0xac6a…2ed3

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xac6a1ca423ef87d52b6baa7afb70c90229d22ed3
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-4.7pp

ROI

+16%

Win rate

22% @ 26.6¢

Brier

0.114

Resolved

406

Avg size

$15

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	35% (11/31)	-26%	31
Tech	50% (2/4)	+60%	4
Other	50% (2/4)	-77%	4
Sports	100% (3/3)	+63%	3
Crypto	50% (1/2)	+217%	2
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+14%	1

Politics31 bets
Hit rate
35% (11/31)
ROI
-26%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+60%
Other4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
-77%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+63%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+217%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+14%

Track record

44% hit · 20/45

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.7k	84.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$94	12.5¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	No	$179	89.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$35	65.0¢	Won
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Yes	$4	73.0¢	Lost
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June?	No	$22	69.0¢	Lost
Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$2	0.4¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$227	21.3¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$110	69.9¢	Lost
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$2	0.3¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$249	40.7¢	Lost
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?	No	$220	89.0¢	Won
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$7	1.7¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	Yes	$647	46.9¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$346	66.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$55	54.5¢	Won
Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$1	0.3¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	$2	44.0¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	$110	87.7¢	Won
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$952	72.1¢	Won
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$2	0.3¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$4	81.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$446	78.3¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	$57	56.4¢	Won
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5	Over	$1	10.0¢	Won
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$2	0.9¢	Lost
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	No	$4	85.0¢	Won
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?	Yes	$62	79.6¢	Won
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	No	$9	87.5¢	Won
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	$150	56.0¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June?	No	$87	65.9¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June?	Yes	$5	50.0¢	Won
Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$2	0.4¢	Lost
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?	Yes	$118	77.8¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	$7	66.0¢	Won
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5	Over	$1	18.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	No	$4	30.0¢	Lost
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?	No	$22	24.6¢	Lost
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Yes	$4	0.8¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	$11	74.7¢	Won

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1.7k @ 84.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$94 @ 12.5¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
No$179 @ 89.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$35 @ 65.0¢
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionLost
Yes$4 @ 73.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June?Lost
No$22 @ 69.0¢
Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.4¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$227 @ 21.3¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$110 @ 69.9¢
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.3¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$249 @ 40.7¢
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?Won
No$220 @ 89.0¢
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$7 @ 1.7¢
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?Won
Yes$647 @ 46.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$346 @ 66.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$55 @ 54.5¢
Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Lost
No$2 @ 44.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Won
No$110 @ 87.7¢
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?Won
Yes$952 @ 72.1¢
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.3¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 81.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$446 @ 78.3¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Won
No$57 @ 56.4¢
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Won
Over$1 @ 10.0¢
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.9¢
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 85.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?Won
Yes$62 @ 79.6¢
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?Won
No$9 @ 87.5¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$150 @ 56.0¢
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June?Lost
No$87 @ 65.9¢
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June?Won
Yes$5 @ 50.0¢
Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.4¢
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?Won
Yes$118 @ 77.8¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?Won
No$7 @ 66.0¢
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Won
Over$1 @ 18.0¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 30.0¢
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?Lost
No$22 @ 24.6¢
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.8¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?Won
No$11 @ 74.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Politics	No	$802	72.9¢
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?	—	Yes	$651	84.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$505	83.5¢
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$483	66.8¢
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	Sports	No	$422	68.9¢
Yoon out of custody before 2027?	Politics	No	$336	83.8¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Sports	No	$271	87.0¢
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?	—	No	$262	99.0¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$260	75.8¢
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	Politics	No	$252	65.5¢
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	Politics	No	$240	84.3¢
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$202	29.9¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?	Geopolitics	No	$161	72.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	Politics	No	$150	85.7¢
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$127	83.1¢
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?	Sports	No	$114	45.0¢
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches?	Politics	No	$66	88.0¢
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31?	—	Yes	$64	78.2¢
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	Sports	Yes	$56	29.1¢
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Politics	No	$49	66.7¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$47	65.4¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$40	80.0¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Culture	Yes	$36	17.0¢
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June?	Politics	No	$28	92.7¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$26	32.3¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?	Politics	No	$26	45.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	—	Yes	$26	90.0¢
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	Politics	No	$26	86.1¢
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	No	$26	90.0¢
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$22	33.0¢

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Politics
No$802 @ 72.9¢
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?—
Yes$651 @ 84.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$505 @ 83.5¢
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?Geopolitics
Yes$483 @ 66.8¢
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?Sports
No$422 @ 68.9¢
Yoon out of custody before 2027?Politics
No$336 @ 83.8¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Sports
No$271 @ 87.0¢
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?—
No$262 @ 99.0¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Geopolitics
Yes$260 @ 75.8¢
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?Politics
No$252 @ 65.5¢
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?Politics
No$240 @ 84.3¢
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?Politics
Yes$202 @ 29.9¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?Geopolitics
No$161 @ 72.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Politics
No$150 @ 85.7¢
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?Politics
Yes$127 @ 83.1¢
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?Sports
No$114 @ 45.0¢
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches?Politics
No$66 @ 88.0¢
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31?—
Yes$64 @ 78.2¢
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?Sports
Yes$56 @ 29.1¢
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?Politics
No$49 @ 66.7¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$47 @ 65.4¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$40 @ 80.0¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?Culture
Yes$36 @ 17.0¢
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June?Politics
No$28 @ 92.7¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?Geopolitics
Yes$26 @ 32.3¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?Politics
No$26 @ 45.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?—
Yes$26 @ 90.0¢
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?Politics
No$26 @ 86.1¢
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
No$26 @ 90.0¢
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$22 @ 33.0¢