0xa0c3…5b9a

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa0c37cb0587b0dd1542f794bcfa345762bba5b9a
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

-4.7pp

ROI

+4%

Win rate

50% @ 54.4¢

Brier

0.249

Resolved

628

Avg size

$175

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	67% (36/54)	+1%	54
Politics	52% (17/33)	+10%	33
Tech	75% (15/20)	+9%	20
Crypto	57% (8/14)	+23%	14
Sports	71% (5/7)	-4%	7
Geopolitics	33% (1/3)	-33%	3
Economy	50% (1/2)	+12%	2
Culture	100% (1/1)	+0%	1
Business	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other54 bets
Hit rate
67% (36/54)
ROI
+1%
Politics33 bets
Hit rate
52% (17/33)
ROI
+10%
Tech20 bets
Hit rate
75% (15/20)
ROI
+9%
Crypto14 bets
Hit rate
57% (8/14)
ROI
+23%
Sports7 bets
Hit rate
71% (5/7)
ROI
-4%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-33%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+12%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+0%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

62% hit · 84/135

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	$5.0k	99.6¢	Won
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase September 29-October 5?	No	$715	89.5¢	Won
Will Microstrategy announce selling any Bitcoin September 29-October 5?	No	$102	99.4¢	Won
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$77	77.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	25.0¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 22, 2026?	Yes	$165	82.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$88	22.0¢	Lost
Will Edu Aguirre attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?	No	$134	72.9¢	Won
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	Yes	$84	84.2¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	$74	65.0¢	Won
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	$290	29.0¢	Lost
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$12.8k	75.1¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	No	$438	72.9¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	Yes	$138	23.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$1.8k	82.7¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	$356	16.2¢	Lost
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	No	$38	76.9¢	Won
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	No	$115	76.7¢	Won
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	$573	57.0¢	Lost
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$320	32.0¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?	No	$0	6.2¢	Lost
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	No	$163	81.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$10.9k	55.9¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$20.1k	52.2¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$691	68.0¢	Won
Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	Yes	$6	30.2¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$23.2k	57.2¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$17.2k	52.7¢	Lost
Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?	Yes	$1	6.0¢	Won
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?	No	$13	15.2¢	Won
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?	Yes	$896	74.6¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?	No	$3	59.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$641	75.2¢	Lost
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	Yes	$51	33.8¢	Lost
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?	No	$8	95.6¢	Won
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	Yes	$14	28.0¢	Lost
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	Yes	$4	4.2¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$90	9.0¢	Lost
France vs. Spain: O/U 8.5	Under	$1.9k	99.7¢	Won
France vs. England: O/U 8.5	Under	$205	99.2¢	Lost
Will England win on 2026-07-15?	No	$9.9k	99.5¢	Won
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$5.0k	99.6¢	Won
Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Yes	$366	99.9¢	Won
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 31?	No	$12	4.1¢	Lost
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$996	99.6¢	Won
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?	Yes	$293	97.6¢	Won
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 30-July 6?	No	$434	94.5¢	Won
GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?	No	$568	87.8¢	Won
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?	No	$73.4k	99.9¢	Won
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$2	93.0¢	Won

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Won
No$5.0k @ 99.6¢
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase September 29-October 5?Won
No$715 @ 89.5¢
Will Microstrategy announce selling any Bitcoin September 29-October 5?Won
No$102 @ 99.4¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$77 @ 77.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 25.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 22, 2026?Won
Yes$165 @ 82.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$88 @ 22.0¢
Will Edu Aguirre attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?Won
No$134 @ 72.9¢
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?Won
Yes$84 @ 84.2¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?Won
Yes$74 @ 65.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
No$290 @ 29.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$12.8k @ 75.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Won
No$438 @ 72.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$138 @ 23.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$1.8k @ 82.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
Yes$356 @ 16.2¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Won
No$38 @ 76.9¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?Won
No$115 @ 76.7¢
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Lost
No$573 @ 57.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$320 @ 32.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$0 @ 6.2¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Won
No$163 @ 81.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
No$10.9k @ 55.9¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$20.1k @ 52.2¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$691 @ 68.0¢
Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?Lost
Yes$6 @ 30.2¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Won
No$23.2k @ 57.2¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$17.2k @ 52.7¢
Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?Won
No$13 @ 15.2¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?Lost
Yes$896 @ 74.6¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?Won
No$3 @ 59.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$641 @ 75.2¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?Lost
Yes$51 @ 33.8¢
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?Won
No$8 @ 95.6¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?Lost
Yes$14 @ 28.0¢
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?Lost
Yes$4 @ 4.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$90 @ 9.0¢
France vs. Spain: O/U 8.5Won
Under$1.9k @ 99.7¢
France vs. England: O/U 8.5Lost
Under$205 @ 99.2¢
Will England win on 2026-07-15?Won
No$9.9k @ 99.5¢
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$5.0k @ 99.6¢
Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?Won
Yes$366 @ 99.9¢
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 31?Lost
No$12 @ 4.1¢
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$996 @ 99.6¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?Won
Yes$293 @ 97.6¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 30-July 6?Won
No$434 @ 94.5¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?Won
No$568 @ 87.8¢
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?Won
No$73.4k @ 99.9¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 93.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$11.8k	83.4¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$11.8k	69.6¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$9.4k	41.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Politics	No	$5.0k	99.6¢
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$1.6k	96.1¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$1.2k	90.7¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$994	99.4¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$956	71.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$759	63.2¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$680	34.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$443	82.2¢
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	Crypto	Yes	$220	10.5¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$191	95.3¢
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	Culture	Yes	$172	41.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$143	71.6¢
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Geopolitics	Yes	$126	84.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$91	91.0¢
No one announced as next James Bond?	Culture	Yes	$70	29.4¢
Will voter turnout in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 78-80%?	Politics	Yes	$40	99.2¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$24	4.9¢
Will voter turnout in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be less than 76%?	Politics	No	$20	99.9¢
Will voter turnout in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 82% or more?	Politics	No	$10	99.8¢
Will voter turnout in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 76-78%?	Politics	No	$5	99.8¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Business	Yes	$4	71.0¢

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
No$11.8k @ 83.4¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$11.8k @ 69.6¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$9.4k @ 41.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
No$5.0k @ 99.6¢
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?Geopolitics
No$1.6k @ 96.1¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$1.2k @ 90.7¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$994 @ 99.4¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$956 @ 71.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?Politics
Yes$759 @ 63.2¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$680 @ 34.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$443 @ 82.2¢
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81Crypto
Yes$220 @ 10.5¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$191 @ 95.3¢
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?Culture
Yes$172 @ 41.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$143 @ 71.6¢
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?Geopolitics
Yes$126 @ 84.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?Politics
No$91 @ 91.0¢
No one announced as next James Bond?Culture
Yes$70 @ 29.4¢
Will voter turnout in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 78-80%?Politics
Yes$40 @ 99.2¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$24 @ 4.9¢
Will voter turnout in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be less than 76%?Politics
No$20 @ 99.9¢
Will voter turnout in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 82% or more?Politics
No$10 @ 99.8¢
Will voter turnout in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 76-78%?Politics
No$5 @ 99.8¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Business
Yes$4 @ 71.0¢