0xa14b…05e4

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa14bf68614d94e49236f0f86eeb026f04ebe05e4
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+15.6pp

ROI

+64%

Win rate

47% @ 31.0¢

Brier

0.135

Resolved

Avg size

$35

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (12/24)	+63%	24
Politics	33% (2/6)	+148%	6
Sports	50% (1/2)	-13%	2
Science	50% (1/2)	+18%	2
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other24 bets
Hit rate
50% (12/24)
ROI
+63%
Politics6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
+148%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-13%
Science2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+18%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

46% hit · 16/35

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$58	58.1¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	Yes	$44	44.3¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$41	40.5¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	No	$26	11.8¢	Lost
Will GE Vernova (GEV) Q2 orders be above $22B?	Yes	$122	35.0¢	Won
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $40B?	No	$8	4.1¢	Lost
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $40B?	Yes	$66	50.0¢	Won
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?	Yes	$74	74.0¢	Won
Megaquake by July 31?	No	$178	78.1¢	Won
Megaquake by July 31?	Yes	$15	6.0¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	Yes	$54	1.2¢	Lost
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	Yes	$90	14.1¢	Won
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30?	Yes	$1	7.4¢	Lost
Will Blackstone (BX) Q2 total assets under management be above $1.35T?	No	$151	65.0¢	Won
Will Honeywell Technologies (HON) Q2 Building Automation sales be above $1.9B?	Yes	$9	21.0¢	Won
Will Wells Fargo (WFC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.15B?	No	$116	22.6¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	$1	16.0¢	Lost
Will GE Vernova (GEV) Q2 orders be above $20B?	Yes	$35	31.0¢	Won
Will Lyft (LYFT) Q2 rides be above 185M?	No	$1	1.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?	Yes	$4	1.6¢	Lost
Will Pontus Nyholm finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Corales Puntacana Championship?	No	$82	82.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$176	88.0¢	Won
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	No	$145	58.1¢	Won
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	$9	0.1¢	Lost
Will Bank of America say "Recession" during earnings call?	Yes	$6	24.0¢	Lost
Will Bank of America say "Cryptocurrency" during earnings call?	Yes	$0	1.2¢	Lost
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.35B?	Yes	$668	47.9¢	Won
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B?	No	$14	22.0¢	Lost
Will GPT-Bidi-1 be released by July 31, 2026?	No	$1	0.4¢	Lost
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026?	Yes	$1	0.9¢	Lost
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26?	Yes	$104	17.5¢	Lost
Will Wells Fargo (WFC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.275B?	No	$18	43.0¢	Won
Dota 2: ZEDI Esports vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner	GamerLegion	$472	66.6¢	Won
Dota 2: ZEDI Esports vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner	ZEDI Esports	$319	2.4¢	Lost
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?	Yes	$5	4.4¢	Lost

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$58 @ 58.1¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Lost
Yes$44 @ 44.3¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$41 @ 40.5¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Lost
No$26 @ 11.8¢
Will GE Vernova (GEV) Q2 orders be above $22B?Won
Yes$122 @ 35.0¢
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $40B?Lost
No$8 @ 4.1¢
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $40B?Won
Yes$66 @ 50.0¢
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?Won
Yes$74 @ 74.0¢
Megaquake by July 31?Won
No$178 @ 78.1¢
Megaquake by July 31?Lost
Yes$15 @ 6.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Lost
Yes$54 @ 1.2¢
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
Yes$90 @ 14.1¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.4¢
Will Blackstone (BX) Q2 total assets under management be above $1.35T?Won
No$151 @ 65.0¢
Will Honeywell Technologies (HON) Q2 Building Automation sales be above $1.9B?Won
Yes$9 @ 21.0¢
Will Wells Fargo (WFC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.15B?Won
No$116 @ 22.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 16.0¢
Will GE Vernova (GEV) Q2 orders be above $20B?Won
Yes$35 @ 31.0¢
Will Lyft (LYFT) Q2 rides be above 185M?Lost
No$1 @ 1.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 1.6¢
Will Pontus Nyholm finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Corales Puntacana Championship?Won
No$82 @ 82.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$176 @ 88.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?Won
No$145 @ 58.1¢
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.1¢
Will Bank of America say "Recession" during earnings call?Lost
Yes$6 @ 24.0¢
Will Bank of America say "Cryptocurrency" during earnings call?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.2¢
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.35B?Won
Yes$668 @ 47.9¢
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B?Lost
No$14 @ 22.0¢
Will GPT-Bidi-1 be released by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 0.4¢
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.9¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26?Lost
Yes$104 @ 17.5¢
Will Wells Fargo (WFC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.275B?Won
No$18 @ 43.0¢
Dota 2: ZEDI Esports vs GamerLegion - Game 1 WinnerWon
GamerLegion$472 @ 66.6¢
Dota 2: ZEDI Esports vs GamerLegion - Game 2 WinnerLost
ZEDI Esports$319 @ 2.4¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 4.4¢

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