0xa4aa…51df

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa4aaf62d8ce8b34e03b5df07b8a2f92070b351df
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.1pp

ROI

+40%

Win rate

51% @ 38.3¢

Brier

0.200

Resolved

113

Avg size

$51

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	59% (19/32)	+98%	32
Politics	38% (5/13)	-30%	13
Crypto	50% (3/6)	+5%	6
Tech	75% (3/4)	+62%	4
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other32 bets
Hit rate
59% (19/32)
ROI
+98%
Politics13 bets
Hit rate
38% (5/13)
ROI
-30%
Crypto6 bets
Hit rate
50% (3/6)
ROI
+5%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+62%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

54% hit · 30/56

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$37	34.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?	No	$35	44.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October?	No	$108	32.7¢	Won
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$73	47.6¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	No	$55	52.7¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	No	$115	56.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	No	$337	60.9¢	Won
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	$11	20.8¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$108	46.8¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	$20	50.0¢	Won
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	$35	88.3¢	Won
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance	Argentina	$48	68.9¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	No	$17	33.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	$447	37.3¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	No	$85	32.5¢	Lost
James Comey arrested by April 29?	No	$10	20.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?	No	$109	54.3¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	$530	49.8¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	No	$14	46.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April 13?	No	$15	74.6¢	Won
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$16	39.0¢	Won
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?	No	$498	75.6¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	$26	38.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$325	75.5¢	Won
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance	Argentina	$85	64.0¢	Won
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance	Belgium	$138	47.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	No	$38	4.9¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?	No	$125	41.9¢	Won
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advance	Portugal	$31	43.2¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	$14	61.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?	No	$5	54.5¢	Lost
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance	England	$152	52.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	No	$349	37.5¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$76	51.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 9?	Yes	$4	18.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	$259	37.0¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-07-04?	Yes	$128	69.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	$7	10.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in September?	No	$151	33.6¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?	No	$97	24.5¢	Lost
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$51	60.0¢	Lost
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?	No	$36	23.0¢	Lost
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	No	$6	57.9¢	Won
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?	No	$6	52.0¢	Won
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	No	$12	37.0¢	Won
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	$55	54.5¢	Won
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$51	39.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	$168	55.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?	No	$54	11.3¢	Won
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance	France	$51	42.8¢	Lost

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Lost
Yes$37 @ 34.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?Won
No$35 @ 44.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October?Won
No$108 @ 32.7¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$73 @ 47.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?Won
No$55 @ 52.7¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?Won
No$115 @ 56.0¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?Won
No$337 @ 60.9¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$11 @ 20.8¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$108 @ 46.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?Won
No$20 @ 50.0¢
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?Won
Yes$35 @ 88.3¢
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to AdvanceWon
Argentina$48 @ 68.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?Lost
No$17 @ 33.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?Won
No$447 @ 37.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Lost
No$85 @ 32.5¢
James Comey arrested by April 29?Lost
No$10 @ 20.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?Lost
No$109 @ 54.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?Won
No$530 @ 49.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?Lost
No$14 @ 46.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April 13?Won
No$15 @ 74.6¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
No$16 @ 39.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?Won
No$498 @ 75.6¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Lost
No$26 @ 38.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$325 @ 75.5¢
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to AdvanceWon
Argentina$85 @ 64.0¢
United States vs. Belgium: Team to AdvanceWon
Belgium$138 @ 47.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?Lost
No$38 @ 4.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?Won
No$125 @ 41.9¢
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to AdvanceWon
Portugal$31 @ 43.2¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Won
No$14 @ 61.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 54.5¢
Mexico vs. England: Team to AdvanceWon
England$152 @ 52.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?Won
No$349 @ 37.5¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$76 @ 51.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 9?Lost
Yes$4 @ 18.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Lost
No$259 @ 37.0¢
Will France win on 2026-07-04?Won
Yes$128 @ 69.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?Lost
No$7 @ 10.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in September?Lost
No$151 @ 33.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?Lost
No$97 @ 24.5¢
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?Lost
Yes$51 @ 60.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?Lost
No$36 @ 23.0¢
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?Won
No$6 @ 57.9¢
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?Won
No$6 @ 52.0¢
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?Won
No$12 @ 37.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Won
No$55 @ 54.5¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
No$51 @ 39.0¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Won
Yes$168 @ 55.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?Won
No$54 @ 11.3¢
France vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceLost
France$51 @ 42.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?	Other	No	$161	19.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?	—	No	$116	21.8¢
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?	Crypto	No	$92	24.5¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$73	47.6¢
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance	—	France	$51	42.8¢

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?Other
No$161 @ 19.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?—
No$116 @ 21.8¢
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?Crypto
No$92 @ 24.5¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$73 @ 47.6¢
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance—
France$51 @ 42.8¢