0xa3ad…6866

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa3ad70cf48a2f2b44163e798223c01a2c2536866
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.0pp

ROI

+25%

Win rate

47% @ 42.0¢

Brier

0.085

Resolved

483

Avg size

$17

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	45% (9/20)	-8%	20
Politics	40% (2/5)	-8%	5
Sports	100% (4/4)	+35%	4
Economy	50% (1/2)	-2%	2
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+38%	1

Other20 bets
Hit rate
45% (9/20)
ROI
-8%
Politics5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
-8%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
100% (4/4)
ROI
+35%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-2%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+38%

Track record

53% hit · 17/32

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	$854	86.9¢	Won
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	$3	6.0¢	Lost
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	$231	47.8¢	Won
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	No	$14	6.7¢	Lost
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	No	$171	83.7¢	Won
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in April 2026?	No	$116	66.4¢	Won
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 90m?	No	$65	64.9¢	Won
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in April 2026?	No	$97	48.1¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	$4	0.2¢	Lost
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?	No	$27	1.6¢	Lost
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	$3	1.0¢	Lost
Will Seoul have less than 40mm of precipitation in April?	No	$2	11.0¢	Lost
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?	No	$63	82.7¢	Won
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 100m?	No	$66	66.0¢	Won
Will Seoul have between 60-65mm of precipitation in April?	No	$15	82.0¢	Won
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	No	$235	76.2¢	Lost
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m?	No	$64	85.3¢	Lost
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April 2026?	No	$19	79.7¢	Won
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	$23	88.4¢	Won
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	No	$6	5.8¢	Lost
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?	No	$68	34.6¢	Lost
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 27?	No	$161	67.8¢	Won
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting?	No	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?	No	$131	66.9¢	Won
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 26?	No	$335	80.4¢	Won
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	$207	73.2¢	Won
Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$19	2.0¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$597	65.8¢	Won
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	$134	89.0¢	Won
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$335	36.9¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$2.2k	72.4¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026?	No	$70	7.0¢	Lost

Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?Won
No$854 @ 86.9¢
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Lost
No$3 @ 6.0¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Won
No$231 @ 47.8¢
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
No$14 @ 6.7¢
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?Won
No$171 @ 83.7¢
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in April 2026?Won
No$116 @ 66.4¢
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 90m?Won
No$65 @ 64.9¢
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in April 2026?Lost
No$97 @ 48.1¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?Lost
No$4 @ 0.2¢
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?Lost
No$27 @ 1.6¢
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
No$3 @ 1.0¢
Will Seoul have less than 40mm of precipitation in April?Lost
No$2 @ 11.0¢
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?Won
No$63 @ 82.7¢
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 100m?Won
No$66 @ 66.0¢
Will Seoul have between 60-65mm of precipitation in April?Won
No$15 @ 82.0¢
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?Lost
No$235 @ 76.2¢
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m?Lost
No$64 @ 85.3¢
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April 2026?Won
No$19 @ 79.7¢
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?Won
No$23 @ 88.4¢
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Lost
No$6 @ 5.8¢
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?Lost
No$68 @ 34.6¢
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 27?Won
No$161 @ 67.8¢
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting?Lost
No$1 @ 2.0¢
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?Won
No$131 @ 66.9¢
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 26?Won
No$335 @ 80.4¢
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?Won
No$207 @ 73.2¢
Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$19 @ 2.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$597 @ 65.8¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Won
No$134 @ 89.0¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
No$335 @ 36.9¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$2.2k @ 72.4¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026?Lost
No$70 @ 7.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?	Culture	Yes	$96	16.7¢
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$90	2.8¢
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$90	2.8¢
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$90	2.8¢
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$71	7.7¢
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?	Culture	Yes	$71	16.7¢
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$51	2.7¢
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$51	2.7¢
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$51	2.7¢
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$51	2.7¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for Jacksonville Jaguars next?	Sports	Yes	$34	2.8¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for Minnesota Vikings next?	Sports	Yes	$34	2.8¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for Carolina Panthers next?	Sports	Yes	$34	2.8¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for Kansas City Chiefs next?	Sports	Yes	$34	2.8¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for Pittsburgh Steelers next?	Sports	Yes	$34	2.8¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for Green Bay Packers next?	Sports	Yes	$34	2.8¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for Indianapolis Colts next?	Sports	Yes	$34	2.8¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for Tennessee Titans next?	Sports	Yes	$32	2.8¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for Arizona Cardinals next?	Sports	Yes	$30	2.8¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for Tampa Bay Buccaneers next?	Sports	Yes	$30	2.8¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$29	20.0¢
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$28	1.8¢
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$28	1.8¢
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$28	1.8¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for Washington Commanders next?	Sports	Yes	$22	2.8¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for Baltimore Ravens next?	Sports	Yes	$21	3.4¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for Detroit Lions next?	Sports	Yes	$20	3.3¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for New York Giants next?	Sports	Yes	$20	3.3¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for Philadelphia Eagles next?	Sports	Yes	$20	3.3¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for Los Angeles Chargers next?	Sports	Yes	$20	3.3¢

Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?Culture
Yes$96 @ 16.7¢
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$90 @ 2.8¢
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$90 @ 2.8¢
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$90 @ 2.8¢
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$71 @ 7.7¢
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?Culture
Yes$71 @ 16.7¢
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$51 @ 2.7¢
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$51 @ 2.7¢
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$51 @ 2.7¢
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$51 @ 2.7¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for Jacksonville Jaguars next?Sports
Yes$34 @ 2.8¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for Minnesota Vikings next?Sports
Yes$34 @ 2.8¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for Carolina Panthers next?Sports
Yes$34 @ 2.8¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for Kansas City Chiefs next?Sports
Yes$34 @ 2.8¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for Pittsburgh Steelers next?Sports
Yes$34 @ 2.8¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for Green Bay Packers next?Sports
Yes$34 @ 2.8¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for Indianapolis Colts next?Sports
Yes$34 @ 2.8¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for Tennessee Titans next?Sports
Yes$32 @ 2.8¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for Arizona Cardinals next?Sports
Yes$30 @ 2.8¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for Tampa Bay Buccaneers next?Sports
Yes$30 @ 2.8¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$29 @ 20.0¢
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$28 @ 1.8¢
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$28 @ 1.8¢
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$28 @ 1.8¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for Washington Commanders next?Sports
Yes$22 @ 2.8¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for Baltimore Ravens next?Sports
Yes$21 @ 3.4¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for Detroit Lions next?Sports
Yes$20 @ 3.3¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for New York Giants next?Sports
Yes$20 @ 3.3¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for Philadelphia Eagles next?Sports
Yes$20 @ 3.3¢
Will Maxx Crosby play for Los Angeles Chargers next?Sports
Yes$20 @ 3.3¢