0xa9ac…c5d1

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa9aca75fb5d8f04c2ec9eeb0eb0c30d2e526c5d1
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.8pp

ROI

+22%

Win rate

37% @ 29.1¢

Brier

0.144

Resolved

382

Avg size

$167

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Sports	35% (15/43)	+13%	43
Politics	20% (4/20)	-14%	20
Geopolitics	0% (0/5)	-100%	5
Tech	33% (1/3)	-16%	3
Crypto	67% (2/3)	+161%	3
Other	100% (1/1)	+20%	1

Sports43 bets
Hit rate
35% (15/43)
ROI
+13%
Politics20 bets
Hit rate
20% (4/20)
ROI
-14%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/5)
ROI
-100%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-16%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+161%
Other1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+20%

Track record

31% hit · 23/75

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	No	$372	12.1¢	Lost
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	No	$31	8.8¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	$114	3.0¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$10.4k	64.9¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$3.5k	6.4¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$210	32.1¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19?	Yes	$50	5.0¢	Lost
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Yes	$72	1.9¢	Lost
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$202	64.0¢	Won
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	$406	46.5¢	Won
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	No	$504	73.0¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$135	9.1¢	Lost
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$14	0.8¢	Lost
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 30?	No	$5	2.5¢	Lost
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	$204	31.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$4.4k	27.9¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.4k	7.0¢	Lost
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	$101	57.0¢	Lost
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	$2.8k	36.1¢	Lost
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	Yes	$280	33.3¢	Lost
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	No	$213	59.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$705	16.8¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$150	55.0¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Yes	$2.3k	51.0¢	Won
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	No	$21	2.0¢	Lost
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	$2.0k	73.7¢	Won
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?	Yes	$126	11.2¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$100	6.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?	Yes	$235	47.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.9k	46.4¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	$416	9.3¢	Lost
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$1.0k	83.0¢	Lost
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$6.1k	57.2¢	Won
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	$204	28.3¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$300	35.0¢	Won
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	$5.7k	57.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$505	73.4¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$20	0.4¢	Lost
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$231	14.5¢	Lost
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Over	$506	57.0¢	Won
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Under	$404	62.5¢	Lost
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$410	20.6¢	Lost
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	$1.2k	45.9¢	Lost
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	No	$203	47.0¢	Won
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$407	40.0¢	Lost
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	Over	$1.2k	61.5¢	Won
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	Under	$203	48.5¢	Lost
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	No	$607	61.0¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	$103	14.0¢	Lost
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$110	11.0¢	Lost

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?Lost
No$372 @ 12.1¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?Lost
No$31 @ 8.8¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$114 @ 3.0¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$10.4k @ 64.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3.5k @ 6.4¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$210 @ 32.1¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19?Lost
Yes$50 @ 5.0¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Lost
Yes$72 @ 1.9¢
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?Won
Yes$202 @ 64.0¢
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?Won
Yes$406 @ 46.5¢
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?Won
No$504 @ 73.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$135 @ 9.1¢
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$14 @ 0.8¢
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 30?Lost
No$5 @ 2.5¢
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?Won
Yes$204 @ 31.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$4.4k @ 27.9¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 7.0¢
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?Lost
Yes$101 @ 57.0¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?Lost
Yes$2.8k @ 36.1¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?Lost
Yes$280 @ 33.3¢
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?Won
No$213 @ 59.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$705 @ 16.8¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$150 @ 55.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 51.0¢
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?Lost
No$21 @ 2.0¢
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 73.7¢
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?Lost
Yes$126 @ 11.2¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$100 @ 6.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?Lost
Yes$235 @ 47.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1.9k @ 46.4¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Lost
No$416 @ 9.3¢
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 83.0¢
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?Won
Yes$6.1k @ 57.2¢
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?Lost
Yes$204 @ 28.3¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$300 @ 35.0¢
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?Won
No$5.7k @ 57.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$505 @ 73.4¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 0.4¢
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?Lost
Yes$231 @ 14.5¢
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5Won
Over$506 @ 57.0¢
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5Lost
Under$404 @ 62.5¢
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?Lost
Yes$410 @ 20.6¢
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 45.9¢
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?Won
No$203 @ 47.0¢
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?Lost
Yes$407 @ 40.0¢
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5Won
Over$1.2k @ 61.5¢
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5Lost
Under$203 @ 48.5¢
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?Won
No$607 @ 61.0¢
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?Lost
Yes$103 @ 14.0¢
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$110 @ 11.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$1.9k	54.0¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$1.9k	18.9¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1.5k	20.1¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	No	$1.4k	77.2¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$1.2k	9.2¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$698	16.3¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$560	34.8¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$396	15.6¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$384	32.2¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Politics	Yes	$366	61.0¢
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?	Politics	No	$325	22.3¢
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$267	2.6¢
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$260	42.8¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$246	2.4¢
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	Politics	Yes	$245	59.1¢
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$190	1.9¢
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$165	30.0¢
Will Trump publicly praise Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday?	Politics	No	$159	70.4¢
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$141	47.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?	Politics	Yes	$126	12.5¢
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$108	2.1¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?	Politics	Yes	$100	11.3¢
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$100	6.9¢
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$80	11.0¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$72	1.9¢
Will Mexico be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$59	40.0¢
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$50	21.4¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Geopolitics	No	$50	29.7¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$25	7.7¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$23	23.0¢

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics
Yes$1.9k @ 54.0¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$1.9k @ 18.9¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$1.5k @ 20.1¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
No$1.4k @ 77.2¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$1.2k @ 9.2¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$698 @ 16.3¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$560 @ 34.8¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$396 @ 15.6¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$384 @ 32.2¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Politics
Yes$366 @ 61.0¢
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Politics
No$325 @ 22.3¢
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$267 @ 2.6¢
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?Politics
Yes$260 @ 42.8¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$246 @ 2.4¢
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Politics
Yes$245 @ 59.1¢
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$190 @ 1.9¢
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$165 @ 30.0¢
Will Trump publicly praise Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday?Politics
No$159 @ 70.4¢
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$141 @ 47.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?Politics
Yes$126 @ 12.5¢
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$108 @ 2.1¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?Politics
Yes$100 @ 11.3¢
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$100 @ 6.9¢
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?Politics
Yes$80 @ 11.0¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Politics
Yes$72 @ 1.9¢
Will Mexico be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$59 @ 40.0¢
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$50 @ 21.4¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Geopolitics
No$50 @ 29.7¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$25 @ 7.7¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$23 @ 23.0¢