0xa70f…9649

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa70f90bc03d8009b04d62b52b4928ecfe9969649
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

-13.9pp

ROI

+25%

Win rate

37% @ 51.2¢

Brier

0.294

Resolved

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	50% (11/22)	-39%	22
Other	50% (6/12)	+211%	12
Sports	60% (6/10)	-14%	10
Geopolitics	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+96%	1

Politics22 bets
Hit rate
50% (11/22)
ROI
-39%
Other12 bets
Hit rate
50% (6/12)
ROI
+211%
Sports10 bets
Hit rate
60% (6/10)
ROI
-14%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+96%

Track record

51% hit · 24/47

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	$2	94.1¢	Won
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$10	28.5¢	Lost
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	$8	67.0¢	Lost
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	$2	63.9¢	Won
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$2	24.1¢	Lost
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$2	72.1¢	Won
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	$4	94.3¢	Won
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	$4	95.5¢	Won
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$2	14.5¢	Lost
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$10	42.1¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	$2	27.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	$5	89.3¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	$2	88.0¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	No	$2	42.9¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	Yes	$0	48.1¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$1	71.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$3	32.4¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$4	39.1¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$4	41.5¢	Won
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$2	81.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$1	45.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$1	54.0¢	Won
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	3.6¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	No	$4	14.6¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	Yes	$5	21.7¢	Won
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$27	74.9¢	Lost
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	No	$1	51.0¢	Won
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	58.2¢	Won
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	$1	41.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$4	87.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$2	46.3¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?	No	$3	29.5¢	Lost
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$3	63.9¢	Won
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$3	35.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	Yes	$1	58.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	$1	7.0¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$4	84.4¢	Won
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	$2	28.3¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$2	23.6¢	Lost
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	No	$1	80.0¢	Won
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	44.0¢	Lost
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$2	43.0¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?	Yes	$1	1.9¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$2	86.0¢	Won
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?	No	$3	46.6¢	Won
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?	Yes	$5	73.7¢	Lost
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?	No	$1	14.9¢	Lost

Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Won
No$2 @ 94.1¢
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
Yes$10 @ 28.5¢
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
No$8 @ 67.0¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
No$2 @ 63.9¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
Yes$2 @ 24.1¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
Yes$2 @ 72.1¢
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
No$4 @ 94.3¢
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
No$4 @ 95.5¢
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
Yes$2 @ 14.5¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
Yes$10 @ 42.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Lost
No$2 @ 27.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Won
Yes$5 @ 89.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 88.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Lost
No$2 @ 42.9¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Won
Yes$0 @ 48.1¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 71.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 32.4¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$4 @ 39.1¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$4 @ 41.5¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$2 @ 81.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$1 @ 45.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$1 @ 54.0¢
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.6¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Lost
No$4 @ 14.6¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Won
Yes$5 @ 21.7¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$27 @ 74.9¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?Won
No$1 @ 51.0¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$1 @ 58.2¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Lost
No$1 @ 41.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$4 @ 87.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 46.3¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 29.5¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$3 @ 63.9¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$3 @ 35.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 58.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Won
No$4 @ 84.4¢
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 28.3¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$2 @ 23.6¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 80.0¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 44.0¢
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$2 @ 43.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?Won
Yes$1 @ 1.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 86.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?Won
No$3 @ 46.6¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 73.7¢
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?Lost
No$1 @ 14.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$44	69.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$9	81.6¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	No	$4	84.0¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?	Culture	No	$4	89.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	5.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$2	71.0¢
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$2	93.8¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	65.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$1	25.0¢

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$44 @ 69.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$9 @ 81.6¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
No$4 @ 84.0¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?Culture
No$4 @ 89.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 5.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$2 @ 71.0¢
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$2 @ 93.8¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 65.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$1 @ 25.0¢