← Smart money
0xaa02…1df8
SharpEdge
+13.1pp
ROI
+16%
Win rate
59% @ 45.9¢
Brier
0.092
Resolved
56
Avg size
$2
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 62% (8/13) | -40% | 13 |
| Other | 18% (2/11) | +13% | 11 |
| Economy | 20% (1/5) | -70% | 5 |
| Tech | 0% (0/4) | -100% | 4 |
| Geopolitics | 67% (2/3) | +23% | 3 |
- Politics13 bets
- Hit rate
- 62% (8/13)
- ROI
- -40%
- Other11 bets
- Hit rate
- 18% (2/11)
- ROI
- +13%
- Economy5 bets
- Hit rate
- 20% (1/5)
- ROI
- -70%
- Tech4 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/4)
- ROI
- -100%
- Geopolitics3 bets
- Hit rate
- 67% (2/3)
- ROI
- +23%
Track record
36% hit · 13/36- Yes$43 @ 40.4¢
- Yes$1 @ 25.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 16.0¢
- Yes$4 @ 69.6¢
- Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
- Yes$1 @ 13.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 11.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 12.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 12.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 3.3¢
- Yes$1 @ 12.0¢
- Yes$53 @ 81.6¢
- No$1 @ 88.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 7.4¢
- No$1 @ 49.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 9.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
- Yes$1 @ 14.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 0.5¢
- Yes$1 @ 65.0¢
- Yes$3 @ 79.6¢
- Yes$3 @ 79.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 13.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 2.4¢
- Yes$2 @ 17.5¢
- Yes$1 @ 26.0¢
- No$1 @ 35.0¢
- Yes$3 @ 78.3¢
- Yes$2 @ 18.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 56.5¢
- Yes$1 @ 57.0¢
- Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting?LostYes$1 @ 33.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 5.3¢
- Yes$5 @ 50.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 2.7¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Beyoncé release an album in 2026? | Culture | Yes | $11 | 94.1¢ |
| Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? | Politics | Yes | $2 | 21.0¢ |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Tech | Yes | $1 | 8.0¢ |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting? | Economy | Yes | $1 | 62.0¢ |
| Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? | Politics | Yes | $1 | 23.0¢ |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Tech | Yes | $1 | 9.7¢ |
| Will Beyoncé be the top artist for 2026? | Culture | Yes | $1 | 1.1¢ |
| Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Tech | Yes | $1 | 0.3¢ |
| Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%? | Geopolitics | Yes | $0 | 7.8¢ |
- Yes$11 @ 94.1¢
- Yes$2 @ 21.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
- Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?EconomyYes$1 @ 62.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 23.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 9.7¢
- Yes$1 @ 1.1¢
- Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
- Yes$0 @ 7.8¢