0x9f4b…f9bf

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x9f4b897e75cc6de3ea741d5c0ace40d3f56df9bf
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+7.0pp

ROI

+9%

Win rate

42% @ 35.2¢

Brier

0.224

Resolved

244

Avg size

$67

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	34% (33/96)	+11%	96
Sports	17% (3/18)	-16%	18
Politics	40% (2/5)	+30%	5
Tech	33% (1/3)	-30%	3
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other96 bets
Hit rate
34% (33/96)
ROI
+11%
Sports18 bets
Hit rate
17% (3/18)
ROI
-16%
Politics5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
+30%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-30%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

32% hit · 39/123

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-15?	Yes	$20	11.0¢	Lost
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1500.00 or higher on December 31 2025?	No	$250	45.3¢	Won
Will Trump say "Tax on Tips" while addressing the nation on December 17?	No	$52	40.0¢	Lost
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?	No	$100	64.0¢	Won
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1475.00 and 1499.99 on December 31 2025?	Yes	$75	34.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 23?	Yes	$30	29.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 24?	Yes	$30	32.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on March 23?	Yes	$30	31.0¢	Lost
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$74	74.0¢	Won
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in February 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0%?	Yes	$172	51.4¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$261	87.6¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$172	35.5¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$31	16.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Eight War" or "Eighth War" while addressing the nation on December 17?	No	$60	38.1¢	Lost
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	$31	30.0¢	Lost
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	No	$31	31.0¢	Lost
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?	No	$100	63.0¢	Lost
Will CA Platense win on 2025-11-08?	Yes	$65	19.8¢	Lost
Will Venezuela win Miss Universe 2025?	Yes	$1	6.0¢	Lost
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1450.00 and 1474.99 on December 31 2025?	Yes	$75	22.4¢	Won
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$62	26.6¢	Lost
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase March 10-16?	No	$110	3.9¢	Lost
Will CA Platense win on 2026-10-01?	Yes	$46	22.0¢	Won
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-03-22?	Yes	$100	62.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	No	$51	30.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be between 3.1% and 3.3%?	Yes	$86	48.2¢	Lost
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1420.00 and 1439.99 at the end of January 2026?	Yes	$14	24.0¢	Lost
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?	No	$100	49.8¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$411	29.1¢	Lost
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-09-20?	Yes	$41	52.0¢	Won
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-05?	Yes	$72	25.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: CA River Plate 0 - 2 CA Belgrano?	Yes	$21	5.3¢	Lost
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$403	1.9¢	Lost
Will Carabobo FC win on 2026-04-15?	Yes	$20	7.0¢	Lost
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?	No	$740	39.9¢	Lost
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?	No	$147	65.0¢	Lost
Will Peru win Miss Universe 2025?	Yes	$50	3.1¢	Lost
Will Barcelona SC win on 2026-04-14?	Yes	$10	8.0¢	Lost
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-01-23?	Yes	$100	25.0¢	Lost
Maduro out by December 31, 2026?	No	$100	46.0¢	Lost
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?	Yes	$100	66.6¢	Lost
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 2 Winner	9z Team	$669	86.8¢	Won
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2025-11-09?	Yes	$20	41.0¢	Won
Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2025-11-02?	Yes	$121	10.1¢	Won
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$43	41.0¢	Lost
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$31	11.0¢	Lost
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31?	No	$100	65.2¢	Won
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$42	4.9¢	Lost
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$20	45.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or below on March 24?	Yes	$30	38.5¢	Lost

Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-15?Lost
Yes$20 @ 11.0¢
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1500.00 or higher on December 31 2025?Won
No$250 @ 45.3¢
Will Trump say "Tax on Tips" while addressing the nation on December 17?Lost
No$52 @ 40.0¢
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?Won
No$100 @ 64.0¢
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1475.00 and 1499.99 on December 31 2025?Lost
Yes$75 @ 34.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 23?Lost
Yes$30 @ 29.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 24?Lost
Yes$30 @ 32.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on March 23?Lost
Yes$30 @ 31.0¢
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
Yes$74 @ 74.0¢
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in February 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0%?Won
Yes$172 @ 51.4¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$261 @ 87.6¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$172 @ 35.5¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$31 @ 16.0¢
Will Trump say "Eight War" or "Eighth War" while addressing the nation on December 17?Lost
No$60 @ 38.1¢
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Lost
Yes$31 @ 30.0¢
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?Lost
No$31 @ 31.0¢
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$100 @ 63.0¢
Will CA Platense win on 2025-11-08?Lost
Yes$65 @ 19.8¢
Will Venezuela win Miss Universe 2025?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1450.00 and 1474.99 on December 31 2025?Won
Yes$75 @ 22.4¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$62 @ 26.6¢
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase March 10-16?Lost
No$110 @ 3.9¢
Will CA Platense win on 2026-10-01?Won
Yes$46 @ 22.0¢
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-03-22?Won
Yes$100 @ 62.0¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?Lost
No$51 @ 30.0¢
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be between 3.1% and 3.3%?Lost
Yes$86 @ 48.2¢
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1420.00 and 1439.99 at the end of January 2026?Lost
Yes$14 @ 24.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?Lost
No$100 @ 49.8¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$411 @ 29.1¢
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-09-20?Won
Yes$41 @ 52.0¢
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-05?Lost
Yes$72 @ 25.0¢
Exact Score: CA River Plate 0 - 2 CA Belgrano?Lost
Yes$21 @ 5.3¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$403 @ 1.9¢
Will Carabobo FC win on 2026-04-15?Lost
Yes$20 @ 7.0¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$740 @ 39.9¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?Lost
No$147 @ 65.0¢
Will Peru win Miss Universe 2025?Lost
Yes$50 @ 3.1¢
Will Barcelona SC win on 2026-04-14?Lost
Yes$10 @ 8.0¢
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-01-23?Lost
Yes$100 @ 25.0¢
Maduro out by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$100 @ 46.0¢
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?Lost
Yes$100 @ 66.6¢
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 2 WinnerWon
9z Team$669 @ 86.8¢
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2025-11-09?Won
Yes$20 @ 41.0¢
Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2025-11-02?Won
Yes$121 @ 10.1¢
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$43 @ 41.0¢
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?Lost
Yes$31 @ 11.0¢
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31?Won
No$100 @ 65.2¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$42 @ 4.9¢
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to ScoreLost
Yes$20 @ 45.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or below on March 24?Lost
Yes$30 @ 38.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	55.9¢
Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31?	Tech	No	$476	86.6¢
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Politics	No	$469	68.8¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$403	62.2¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Tech	No	$400	60.4¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$400	23.0¢
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$326	60.0¢
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Politics	No	$300	45.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$263	37.0¢
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$122	37.8¢
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$100	12.5¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$100	79.3¢
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	Culture	Yes	$100	27.8¢
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 25% and 29.9%?	Geopolitics	No	$70	77.2¢
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$60	13.0¢
Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$40	1.6¢
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 35% and 39.9%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$30	20.6¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$30	16.7¢
Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$30	0.4¢
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 40% and 44.9%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$20	20.3¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$20	21.5¢
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-15?	Sports	Yes	$20	11.0¢
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$15	4.3¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	65.0¢
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$10	19.4¢
Will Mauricio Macri win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$10	0.7¢
Will Juan Schiaretti win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$10	0.4¢

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 55.9¢
Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31?Tech
No$476 @ 86.6¢
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Politics
No$469 @ 68.8¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$403 @ 62.2¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Tech
No$400 @ 60.4¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$400 @ 23.0¢
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$326 @ 60.0¢
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Politics
No$300 @ 45.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$263 @ 37.0¢
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?Politics
Yes$122 @ 37.8¢
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Politics
Yes$100 @ 12.5¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$100 @ 79.3¢
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Culture
Yes$100 @ 27.8¢
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 25% and 29.9%?Geopolitics
No$70 @ 77.2¢
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$60 @ 13.0¢
Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Politics
Yes$40 @ 1.6¢
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 35% and 39.9%?Geopolitics
Yes$30 @ 20.6¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$30 @ 16.7¢
Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Politics
Yes$30 @ 0.4¢
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 40% and 44.9%?Geopolitics
Yes$20 @ 20.3¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$20 @ 21.5¢
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-15?Sports
Yes$20 @ 11.0¢
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$15 @ 4.3¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 65.0¢
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%?Geopolitics
Yes$10 @ 19.4¢
Will Mauricio Macri win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Politics
Yes$10 @ 0.7¢
Will Juan Schiaretti win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Politics
Yes$10 @ 0.4¢