0xa344…8141

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa34429d549f23fe45a9ca5442b79b365cd2f8141
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.0pp

ROI

+7%

Win rate

57% @ 51.5¢

Brier

0.206

Resolved

2047

Avg size

$41

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	51% (294/575)	+6%	575
Politics	52% (43/82)	+7%	82
Geopolitics	60% (6/10)	+27%	10
Economy	25% (1/4)	+7%	4

Other575 bets
Hit rate
51% (294/575)
ROI
+6%
Politics82 bets
Hit rate
52% (43/82)
ROI
+7%
Geopolitics10 bets
Hit rate
60% (6/10)
ROI
+27%
Economy4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
+7%

Track record

51% hit · 344/671

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?	Yes	$15	30.0¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 100+ tries?	No	$8	30.0¢	Lost
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	Yes	$77	31.0¢	Lost
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$917	61.5¢	Won
Was Trump hacked?	Yes	$71	11.8¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	Yes	$37	18.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say 'Russia' 3+ times during the 2025 State of the Union?	Yes	$37	73.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$7	3.3¢	Lost
Trump x Xi talk before July?	Yes	$112	55.8¢	Won
South Korean President impeached by Friday?	Yes	$11	22.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?	Yes	$281	55.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Europe" or "European" during the State of the Union address?	Yes	$82	81.8¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?	Yes	$20	29.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?	Yes	$18	14.3¢	Lost
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on March 23?	Yes	$75	50.0¢	Won
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?	Yes	$6	11.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Israel" this week? (December 22 - 28)	Yes	$12	62.0¢	Lost
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?	Yes	$220	53.1¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?	Yes	$49	32.5¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Zohran Mamdani in November?	Yes	$116	20.2¢	Won
Will Trump say "Thank you" 10+ times during the private dinner on November 12?	No	$19	37.0¢	Won
Will Bebe Stevens make a trade during South Park's prediction market episode?	Yes	$4	20.0¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in November?	No	$546	78.8¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in November?	Yes	$11	33.3¢	Lost
Will Stephen Hawking be named in Epstein files?	Yes	$12	60.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during executive order signing today?	Yes	$4	18.0¢	Lost
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?	Yes	$31	52.0¢	Won
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	$29	58.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech?	Yes	$17	28.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$8	17.0¢	Lost
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?	Yes	$6	13.0¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Ursula von der Leyen in January 2026?	Yes	$92	54.2¢	Lost
Will Biden issue more pardons than Trump?	Yes	$18	35.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$395	69.1¢	Lost
Will JD Vance attend Dick Cheney's funeral?	No	$66	88.1¢	Won
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?	Yes	$28	28.0¢	Won
Will one person dissent the March Fed decision?	No	$44	88.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 17, 2026?	Yes	$77	76.9¢	Won
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 28, 2026?	Yes	$16	83.0¢	Won
Nothing Ever Happens	No	$37	40.8¢	Lost
Will Bryan Johnson say "Don’t Die" while tripping balls?	Yes	$40	80.0¢	Won
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$317	56.0¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	Yes	$98	88.9¢	Won
Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech?	Yes	$8	68.0¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on April 16?	No	$122	60.3¢	Won
Israel strike on Damascus by August 31?	Yes	$7	7.0¢	Lost
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025?	Yes	$6	11.0¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	Yes	$186	53.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$99	44.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	Yes	$991	67.0¢	Won

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?Lost
Yes$15 @ 30.0¢
Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 100+ tries?Lost
No$8 @ 30.0¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Lost
Yes$77 @ 31.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$917 @ 61.5¢
Was Trump hacked?Lost
Yes$71 @ 11.8¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?Lost
Yes$37 @ 18.5¢
Will Trump say 'Russia' 3+ times during the 2025 State of the Union?Won
Yes$37 @ 73.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 3.3¢
Trump x Xi talk before July?Won
Yes$112 @ 55.8¢
South Korean President impeached by Friday?Lost
Yes$11 @ 22.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?Lost
Yes$281 @ 55.5¢
Will Trump say "Europe" or "European" during the State of the Union address?Won
Yes$82 @ 81.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?Won
Yes$20 @ 29.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?Lost
Yes$18 @ 14.3¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on March 23?Won
Yes$75 @ 50.0¢
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?Lost
Yes$6 @ 11.0¢
Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Israel" this week? (December 22 - 28)Lost
Yes$12 @ 62.0¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? Lost
Yes$220 @ 53.1¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Lost
Yes$49 @ 32.5¢
Will Trump talk to Zohran Mamdani in November?Won
Yes$116 @ 20.2¢
Will Trump say "Thank you" 10+ times during the private dinner on November 12?Won
No$19 @ 37.0¢
Will Bebe Stevens make a trade during South Park's prediction market episode?Lost
Yes$4 @ 20.0¢
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in November?Won
No$546 @ 78.8¢
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in November?Lost
Yes$11 @ 33.3¢
Will Stephen Hawking be named in Epstein files?Lost
Yes$12 @ 60.0¢
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during executive order signing today?Lost
Yes$4 @ 18.0¢
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?Won
Yes$31 @ 52.0¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Won
No$29 @ 58.0¢
Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech?Won
Yes$17 @ 28.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 17.0¢
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?Lost
Yes$6 @ 13.0¢
Will Trump meet with Ursula von der Leyen in January 2026?Lost
Yes$92 @ 54.2¢
Will Biden issue more pardons than Trump?Lost
Yes$18 @ 35.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$395 @ 69.1¢
Will JD Vance attend Dick Cheney's funeral?Won
No$66 @ 88.1¢
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?Won
Yes$28 @ 28.0¢
Will one person dissent the March Fed decision?Lost
No$44 @ 88.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$77 @ 76.9¢
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 28, 2026?Won
Yes$16 @ 83.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens Lost
No$37 @ 40.8¢
Will Bryan Johnson say "Don’t Die" while tripping balls?Won
Yes$40 @ 80.0¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$317 @ 56.0¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?Won
Yes$98 @ 88.9¢
Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech?Won
Yes$8 @ 68.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on April 16?Won
No$122 @ 60.3¢
Israel strike on Damascus by August 31?Lost
Yes$7 @ 7.0¢
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025?Lost
Yes$6 @ 11.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?Lost
Yes$186 @ 53.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$99 @ 44.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Won
Yes$991 @ 67.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$2.7k	45.0¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	42.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$115	58.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 26?	Politics	No	$95	95.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Geopolitics	No	$76	38.0¢
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$15	24.3¢
Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$11	6.6¢
US military draft authorized in 2026?	Politics	No	$3	75.0¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$2.7k @ 45.0¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 42.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$115 @ 58.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 26?Politics
No$95 @ 95.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Geopolitics
No$76 @ 38.0¢
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$15 @ 24.3¢
Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$11 @ 6.6¢
US military draft authorized in 2026?Politics
No$3 @ 75.0¢