0xa2e9…6af7

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa2e95a54c738ff9d070888584c593ee94bd46af7
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+19.4pp

ROI

+32%

Win rate

78% @ 58.9¢

Brier

0.208

Resolved

106

Avg size

$28

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	77% (36/47)	+35%	47
Politics	76% (13/17)	+27%	17
Tech	50% (2/4)	-3%	4
Sports	67% (2/3)	+31%	3
Geopolitics	100% (3/3)	+36%	3

Other47 bets
Hit rate
77% (36/47)
ROI
+35%
Politics17 bets
Hit rate
76% (13/17)
ROI
+27%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
-3%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+31%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+36%

Track record

76% hit · 56/74

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)	Ian Machado Garry	$5	26.0¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?	Yes	$5	46.0¢	Lost
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	Argentina	$20	41.0¢	Lost
Epstein client list released in 2025?	No	$320	74.1¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$60	64.7¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$100	73.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$40	73.3¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$10	33.0¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	No	$25	32.5¢	Lost
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$15	42.9¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500?	Yes	$15	43.7¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	$10	40.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$40	87.3¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$30	59.9¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	No	$20	83.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$20	72.0¢	Won
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?	No	$25	22.5¢	Lost
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?	No	$20	86.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	$9	82.7¢	Won
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	$5	27.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$30	71.0¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	$20	19.0¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?	No	$16	80.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$50	37.2¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	Yes	$20	82.2¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$20	59.9¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	$40	85.0¢	Won
Will Evelyn Matthei come in third in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?	Yes	$10	15.0¢	Lost
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?	Yes	$50	67.0¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	$30	64.0¢	Won
Will 'Clair Obscur: Expedition 33' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards?	Yes	$200	69.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$40	81.0¢	Won
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?	No	$20	74.0¢	Won
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?	Yes	$10	26.3¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	Yes	$20	74.0¢	Won
US strikes Iraq by March 31	Yes	$20	87.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage	FURIA	$5	51.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	Yes	$25	40.9¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?	No	$10	55.5¢	Won
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance	Belgium	$10	47.0¢	Won
Will Conor McGregor win by KO or TKO?	No	$10	75.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?	No	$5	43.0¢	Won
Will Kast win by 10% to 15%?	No	$50	75.0¢	Won
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	No	$5	36.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iraq by March 7?	Yes	$20	72.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$40	79.4¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	No	$10	11.9¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$80	66.8¢	Won
Nothing Ever Happens: December	No	$25	36.1¢	Lost
Nothing Ever Happens: December	Yes	$140	83.8¢	Won

UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)Lost
Ian Machado Garry$5 @ 26.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?Lost
Yes$5 @ 46.0¢
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceLost
Argentina$20 @ 41.0¢
Epstein client list released in 2025?Won
No$320 @ 74.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$60 @ 64.7¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
Yes$100 @ 73.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$40 @ 73.3¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 33.0¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Lost
No$25 @ 32.5¢
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$15 @ 42.9¢
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500?Lost
Yes$15 @ 43.7¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Won
Yes$10 @ 40.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$40 @ 87.3¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$30 @ 59.9¢
US forces enter Iran by March 14?Won
No$20 @ 83.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$20 @ 72.0¢
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?Lost
No$25 @ 22.5¢
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?Won
No$20 @ 86.0¢
Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?Won
Yes$9 @ 82.7¢
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 27.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
No$30 @ 71.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?Won
No$20 @ 19.0¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?Won
No$16 @ 80.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$50 @ 37.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?Won
Yes$20 @ 82.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$20 @ 59.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?Won
Yes$40 @ 85.0¢
Will Evelyn Matthei come in third in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?Lost
Yes$10 @ 15.0¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?Won
Yes$50 @ 67.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Won
No$30 @ 64.0¢
Will 'Clair Obscur: Expedition 33' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards?Lost
Yes$200 @ 69.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$40 @ 81.0¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?Won
No$20 @ 74.0¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 26.3¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Won
Yes$20 @ 74.0¢
US strikes Iraq by March 31Won
Yes$20 @ 87.0¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group StageWon
FURIA$5 @ 51.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Won
Yes$25 @ 40.9¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?Won
No$10 @ 55.5¢
United States vs. Belgium: Team to AdvanceWon
Belgium$10 @ 47.0¢
Will Conor McGregor win by KO or TKO?Won
No$10 @ 75.0¢
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 43.0¢
Will Kast win by 10% to 15%?Won
No$50 @ 75.0¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Lost
No$5 @ 36.0¢
US strikes Iraq by March 7?Won
Yes$20 @ 72.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$40 @ 79.4¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?Won
No$10 @ 11.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$80 @ 66.8¢
Nothing Ever Happens: DecemberLost
No$25 @ 36.1¢
Nothing Ever Happens: DecemberWon
Yes$140 @ 83.8¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$65	79.4¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$30	76.0¢
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$20	80.0¢
Will England win on 2026-07-15?	—	Yes	$20	47.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$20	53.9¢
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	—	Argentina	$20	41.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500?	—	Yes	$15	43.7¢
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?	Tech	Yes	$5	46.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$5	43.0¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Sports	No	$5	36.0¢
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)	—	Ian Machado Garry	$5	26.0¢

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$65 @ 79.4¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$30 @ 76.0¢
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$20 @ 80.0¢
Will England win on 2026-07-15?—
Yes$20 @ 47.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$20 @ 53.9¢
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance—
Argentina$20 @ 41.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500?—
Yes$15 @ 43.7¢
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?Tech
Yes$5 @ 46.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$5 @ 43.0¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Sports
No$5 @ 36.0¢
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)—
Ian Machado Garry$5 @ 26.0¢