0xa62a…a8ff

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa62abc8cb1fb4dc98ff0bd11b1cd89854e3aa8ff
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.2pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

65% @ 59.5¢

Brier

0.166

Resolved

926

Avg size

$45

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	67% (59/88)	+15%	88
Other	47% (37/78)	+5%	78
Geopolitics	67% (14/21)	+7%	21
Tech	63% (5/8)	+26%	8
Sports	43% (3/7)	-63%	7
Culture	43% (3/7)	-74%	7
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+122%	1

Politics88 bets
Hit rate
67% (59/88)
ROI
+15%
Other78 bets
Hit rate
47% (37/78)
ROI
+5%
Geopolitics21 bets
Hit rate
67% (14/21)
ROI
+7%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
63% (5/8)
ROI
+26%
Sports7 bets
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
ROI
-63%
Culture7 bets
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
ROI
-74%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+122%

Track record

58% hit · 122/211

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$100	87.0¢	Won
Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026?	No	$90	90.4¢	Won
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?	Yes	$10	34.0¢	Lost
Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?	No	$50	90.0¢	Won
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	No	$60	71.8¢	Won
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	$10.0k	92.0¢	Won
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$47	77.8¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$14	29.8¢	Won
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?	No	$100	87.0¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$17	19.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$187	87.0¢	Won
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	Yes	$23	11.0¢	Lost
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	$51	63.3¢	Won
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	$51	70.0¢	Won
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	Yes	$104	51.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$127	74.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$74	30.7¢	Lost
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?	Yes	$8	75.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$25	88.0¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$203	84.5¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	No	$178	55.7¢	Lost
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	$221	82.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 3?	No	$4	88.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 3?	Yes	$3	67.0¢	Lost
Swedish Open: Stefano Travaglia vs Martin Krumich	Stefano Travaglia	$7	67.6¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$101	72.3¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$88	88.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Yes	$288	13.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or below on July 6?	Yes	$1	10.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$295	68.3¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$1	5.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$1.0k	69.8¢	Won
Will Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3?	Yes	$1	12.0¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$54	54.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	$98	89.0¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$86	63.9¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$10	48.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 6?	Yes	$5	44.0¢	Won
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$141	70.6¢	Won
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?	No	$48	88.0¢	Won
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?	Yes	$200	17.3¢	Lost
Will there be exactly 2 major space weather events this week?	No	$24	60.4¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	$185	86.3¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	$46	83.0¢	Won
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?	No	$31	32.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 5?	No	$85	85.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	No	$23	23.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$200	80.2¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 3?	Yes	$4	0.7¢	Lost
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?	Yes	$11	38.0¢	Lost

Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$100 @ 87.0¢
Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026?Won
No$90 @ 90.4¢
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?Lost
Yes$10 @ 34.0¢
Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?Won
No$50 @ 90.0¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?Won
No$60 @ 71.8¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Won
No$10.0k @ 92.0¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$47 @ 77.8¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$14 @ 29.8¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 87.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$17 @ 19.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$187 @ 87.0¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Lost
Yes$23 @ 11.0¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Won
No$51 @ 63.3¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Won
No$51 @ 70.0¢
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Won
Yes$104 @ 51.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$127 @ 74.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$74 @ 30.7¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?Won
Yes$8 @ 75.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$25 @ 88.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$203 @ 84.5¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Lost
No$178 @ 55.7¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
No$221 @ 82.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 3?Won
No$4 @ 88.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 3?Lost
Yes$3 @ 67.0¢
Swedish Open: Stefano Travaglia vs Martin KrumichWon
Stefano Travaglia$7 @ 67.6¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$101 @ 72.3¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$88 @ 88.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Lost
Yes$288 @ 13.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or below on July 6?Lost
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$295 @ 68.3¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.9¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$1.0k @ 69.8¢
Will Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3?Lost
Yes$1 @ 12.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
No$54 @ 54.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Won
Yes$98 @ 89.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$86 @ 63.9¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$10 @ 48.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 6?Won
Yes$5 @ 44.0¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$141 @ 70.6¢
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?Won
No$48 @ 88.0¢
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?Lost
Yes$200 @ 17.3¢
Will there be exactly 2 major space weather events this week?Lost
No$24 @ 60.4¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
No$185 @ 86.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Won
No$46 @ 83.0¢
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?Lost
No$31 @ 32.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 5?Won
No$85 @ 85.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Won
No$23 @ 23.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$200 @ 80.2¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 3?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.7¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?Lost
Yes$11 @ 38.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$901	91.0¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$550	79.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$274	77.3¢
Will Lionel Messi rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026?	Tech	No	$199	71.0¢
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?	Politics	No	$181	84.0¢
Trump goes to space in 2026?	Politics	No	$173	96.3¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$147	74.2¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$105	77.4¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$100	87.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$93	78.6¢
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?	Politics	No	$90	80.0¢
Will Daryl Parks win the Tallahassee mayoral election?	Politics	No	$89	88.8¢
Will Spain participate in Eurovision 2027?	Culture	No	$44	80.0¢
Will the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster explode?	Tech	Yes	$10	49.4¢
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 achieve a successful splashdown?	Tech	Yes	$6	29.0¢
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$6	29.0¢
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Politics	Yes	$5	41.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5	65.0¢
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Politics	No	$5	12.6¢
Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Tech	No	$5	26.5¢
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	Yes	$5	4.0¢
Will Jeremy Matlow win the Tallahassee mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$5	43.9¢
Will David Makhura be the next mayor of Johannesburg?	Politics	Yes	$5	32.5¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4	26.9¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	Tech	No	$3	59.0¢

Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$901 @ 91.0¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$550 @ 79.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$274 @ 77.3¢
Will Lionel Messi rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026?Tech
No$199 @ 71.0¢
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?Politics
No$181 @ 84.0¢
Trump goes to space in 2026?Politics
No$173 @ 96.3¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
No$147 @ 74.2¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$105 @ 77.4¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$100 @ 87.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$93 @ 78.6¢
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?Politics
No$90 @ 80.0¢
Will Daryl Parks win the Tallahassee mayoral election?Politics
No$89 @ 88.8¢
Will Spain participate in Eurovision 2027?Culture
No$44 @ 80.0¢
Will the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster explode?Tech
Yes$10 @ 49.4¢
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 achieve a successful splashdown?Tech
Yes$6 @ 29.0¢
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$6 @ 29.0¢
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?Politics
Yes$5 @ 41.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$5 @ 65.0¢
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?Politics
No$5 @ 12.6¢
Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?Tech
No$5 @ 26.5¢
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
Yes$5 @ 4.0¢
Will Jeremy Matlow win the Tallahassee mayoral election?Politics
Yes$5 @ 43.9¢
Will David Makhura be the next mayor of Johannesburg?Politics
Yes$5 @ 32.5¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$4 @ 26.9¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Tech
No$3 @ 59.0¢