0xa5d8…ff3a

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa5d833a23bc19b7d38adcbee7c117a8f421eff3a
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.1pp

ROI

+19%

Win rate

89% @ 76.7¢

Brier

0.089

Resolved

Avg size

$942

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	63% (5/8)	+14%	8
Geopolitics	100% (4/4)	+35%	4
Other	67% (2/3)	-21%	3
Tech	100% (1/1)	+21%	1

Politics8 bets
Hit rate
63% (5/8)
ROI
+14%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
100% (4/4)
ROI
+35%
Other3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-21%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+21%

Track record

75% hit · 12/16

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	$32	19.6¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$402	82.6¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$3.0k	87.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$15.0k	68.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	$5.1k	89.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	No	$810	81.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$1.8k	51.9¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$15.6k	76.8¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$8.7k	87.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$2.8k	73.5¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	No	$4.4k	86.6¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$8.7k	87.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$2.3k	75.0¢	Lost
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$4.6k	80.8¢	Won
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Yes	$495	65.9¢	Lost
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	$1.6k	79.6¢	Won

Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?Lost
Yes$32 @ 19.6¢
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Won
Yes$402 @ 82.6¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$3.0k @ 87.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$15.0k @ 68.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?Won
No$5.1k @ 89.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Won
No$810 @ 81.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$1.8k @ 51.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$15.6k @ 76.8¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$8.7k @ 87.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$2.8k @ 73.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Won
No$4.4k @ 86.6¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Won
No$8.7k @ 87.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$2.3k @ 75.0¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Won
Yes$4.6k @ 80.8¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Lost
Yes$495 @ 65.9¢
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Won
No$1.6k @ 79.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$5.4k	89.9¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Tech	Yes	$4.8k	66.5¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Business	Yes	$3.0k	85.3¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$2.6k	53.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$2.0k	49.5¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Tech	No	$1.6k	88.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1.0k	76.8¢
Will Miley Cyrus perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	Sports	Yes	$294	52.9¢

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$5.4k @ 89.9¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Tech
Yes$4.8k @ 66.5¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Business
Yes$3.0k @ 85.3¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$2.6k @ 53.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$2.0k @ 49.5¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Tech
No$1.6k @ 88.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$1.0k @ 76.8¢
Will Miley Cyrus perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?Sports
Yes$294 @ 52.9¢