0xa043…3e9e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xa043c1be807b50640a25fdef01ca788abb3a3e9e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-7.1pp

ROI

+36%

Win rate

7% @ 14.4¢

Brier

0.022

Resolved

123

Avg size

$36

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	17% (4/24)	-54%	24
Tech	50% (2/4)	+172%	4

Other24 bets
Hit rate
17% (4/24)
ROI
-54%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+172%

Track record

21% hit · 6/28

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500?	Yes	$80	16.0¢	Lost
GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026?	Yes	$172	86.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$26	23.0¢	Lost
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$1	5.7¢	Lost
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$10	0.4¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$1.7k	36.2¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$100	1.0¢	Lost
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 16, 2026?	Yes	$5	1.7¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	No	$14	22.4¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?	No	$51	17.0¢	Lost
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	$359	43.5¢	Lost
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	Yes	$10	86.0¢	Won
GPT-5.4 released by March 5?	No	$251	13.6¢	Lost
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?	No	$40	20.0¢	Lost
Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?	Yes	$12	6.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?	No	$69	58.8¢	Lost
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 21, 2026?	Yes	$30	3.4¢	Lost
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$14	2.5¢	Lost
GPT-5.5 released by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$31	4.1¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?	No	$21	36.1¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31?	Yes	$15	1.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	No	$700	84.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$204	16.4¢	Lost
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520?	Yes	$30	6.3¢	Lost
Canucks vs. Blackhawks	Blackhawks	$126	42.2¢	Lost
Canucks vs. Blackhawks	Canucks	$21	69.0¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	No	$175	85.7¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$199	9.5¢	Lost

Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500?Lost
Yes$80 @ 16.0¢
GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026?Won
Yes$172 @ 86.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$26 @ 23.0¢
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.7¢
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.4¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 36.2¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?Lost
Yes$100 @ 1.0¢
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 16, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.7¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
No$14 @ 22.4¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?Lost
No$51 @ 17.0¢
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
No$359 @ 43.5¢
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?Won
Yes$10 @ 86.0¢
GPT-5.4 released by March 5?Lost
No$251 @ 13.6¢
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?Lost
No$40 @ 20.0¢
Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$12 @ 6.0¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
No$69 @ 58.8¢
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$30 @ 3.4¢
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$14 @ 2.5¢
GPT-5.5 released by April 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$31 @ 4.1¢
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
No$21 @ 36.1¢
Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31?Lost
Yes$15 @ 1.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Won
No$700 @ 84.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$204 @ 16.4¢
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520?Lost
Yes$30 @ 6.3¢
Canucks vs. BlackhawksLost
Blackhawks$126 @ 42.2¢
Canucks vs. BlackhawksWon
Canucks$21 @ 69.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Won
No$175 @ 85.7¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$199 @ 9.5¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?	Economy	No	$394	75.0¢
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	—	No	$359	43.5¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Tech	No	$236	76.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	Business	Yes	$222	74.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 18, 2026?	Business	No	$187	74.8¢
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$127	11.0¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$122	13.6¢
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500?	—	Yes	$80	16.0¢
US recession by end of 2026?	Economy	No	$75	75.0¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?	—	No	$69	58.8¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?	—	No	$51	17.0¢
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?	—	No	$40	20.0¢
GPT-5.5 released by April 17, 2026?	—	Yes	$31	4.1¢
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 21, 2026?	—	Yes	$30	3.5¢
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520?	—	Yes	$30	6.5¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	—	Yes	$26	23.0¢
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?	—	No	$21	36.1¢
Anthropic IPO: Open Price above IPO Price?	Tech	Yes	$17	87.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31?	—	Yes	$15	1.3¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	—	No	$14	22.4¢
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	—	Yes	$14	2.5¢
Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$12	6.0¢
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$9	0.4¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 19, 2026?	Business	Yes	$8	43.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	—	Yes	$5	9.5¢
Will Meta’s market capitalization be at least $1.875T at the end of December 2026?	Business	Yes	$2	12.0¢
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	—	Yes	$1	5.7¢

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?Economy
No$394 @ 75.0¢
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?—
No$359 @ 43.5¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Tech
No$236 @ 76.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?Business
Yes$222 @ 74.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 18, 2026?Business
No$187 @ 74.8¢
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?Politics
Yes$127 @ 11.0¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$122 @ 13.6¢
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500?—
Yes$80 @ 16.0¢
US recession by end of 2026?Economy
No$75 @ 75.0¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?—
No$69 @ 58.8¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?—
No$51 @ 17.0¢
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?—
No$40 @ 20.0¢
GPT-5.5 released by April 17, 2026?—
Yes$31 @ 4.1¢
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 21, 2026?—
Yes$30 @ 3.5¢
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520?—
Yes$30 @ 6.5¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?—
Yes$26 @ 23.0¢
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?—
No$21 @ 36.1¢
Anthropic IPO: Open Price above IPO Price?Tech
Yes$17 @ 87.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31?—
Yes$15 @ 1.3¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?—
No$14 @ 22.4¢
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?—
Yes$14 @ 2.5¢
Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?Tech
Yes$12 @ 6.0¢
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$9 @ 0.4¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 19, 2026?Business
Yes$8 @ 43.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?—
Yes$5 @ 9.5¢
Will Meta’s market capitalization be at least $1.875T at the end of December 2026?Business
Yes$2 @ 12.0¢
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?—
Yes$1 @ 5.7¢