0x9f83…6cd9

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x9f83f83bdfc209c6fade8a2c77ea9667e9176cd9
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+2.9pp

ROI

+3%

Win rate

56% @ 52.6¢

Brier

0.142

Resolved

2770

Avg size

$106

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	56% (263/467)	+4%	467
Politics	79% (46/58)	+7%	58
Sports	65% (35/54)	-4%	54
Tech	89% (8/9)	+9%	9
Geopolitics	86% (6/7)	+1%	7
Culture	50% (1/2)	-6%	2
Crypto	50% (1/2)	-39%	2
Science	100% (1/1)	+3%	1

Other467 bets
Hit rate
56% (263/467)
ROI
+4%
Politics58 bets
Hit rate
79% (46/58)
ROI
+7%
Sports54 bets
Hit rate
65% (35/54)
ROI
-4%
Tech9 bets
Hit rate
89% (8/9)
ROI
+9%
Geopolitics7 bets
Hit rate
86% (6/7)
ROI
+1%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-6%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-39%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+3%

Track record

60% hit · 361/600

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?	No	$1.1k	60.9¢	Lost
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?	No	$75	62.5¢	Lost
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?	Yes	$556	70.6¢	Won
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?	No	$73	73.0¢	Won
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	$2	27.3¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?	No	$88	87.7¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in November?	No	$43	86.0¢	Won
Will Leon Marchand (FRA) win Gold in Men's 200m Butterfly?	No	$78	40.0¢	Lost
Will Novak Djokovic win the US Open?	No	$36	72.0¢	Won
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?	Yes	$757	58.0¢	Won
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?	Yes	$1.3k	8.4¢	Lost
FTX doesn't start payouts in 2024?	Yes	$742	80.0¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31?	No	$61	61.0¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31?	Yes	$39	19.5¢	Lost
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?	No	$16	28.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk give a speech at Bitcoin conference?	No	$2.5k	77.1¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	No	$1	0.6¢	Lost
Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?	No	$97	55.0¢	Lost
X banned in Brazil by Friday?	Yes	$559	85.9¢	Won
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-14?	Yes	$152	37.6¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-13?	No	$26	26.0¢	Lost
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-01?	Yes	$57	51.4¢	Won
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?	No	$25	25.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	$2.6k	83.1¢	Won
Lana Del Rey pregnant in 2024?	No	$168	84.0¢	Won
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?	Yes	$527	40.8¢	Won
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?	Yes	$659	24.3¢	Won
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?	Yes	$79	79.0¢	Won
Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-19?	No	$21	42.0¢	Lost
Will Circle IPO in 2024?	No	$86	86.0¢	Won
Will Manchester United beat Liverpool?	Yes	$12	24.0¢	Lost
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Yes	$12	29.0¢	Won
Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-25?	No	$80	60.0¢	Lost
Will Tisza win at least 110 seats?	Yes	$2.4k	62.8¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	No	$635	42.7¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$5.4k	63.7¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on March 31?	Yes	$1	0.7¢	Lost
500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April?	No	$318	83.0¢	Won
500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April?	Yes	$129	32.3¢	Lost
Will the HBO documentary identify Shinichi Mochizuki as Satoshi?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	Yes	$101	62.0¢	Won
Will Noah Lyles (USA) win Gold in 100m?	No	$60	60.0¢	Lost
Will Sam Sevian win the 2024 US Chess Championship?	Yes	$59	3.5¢	Lost
Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS by August 15?	No	$11	50.0¢	Won
Will Anderlecht beat Ferencvaros?	Yes	$8	39.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Secret Service" during RNC speech?	Yes	$1	71.0¢	Won
Grok 4.20 released by January 15?	Yes	$136	16.1¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	$100	76.0¢	Won
Will Chelsea beat Crystal Palace?	Yes	$116	58.0¢	Lost

Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?Lost
No$1.1k @ 60.9¢
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?Lost
No$75 @ 62.5¢
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?Won
Yes$556 @ 70.6¢
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?Won
No$73 @ 73.0¢
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Lost
No$2 @ 27.3¢
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?Won
No$88 @ 87.7¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in November?Won
No$43 @ 86.0¢
Will Leon Marchand (FRA) win Gold in Men's 200m Butterfly?Lost
No$78 @ 40.0¢
Will Novak Djokovic win the US Open?Won
No$36 @ 72.0¢
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?Won
Yes$757 @ 58.0¢
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 8.4¢
FTX doesn't start payouts in 2024?Won
Yes$742 @ 80.0¢
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31?Won
No$61 @ 61.0¢
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31?Lost
Yes$39 @ 19.5¢
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?Lost
No$16 @ 28.0¢
Will Elon Musk give a speech at Bitcoin conference? Won
No$2.5k @ 77.1¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Lost
No$1 @ 0.6¢
Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?Lost
No$97 @ 55.0¢
X banned in Brazil by Friday?Won
Yes$559 @ 85.9¢
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-14?Won
Yes$152 @ 37.6¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-13?Lost
No$26 @ 26.0¢
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-01?Won
Yes$57 @ 51.4¢
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?Lost
No$25 @ 25.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025?Won
No$2.6k @ 83.1¢
Lana Del Rey pregnant in 2024?Won
No$168 @ 84.0¢
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?Won
Yes$527 @ 40.8¢
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?Won
Yes$659 @ 24.3¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?Won
Yes$79 @ 79.0¢
Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-19?Lost
No$21 @ 42.0¢
Will Circle IPO in 2024?Won
No$86 @ 86.0¢
Will Manchester United beat Liverpool?Lost
Yes$12 @ 24.0¢
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?Won
Yes$12 @ 29.0¢
Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-25?Lost
No$80 @ 60.0¢
Will Tisza win at least 110 seats?Won
Yes$2.4k @ 62.8¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Lost
No$635 @ 42.7¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$5.4k @ 63.7¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on March 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.7¢
500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April?Won
No$318 @ 83.0¢
500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April?Lost
Yes$129 @ 32.3¢
Will the HBO documentary identify Shinichi Mochizuki as Satoshi?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?Won
Yes$101 @ 62.0¢
Will Noah Lyles (USA) win Gold in 100m?Lost
No$60 @ 60.0¢
Will Sam Sevian win the 2024 US Chess Championship?Lost
Yes$59 @ 3.5¢
Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS by August 15? Won
No$11 @ 50.0¢
Will Anderlecht beat Ferencvaros?Won
Yes$8 @ 39.0¢
Will Trump say "Secret Service" during RNC speech?Won
Yes$1 @ 71.0¢
Grok 4.20 released by January 15?Lost
Yes$136 @ 16.1¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Won
No$100 @ 76.0¢
Will Chelsea beat Crystal Palace?Lost
Yes$116 @ 58.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$34.7k	97.7¢
Ebola pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$4.7k	93.5¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$1.9k	87.1¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.9k	94.5¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.5k	96.7¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$770	77.0¢
Viktor Orbán arrested by...?	Politics	No	$706	74.8¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$644	92.0¢
No one announced as next James Bond?	Culture	No	$445	74.2¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	No	$363	93.2¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$362	99.6¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$184	92.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$167	83.3¢
Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027?	Politics	No	$152	50.7¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?	Culture	Yes	$140	35.0¢
Plague pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$96	96.2¢
New pandemic in 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$95	95.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	No	$92	92.3¢
Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027?	Politics	No	$49	96.1¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$22	43.0¢
Will Ronaldinho attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	Sports	No	$18	88.0¢

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
No$34.7k @ 97.7¢
Ebola pandemic in 2026?Science
No$4.7k @ 93.5¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$1.9k @ 87.1¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$1.9k @ 94.5¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.5k @ 96.7¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$770 @ 77.0¢
Viktor Orbán arrested by...?Politics
No$706 @ 74.8¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$644 @ 92.0¢
No one announced as next James Bond?Culture
No$445 @ 74.2¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
No$363 @ 93.2¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$362 @ 99.6¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$184 @ 92.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$167 @ 83.3¢
Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027?Politics
No$152 @ 50.7¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?Culture
Yes$140 @ 35.0¢
Plague pandemic in 2026?Science
No$96 @ 96.2¢
New pandemic in 2026?Geopolitics
No$95 @ 95.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
No$92 @ 92.3¢
Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027?Politics
No$49 @ 96.1¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$22 @ 43.0¢
Will Ronaldinho attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?Sports
No$18 @ 88.0¢