0xa0c3…5b9a

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa0c37cb0587b0dd1542f794bcfa345762bba5b9a
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.1pp

ROI

+5%

Win rate

57% @ 52.8¢

Brier

0.153

Resolved

1223

Avg size

$216

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	47% (9/19)	+1%	19
Other	47% (9/19)	+59%	19
Crypto	50% (5/10)	+6%	10
Tech	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Geopolitics	50% (1/2)	-33%	2

Politics19 bets
Hit rate
47% (9/19)
ROI
+1%
Other19 bets
Hit rate
47% (9/19)
ROI
+59%
Crypto10 bets
Hit rate
50% (5/10)
ROI
+6%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-33%

Track record

44% hit · 24/54

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$408	68.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$176	44.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1?	No	$104	52.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1?	Yes	$47	51.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$17	1.8¢	Lost
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?	No	$87	5.3¢	Lost
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?	Yes	$526	72.1¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$80.2k	72.6¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$49.2k	32.1¢	Lost
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1?	No	$663	13.9¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$8.7k	53.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$7.4k	45.3¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	$2.8k	11.2¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$29.6k	86.9¢	Won
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?	No	$35	12.8¢	Lost
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?	Yes	$47	79.7¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$324	19.2¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.3k	79.5¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	$10.1k	30.7¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$70.9k	65.9¢	Won
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 5-11?	No	$160	65.6¢	Won
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 5-11?	Yes	$193	52.6¢	Lost
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 5-11?	No	$43	1.0¢	Lost
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 5-11?	Yes	$447	84.3¢	Won
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	$180	45.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$220	55.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	Yes	$5	2.3¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$32	3.1¢	Lost
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	$4	1.1¢	Lost
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?	No	$96	16.0¢	Lost
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?	Yes	$496	82.7¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	2.6¢	Lost
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	$16	87.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$890	89.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$150	8.3¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	$346	86.0¢	Won
Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	$180	11.3¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$1.9k	74.1¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$382	13.6¢	Lost
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$323	13.0¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	$534	84.2¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$918	76.5¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$872	39.6¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	$21	6.8¢	Lost
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 28-May 4?	No	$2.2k	58.2¢	Won
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	No	$18	18.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 28-May 4?	No	$16	56.4¢	Won
Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	$314	78.5¢	Won
Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	$137	15.2¢	Lost

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$408 @ 68.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$176 @ 44.0¢
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1?Won
No$104 @ 52.0¢
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1?Lost
Yes$47 @ 51.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$17 @ 1.8¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?Lost
No$87 @ 5.3¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?Won
Yes$526 @ 72.1¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$80.2k @ 72.6¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$49.2k @ 32.1¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1?Won
No$663 @ 13.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$8.7k @ 53.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$7.4k @ 45.3¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$2.8k @ 11.2¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$29.6k @ 86.9¢
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?Lost
No$35 @ 12.8¢
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?Won
Yes$47 @ 79.7¢
Will OpenAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$324 @ 19.2¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 79.5¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$10.1k @ 30.7¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$70.9k @ 65.9¢
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 5-11?Won
No$160 @ 65.6¢
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 5-11?Lost
Yes$193 @ 52.6¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 5-11?Lost
No$43 @ 1.0¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 5-11?Won
Yes$447 @ 84.3¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$180 @ 45.0¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$220 @ 55.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.3¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$32 @ 3.1¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 1.1¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?Lost
No$96 @ 16.0¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?Won
Yes$496 @ 82.7¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.6¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Lost
Yes$16 @ 87.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$890 @ 89.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$150 @ 8.3¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
No$346 @ 86.0¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Lost
Yes$180 @ 11.3¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
No$1.9k @ 74.1¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$382 @ 13.6¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$323 @ 13.0¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Lost
Yes$534 @ 84.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$918 @ 76.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$872 @ 39.6¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Lost
No$21 @ 6.8¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 28-May 4?Won
No$2.2k @ 58.2¢
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?Lost
No$18 @ 18.0¢
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 28-May 4?Won
No$16 @ 56.4¢
Iran leadership change by June 30?Won
No$314 @ 78.5¢
Iran leadership change by June 30?Lost
Yes$137 @ 15.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	No	$996	99.6¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$890	89.0¢
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	Crypto	Yes	$93	16.9¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	—	Yes	$68	27.2¢

Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
No$996 @ 99.6¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$890 @ 89.0¢
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81Crypto
Yes$93 @ 16.9¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?—
Yes$68 @ 27.2¢