0xa1bd…880b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa1bdb11bea3ed660701b1e394789d8a83d6f880b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+11.1pp

ROI

+123%

Win rate

17% @ 6.3¢

Brier

0.149

Resolved

396

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	15% (4/27)	+149%	27
Politics	17% (3/18)	+49%	18
Geopolitics	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Sports	33% (1/3)	+443%	3
Culture	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Tech	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Crypto	50% (1/2)	-1%	2
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other27 bets
Hit rate
15% (4/27)
ROI
+149%
Politics18 bets
Hit rate
17% (3/18)
ROI
+49%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+443%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-1%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

15% hit · 9/60

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September?	Yes	$3	30.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$5	11.3¢	Lost
Will A*Teens win Melodifestivalen 2026?	Yes	$70	5.3¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	Yes	$16	16.0¢	Lost
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	Yes	$3	25.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during Address to the Nation?	No	$2	21.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	13.7¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$2	30.0¢	Lost
Trump out as President by April 30?	Yes	$6	1.5¢	Lost
Will Greczula win Melodifestivalen 2026?	Yes	$7	9.1¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	Yes	$8	18.4¢	Lost
Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation?	No	$2	9.0¢	Won
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$2	1.6¢	Lost
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	$3	50.0¢	Lost
Will Tucker Carlson announce Presidential run by June 30?	Yes	$2	3.9¢	Lost
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?	Yes	$6	7.0¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?	Yes	$7	7.1¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	Yes	$20	25.3¢	Won
Will Medina win Melodifestivalen 2026?	Yes	$5	3.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$3	34.5¢	Won
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$36	5.3¢	Lost
Will Felicia win Melodifestivalen 2026?	No	$108	14.2¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	Yes	$1	8.0¢	Lost
Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	Yes	$3	3.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?	Yes	$3	12.5¢	Lost
Will Sanna Nielsen win Melodifestivalen 2026?	Yes	$7	1.6¢	Lost
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$81	8.7¢	Lost
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$15	15.3¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$5	22.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$46	14.0¢	Won
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$44	2.7¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	$26	26.0¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	$12	2.1¢	Lost
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	5.7¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$20	14.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$9	27.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$62	0.8¢	Lost
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$205	1.7¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$5	8.6¢	Lost
Will Cimberly win Melodifestivalen 2026?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$53	4.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$1	18.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	$3	9.0¢	Lost
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	No	$21	51.2¢	Won
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$8	15.0¢	Lost
Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?	Yes	$2	6.4¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Lost
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$3	2.8¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$14	0.4¢	Lost

Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September?Lost
Yes$3 @ 30.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 11.3¢
Will A*Teens win Melodifestivalen 2026?Lost
Yes$70 @ 5.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Lost
Yes$16 @ 16.0¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 25.0¢
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during Address to the Nation?Lost
No$2 @ 21.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 13.7¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$2 @ 30.0¢
Trump out as President by April 30?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.5¢
Will Greczula win Melodifestivalen 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 9.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Lost
Yes$8 @ 18.4¢
Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation?Won
No$2 @ 9.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.6¢
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?Lost
No$3 @ 50.0¢
Will Tucker Carlson announce Presidential run by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.9¢
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?Lost
Yes$6 @ 7.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?Lost
Yes$7 @ 7.1¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Won
Yes$20 @ 25.3¢
Will Medina win Melodifestivalen 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 3.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$3 @ 34.5¢
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$36 @ 5.3¢
Will Felicia win Melodifestivalen 2026?Lost
No$108 @ 14.2¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
Will Trump Insult Xi this week?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.9¢
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Lost
Yes$3 @ 12.5¢
Will Sanna Nielsen win Melodifestivalen 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 1.6¢
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$81 @ 8.7¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$15 @ 15.3¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
No$5 @ 22.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$46 @ 14.0¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?Won
Yes$44 @ 2.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Lost
Yes$26 @ 26.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Lost
Yes$12 @ 2.1¢
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.7¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$20 @ 14.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$9 @ 27.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$62 @ 0.8¢
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$205 @ 1.7¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$5 @ 8.6¢
Will Cimberly win Melodifestivalen 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$53 @ 4.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 18.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 9.0¢
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?Won
No$21 @ 51.2¢
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 15.0¢
Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?Lost
Yes$2 @ 6.4¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 2.8¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$14 @ 0.4¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$26	12.2¢
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$24	37.3¢
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$14	9.1¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$14	20.5¢
Mistral AI IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$8	16.7¢
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$7	20.3¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$7	13.6¢
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$5	22.0¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	No	$5	18.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$5	30.0¢
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?	Economy	Yes	$3	22.7¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Science	Yes	$3	7.7¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$2	24.0¢
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?	Science	Yes	$2	9.3¢
Ebola pandemic in 2026?	Science	Yes	$2	7.0¢
Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$2	0.8¢
Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$1	15.6¢
GTA VI released by October 31?	Culture	Yes	$1	5.5¢

Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
Yes$26 @ 12.2¢
OpenAI IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$24 @ 37.3¢
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?Tech
Yes$14 @ 9.1¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$14 @ 20.5¢
Mistral AI IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$8 @ 16.7¢
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$7 @ 20.3¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
Yes$7 @ 13.6¢
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$5 @ 22.0¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
No$5 @ 18.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$5 @ 30.0¢
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?Economy
Yes$3 @ 22.7¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
Yes$3 @ 7.7¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?Politics
Yes$2 @ 24.0¢
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? Science
Yes$2 @ 9.3¢
Ebola pandemic in 2026?Science
Yes$2 @ 7.0¢
Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$2 @ 0.8¢
Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?Tech
Yes$1 @ 15.6¢
GTA VI released by October 31?Culture
Yes$1 @ 5.5¢