0xaab9…a08d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xaab9f5e600a5dd88fe3a6f93313b180f6220a08d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+11.8pp

ROI

+14%

Win rate

42% @ 30.3¢

Brier

0.163

Resolved

641

Avg size

$86

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	42% (13/31)	+46%	31
Politics	38% (5/13)	-10%	13
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other31 bets
Hit rate
42% (13/31)
ROI
+46%
Politics13 bets
Hit rate
38% (5/13)
ROI
-10%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

40% hit · 18/45

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	No	$279	47.7¢	Lost
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	$118	47.9¢	Lost
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30?	No	$1.0k	73.1¢	Won
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30?	Yes	$153	4.3¢	Lost
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	Yes	$42	6.8¢	Lost
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	$377	89.6¢	Won
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	No	$382	49.6¢	Lost
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	$370	52.3¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$1.2k	54.5¢	Won
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30?	No	$304	46.8¢	Lost
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30?	Yes	$888	30.6¢	Won
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	No	$2.5k	60.3¢	Won
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	$1.7k	43.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	No	$822	74.0¢	Lost
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	Yes	$48	89.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	Yes	$522	34.9¢	Lost
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	No	$178	48.0¢	Lost
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	$5.3k	52.5¢	Won
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%?	Yes	$4.3k	67.7¢	Won
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 13-16, 2026?	Yes	$543	20.3¢	Lost
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?	Yes	$7.1k	84.2¢	Won
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026?	No	$260	7.2¢	Won
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026?	Yes	$1.4k	21.3¢	Lost
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	No	$2.2k	30.6¢	Won
Will the DHS shutdown last 70 days or more?	No	$571	67.2¢	Lost
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?	Yes	$535	60.7¢	Won
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$4	30.4¢	Lost
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	$418	19.0¢	Lost
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$245	78.0¢	Won
Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	Yes	$236	49.8¢	Won
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	$548	39.1¢	Lost
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$373	24.0¢	Lost
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$320	4.9¢	Lost
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	$678	61.0¢	Won
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$243	31.0¢	Lost
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$66	14.0¢	Lost
Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$21	5.9¢	Lost
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	No	$2.7k	76.0¢	Won
Will Maria Deery win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	$17	3.0¢	Lost
Will James Thomas Bryer win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	$17	3.0¢	Lost
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	No	$1.5k	97.9¢	Won
Will Simon Finkelstein win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	$17	3.0¢	Lost
Will John Skipworth win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	$17	3.0¢	Lost
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	No	$467	42.0¢	Lost

Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Lost
No$279 @ 47.7¢
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Lost
Yes$118 @ 47.9¢
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30?Won
No$1.0k @ 73.1¢
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30?Lost
Yes$153 @ 4.3¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?Lost
Yes$42 @ 6.8¢
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?Won
Yes$377 @ 89.6¢
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Lost
No$382 @ 49.6¢
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Won
Yes$370 @ 52.3¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 54.5¢
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30?Lost
No$304 @ 46.8¢
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30?Won
Yes$888 @ 30.6¢
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Won
No$2.5k @ 60.3¢
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Lost
Yes$1.7k @ 43.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?Lost
No$822 @ 74.0¢
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Won
Yes$48 @ 89.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?Lost
Yes$522 @ 34.9¢
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Lost
No$178 @ 48.0¢
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Won
Yes$5.3k @ 52.5¢
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%?Won
Yes$4.3k @ 67.7¢
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 13-16, 2026?Lost
Yes$543 @ 20.3¢
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?Won
Yes$7.1k @ 84.2¢
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026?Won
No$260 @ 7.2¢
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 21.3¢
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Won
No$2.2k @ 30.6¢
Will the DHS shutdown last 70 days or more?Lost
No$571 @ 67.2¢
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?Won
Yes$535 @ 60.7¢
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 30.4¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$418 @ 19.0¢
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
Yes$245 @ 78.0¢
Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?Won
Yes$236 @ 49.8¢
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
No$548 @ 39.1¢
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$373 @ 24.0¢
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$320 @ 4.9¢
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
No$678 @ 61.0¢
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$243 @ 31.0¢
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$66 @ 14.0¢
Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$21 @ 5.9¢
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
No$2.7k @ 76.0¢
Will Maria Deery win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Lost
Yes$17 @ 3.0¢
Will James Thomas Bryer win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Lost
Yes$17 @ 3.0¢
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
No$1.5k @ 97.9¢
Will Simon Finkelstein win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Lost
Yes$17 @ 3.0¢
Will John Skipworth win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Lost
Yes$17 @ 3.0¢
Will England win on 2026-06-17?Lost
No$467 @ 42.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$9.7k	60.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$7.7k	35.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4.2k	40.6¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$4.0k	33.2¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	—	No	$2.9k	27.6¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?	Politics	No	$2.2k	61.9¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Politics	No	$2.1k	59.7¢
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$2.0k	1.8¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	No	$1.8k	88.0¢
Will FISA Section 702 be reauthorized by July 31?	—	No	$1.5k	98.3¢
Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	39.0¢
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$861	47.7¢
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$779	45.9¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$539	5.3¢
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$507	12.9¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?	Politics	No	$477	50.0¢
Kash Patel out by July 31?	Politics	Yes	$476	5.5¢
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?	—	No	$462	84.6¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027?	Politics	No	$417	75.1¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$378	34.0¢
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	No	$340	29.6¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Politics	No	$332	63.2¢
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Politics	No	$249	21.4¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?	Politics	Yes	$196	2.3¢
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?	—	No	$189	8.5¢
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	No	$119	55.3¢
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	No	$102	76.2¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$92	4.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	No	$90	32.0¢
Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	Politics	No	$68	66.6¢

Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
Yes$9.7k @ 60.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$7.7k @ 35.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$4.2k @ 40.6¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
Yes$4.0k @ 33.2¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?—
No$2.9k @ 27.6¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?Politics
No$2.2k @ 61.9¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
No$2.1k @ 59.7¢
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$2.0k @ 1.8¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
No$1.8k @ 88.0¢
Will FISA Section 702 be reauthorized by July 31?—
No$1.5k @ 98.3¢
Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 39.0¢
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
Yes$861 @ 47.7¢
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?Politics
Yes$779 @ 45.9¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$539 @ 5.3¢
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$507 @ 12.9¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?Politics
No$477 @ 50.0¢
Kash Patel out by July 31?Politics
Yes$476 @ 5.5¢
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?—
No$462 @ 84.6¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027?Politics
No$417 @ 75.1¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$378 @ 34.0¢
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
No$340 @ 29.6¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Politics
No$332 @ 63.2¢
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Politics
No$249 @ 21.4¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?Politics
Yes$196 @ 2.3¢
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?—
No$189 @ 8.5¢
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
No$119 @ 55.3¢
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?Politics
No$102 @ 76.2¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$92 @ 4.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
No$90 @ 32.0¢
Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?Politics
No$68 @ 66.6¢