← Smart money
0x9f83…6cd9
SharpEdge
+22.2pp
ROI
+44%
Win rate
70% @ 47.5¢
Brier
0.179
Resolved
390
Avg size
$131
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 50% (19/38) | +44% | 38 |
| Sports | 50% (2/4) | +30% | 4 |
| Politics | 67% (2/3) | +2% | 3 |
| Crypto | 50% (1/2) | -39% | 2 |
| Tech | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (1/1) | +12% | 1 |
- Other38 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (19/38)
- ROI
- +44%
- Sports4 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (2/4)
- ROI
- +30%
- Politics3 bets
- Hit rate
- 67% (2/3)
- ROI
- +2%
- Crypto2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- -39%
- Tech1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +12%
Track record
51% hit · 25/49- No$2 @ 27.3¢
- Yes$757 @ 58.0¢
- No$1 @ 0.6¢
- Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
- Yes$79 @ 79.0¢
- No$193 @ 42.0¢
- Yes$4.8k @ 65.1¢
- No$76 @ 76.0¢
- No$1.2k @ 73.6¢
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win <36% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?LostYes$29 @ 18.0¢
- No$1 @ 22.8¢
- No$19 @ 57.0¢
- Yes$343 @ 31.9¢
- Yes$877 @ 70.7¢
- No$2.8k @ 73.3¢
- Yes$2 @ 16.0¢
- No$24.8k @ 71.2¢
- Yes$287 @ 11.5¢
- No$2 @ 7.0¢
- No$234 @ 72.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 46.0¢
- Will another party win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?LostYes$3 @ 0.3¢
- Yes$61 @ 61.0¢
- No$1.0k @ 65.6¢
- Yes$10 @ 63.0¢
- Team Vitality$32 @ 64.1¢
- No$49 @ 32.0¢
- Yes$245 @ 72.2¢
- Yes$2.5k @ 72.2¢
- No$3 @ 13.2¢
- Yes$4.0k @ 38.3¢
- Yes$4 @ 0.2¢
- Yes$20 @ 1.5¢
- No$1.0k @ 88.7¢
- No$528 @ 99.3¢
- No$114 @ 90.3¢
- No$25 @ 89.0¢
- No$96 @ 44.4¢
- Yes$66 @ 65.9¢
- Yes$41 @ 41.0¢
- No$41 @ 82.3¢
- Yes$16 @ 16.0¢
- Yes$34 @ 67.0¢
- No$4.1k @ 98.8¢
- Yes$17 @ 85.0¢
- No$461 @ 85.9¢
- Yes$685 @ 85.6¢
- No$250 @ 91.7¢
- Yes$200 @ 45.3¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | Geopolitics | No | $25.1k | 98.0¢ |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | Science | No | $20.1k | 97.8¢ |
| Ebola pandemic in 2026? | Science | No | $2.8k | 92.0¢ |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23? | — | No | $2.4k | 92.8¢ |
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Politics | No | $363 | 93.2¢ |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | Politics | No | $272 | 90.5¢ |
| Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026? | — | Yes | $180 | 89.8¢ |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $135 | 72.9¢ |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $120 | 12.0¢ |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | — | No | $100 | 77.1¢ |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Politics | No | $22 | 43.0¢ |
| US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15? | — | Yes | $9 | 87.0¢ |
| Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31? | — | Yes | $2 | 20.0¢ |
- No$25.1k @ 98.0¢
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?ScienceNo$20.1k @ 97.8¢
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?ScienceNo$2.8k @ 92.0¢
- No$2.4k @ 92.8¢
- No$363 @ 93.2¢
- No$272 @ 90.5¢
- Yes$180 @ 89.8¢
- No$135 @ 72.9¢
- Yes$120 @ 12.0¢
- No$100 @ 77.1¢
- No$22 @ 43.0¢
- Yes$9 @ 87.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 20.0¢