0xac6a…2ed3

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xac6a1ca423ef87d52b6baa7afb70c90229d22ed3
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+11.6pp

ROI

+14%

Win rate

78% @ 66.7¢

Brier

0.150

Resolved

506

Avg size

$24

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	70% (47/67)	+23%	67
Politics	56% (36/64)	-4%	64
Sports	71% (12/17)	+34%	17
Geopolitics	70% (7/10)	-45%	10
Tech	50% (2/4)	+60%	4
Economy	50% (2/4)	+23%	4
Crypto	50% (2/4)	+133%	4
Culture	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Other67 bets
Hit rate
70% (47/67)
ROI
+23%
Politics64 bets
Hit rate
56% (36/64)
ROI
-4%
Sports17 bets
Hit rate
71% (12/17)
ROI
+34%
Geopolitics10 bets
Hit rate
70% (7/10)
ROI
-45%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+60%
Economy4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+23%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+133%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

63% hit · 108/172

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$149	55.6¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	No	$7	66.0¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$276	75.7¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$86	86.0¢	Lost
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	$36	41.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$244	69.0¢	Won
Will Jared Kushner visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$4	80.0¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$68	85.4¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	$690	79.5¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	No	$65	75.3¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	Yes	$0	8.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	$738	87.9¢	Won
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$8	61.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$46	71.3¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$108	86.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$44	42.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$77	70.0¢	Lost
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	$12	66.7¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$230	28.1¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$13	53.5¢	Lost
Will Rodri join Barcelona?	Yes	$60	77.3¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$52	82.8¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$105	60.2¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?	No	$112	81.3¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$1.3k	78.7¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$365	85.8¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	Yes	$408	74.4¢	Won
Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$8	80.0¢	Won
Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?	No	$27	75.0¢	Won
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$604	68.9¢	Won
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?	No	$22	87.0¢	Won
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?	No	$51	34.8¢	Won
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?	Yes	$19	75.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?	No	$264	75.4¢	Won
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	$151	30.0¢	Lost
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	$564	74.6¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	No	$2	40.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	Yes	$368	58.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$111	88.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?	No	$41	88.0¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by August 31?	No	$67	89.0¢	Won
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	$44	89.0¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	No	$66	69.1¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	Yes	$16	63.0¢	Lost
Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	No	$3	60.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	No	$361	53.1¢	Won
Will Trump praise Xi Jinping in August?	Yes	$4	81.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$200	57.3¢	Won
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	$129	84.3¢	Won
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	$5	2.0¢	Lost

Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$149 @ 55.6¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
No$7 @ 66.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$276 @ 75.7¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$86 @ 86.0¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Lost
Yes$36 @ 41.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$244 @ 69.0¢
Will Jared Kushner visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$4 @ 80.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Won
No$68 @ 85.4¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Won
Yes$690 @ 79.5¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Won
No$65 @ 75.3¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Lost
Yes$0 @ 8.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Won
No$738 @ 87.9¢
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$8 @ 61.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$46 @ 71.3¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$108 @ 86.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$44 @ 42.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$77 @ 70.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
No$12 @ 66.7¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$230 @ 28.1¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$13 @ 53.5¢
Will Rodri join Barcelona?Won
Yes$60 @ 77.3¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$52 @ 82.8¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$105 @ 60.2¢
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?Lost
No$112 @ 81.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$1.3k @ 78.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$365 @ 85.8¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Won
Yes$408 @ 74.4¢
Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$8 @ 80.0¢
Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?Won
No$27 @ 75.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$604 @ 68.9¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?Won
No$22 @ 87.0¢
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?Won
No$51 @ 34.8¢
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?Lost
Yes$19 @ 75.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?Won
No$264 @ 75.4¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Lost
No$151 @ 30.0¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Won
Yes$564 @ 74.6¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Lost
No$2 @ 40.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Won
Yes$368 @ 58.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$111 @ 88.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?Won
No$41 @ 88.0¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by August 31?Won
No$67 @ 89.0¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Won
No$44 @ 89.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Won
No$66 @ 69.1¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Lost
Yes$16 @ 63.0¢
Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?Won
No$3 @ 60.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Won
No$361 @ 53.1¢
Will Trump praise Xi Jinping in August?Won
Yes$4 @ 81.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Won
No$200 @ 57.3¢
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Won
No$129 @ 84.3¢
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	73.6¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Politics	No	$845	73.0¢
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?	—	Yes	$582	85.7¢
Yoon out of custody before 2027?	Politics	No	$305	83.9¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$268	76.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	—	No	$230	55.0¢
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	Politics	No	$223	84.3¢
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	Politics	No	$219	65.5¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?	Geopolitics	No	$161	72.2¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$160	64.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$130	49.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	—	Yes	$57	34.0¢
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$43	85.5¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Politics	Yes	$36	16.0¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Culture	Yes	$36	17.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$31	59.0¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$26	32.3¢
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	Politics	No	$26	86.1¢
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?	Sports	No	$20	89.9¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Politics	No	$15	76.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$7	86.6¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5	32.0¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5	21.0¢
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026?	Politics	No	$4	85.0¢
Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026?	Politics	No	$4	82.9¢
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$4	76.0¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$4	70.0¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027?	Politics	No	$3	66.0¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$3	81.5¢
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	Politics	No	$2	65.0¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 73.6¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Politics
No$845 @ 73.0¢
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?—
Yes$582 @ 85.7¢
Yoon out of custody before 2027?Politics
No$305 @ 83.9¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Geopolitics
Yes$268 @ 76.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?—
No$230 @ 55.0¢
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?Politics
No$223 @ 84.3¢
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?Politics
No$219 @ 65.5¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?Geopolitics
No$161 @ 72.2¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$160 @ 64.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$130 @ 49.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?—
Yes$57 @ 34.0¢
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?Tech
Yes$43 @ 85.5¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Politics
Yes$36 @ 16.0¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?Culture
Yes$36 @ 17.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$31 @ 59.0¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?Geopolitics
Yes$26 @ 32.3¢
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?Politics
No$26 @ 86.1¢
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?Sports
No$20 @ 89.9¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics
No$15 @ 76.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$7 @ 86.6¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?Politics
Yes$5 @ 32.0¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics
Yes$5 @ 21.0¢
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026?Politics
No$4 @ 85.0¢
Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026?Politics
No$4 @ 82.9¢
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$4 @ 76.0¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?Culture
Yes$4 @ 70.0¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027?Politics
No$3 @ 66.0¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$3 @ 81.5¢
US strike on Colombia by December 31?Politics
No$2 @ 65.0¢