 Esports - Map 2 WinnerLost
G2 Esports$4 @ 15.7¢
Counter-Strike: magic vs 3DMAX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group DLost
3DMAX$10 @ 21.0¢
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 72m and 79m?Lost
Yes$1 @ 26.9¢
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 72m?Lost
No$10 @ 22.3¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 Week of August 10 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 17.0¢
Will Daniel Gobeil win the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election?Lost
No$3 @ 23.9¢
Will Belinda Keiser be the FL-22 Republican nominee?Lost
Yes$3 @ 39.0¢
Will Yen Bailey be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?Lost
Yes$1 @ 64.0¢
Will Amanda Bell be the WI-06 Democratic nominee?Lost
Yes$3 @ 40.4¢
Will Ginger Murray be the WI-07 Democratic nominee?Lost
Yes$1 @ 42.1¢
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in July?Lost
Yes$1 @ 13.5¢
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 15–20%?Won
No$1 @ 97.0¢
Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida?Lost
Yes$1 @ 93.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 92.0¢
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Won
No$4 @ 70.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the MO-05 House seat?Won
No$1 @ 90.2¢
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-05 House seat?Won
Yes$1 @ 90.6¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
No$3 @ 43.8¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$17 @ 49.6¢
Patriots vs. SeahawksLost
Patriots$9 @ 31.6¢
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Lost
No$3 @ 28.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$6 @ 12.0¢
Stars vs. AvalancheLost
Avalanche$2 @ 59.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$6 @ 35.3¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Won
Yes$11 @ 60.1¢
Will the PLQ win 36-39 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?Won
Yes$3 @ 40.2¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 20, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 78.0¢
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July?Lost
Yes$2 @ 33.5¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
No$17 @ 27.2¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$6 @ 74.1¢
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?Lost
No$3 @ 31.0¢
Will Click Bishop advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?Lost
Yes$5 @ 45.1¢
Will the PQ win 60-64 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?Won
Yes$2 @ 32.5¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$3 @ 26.9¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$1 @ 18.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Won
Yes$9 @ 87.0¢
Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election?Lost
No$2 @ 15.0¢
Will John Larson be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?Won
No$2 @ 81.0¢
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 28.1¢
Will Hollie Noveletsky be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?Won
No$8 @ 76.0¢
Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?Lost
Yes$3 @ 29.0¢
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
Yes$26 @ 23.1¢
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Lost
No$3 @ 72.4¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in August?Lost
No$2 @ 25.0¢
Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?Lost
Yes$2 @ 57.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 72m?	—	No	$10	22.3¢
Counter-Strike: magic vs 3DMAX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D	—	3DMAX	$10	21.0¢
Patriots vs. Seahawks	—	Patriots	$9	31.6¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Politics	Yes	$5	72.0¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner	—	Xtreme Gaming	$4	45.7¢
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$4	70.0¢
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs G2 Esports - Map 2 Winner	—	G2 Esports	$4	15.7¢
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$4	26.0¢
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs M80 - Map 2 Winner	—	Natus Vincere	$3	54.5¢
Will the Green Party (MP) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	—	No	$3	85.0¢
Will the PLQ win 36-39 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?	Politics	Yes	$3	40.2¢
Will Amanda Bell be the WI-06 Democratic nominee?	—	Yes	$3	40.4¢
Will Daniel Gobeil win the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election?	—	No	$3	23.9¢
Will Belinda Keiser be the FL-22 Republican nominee?	—	Yes	$3	39.0¢
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July?	—	Yes	$2	33.5¢
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$2	62.9¢
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$2	50.0¢
Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election?	Politics	No	$2	15.0¢
Will Yen Bailey be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?	—	Yes	$1	64.0¢
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 72m and 79m?	—	Yes	$1	26.9¢
Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida?	Politics	Yes	$1	93.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-05 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$1	90.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	92.0¢
US recession by end of 2026?	Economy	No	$1	83.0¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	83.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$1	74.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the MO-05 House seat?	Politics	No	$1	90.2¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$1	72.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$1	72.0¢
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 15–20%?	—	No	$1	97.0¢

Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 72m?—
No$10 @ 22.3¢
Counter-Strike: magic vs 3DMAX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D—
3DMAX$10 @ 21.0¢
Patriots vs. Seahawks—
Patriots$9 @ 31.6¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Politics
Yes$5 @ 72.0¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner—
Xtreme Gaming$4 @ 45.7¢
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$4 @ 70.0¢
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs G2 Esports - Map 2 Winner—
G2 Esports$4 @ 15.7¢
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$4 @ 26.0¢
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs M80 - Map 2 Winner—
Natus Vincere$3 @ 54.5¢
Will the Green Party (MP) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?—
No$3 @ 85.0¢
Will the PLQ win 36-39 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?Politics
Yes$3 @ 40.2¢
Will Amanda Bell be the WI-06 Democratic nominee?—
Yes$3 @ 40.4¢
Will Daniel Gobeil win the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election?—
No$3 @ 23.9¢
Will Belinda Keiser be the FL-22 Republican nominee?—
Yes$3 @ 39.0¢
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July?—
Yes$2 @ 33.5¢
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Tech
No$2 @ 62.9¢
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$2 @ 50.0¢
Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election?Politics
No$2 @ 15.0¢
Will Yen Bailey be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?—
Yes$1 @ 64.0¢
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 72m and 79m?—
Yes$1 @ 26.9¢
Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida?Politics
Yes$1 @ 93.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-05 House seat?Politics
Yes$1 @ 90.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 92.0¢
US recession by end of 2026?Economy
No$1 @ 83.0¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 83.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Tech
No$1 @ 74.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the MO-05 House seat?Politics
No$1 @ 90.2¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$1 @ 72.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?Politics
No$1 @ 72.0¢
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 15–20%?—
No$1 @ 97.0¢