← Smart money
0x9e98…dade
SharpEdge
+7.5pp
ROI
+44%
Win rate
57% @ 49.8¢
Brier
0.149
Resolved
618
Avg size
$3
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 47% (68/145) | +59% | 145 |
| Crypto | 97% (29/30) | +21% | 30 |
| Politics | 52% (11/21) | +3% | 21 |
| Geopolitics | 50% (1/2) | -81% | 2 |
| Culture | 50% (1/2) | -41% | 2 |
| Tech | 100% (1/1) | +5% | 1 |
- Other145 bets
- Hit rate
- 47% (68/145)
- ROI
- +59%
- Crypto30 bets
- Hit rate
- 97% (29/30)
- ROI
- +21%
- Politics21 bets
- Hit rate
- 52% (11/21)
- ROI
- +3%
- Geopolitics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- -81%
- Culture2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- -41%
- Tech1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +5%
Track record
55% hit · 111/201- No$2 @ 74.0¢
- No$2 @ 72.0¢
- No$10 @ 76.5¢
- No$2 @ 62.0¢
- Yes$6 @ 8.5¢
- No$31 @ 68.3¢
- Yes$3 @ 12.2¢
- No$12 @ 65.1¢
- No$25 @ 55.6¢
- Yes$6 @ 35.3¢
- Yes$5 @ 83.9¢
- Yes$6 @ 7.4¢
- Yes$4 @ 24.0¢
- Yes$22 @ 83.8¢
- No$2 @ 71.0¢
- Yes$3 @ 4.9¢
- Rafael Estevam$5 @ 46.0¢
- No$8 @ 86.2¢
- No$8 @ 25.9¢
- Yes$20 @ 24.9¢
- Yes$5 @ 25.5¢
- Yes$25 @ 14.1¢
- Yes$3 @ 5.1¢
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%?LostYes$2 @ 9.0¢
- No$2 @ 9.0¢
- Flyers$2 @ 42.0¢
- Yes$8 @ 1.6¢
- No$2 @ 80.6¢
- Yes$2 @ 21.7¢
- Yes$2 @ 46.0¢
- Yes$3 @ 1.9¢
- Yes$3 @ 1.5¢
- No$2 @ 46.0¢
- Yes$7 @ 3.2¢
- Yes$2 @ 3.6¢
- Yes$12 @ 69.4¢
- Yes$21 @ 5.1¢
- Yes$3 @ 5.3¢
- Yes$8 @ 10.0¢
- No$2 @ 79.0¢
- No$10 @ 17.4¢
- Yes$5 @ 71.0¢
- Yes$9 @ 2.2¢
- Yes$6 @ 39.4¢
- No$2 @ 86.0¢
- Yes$5 @ 38.0¢
- No$10 @ 86.2¢
- No$10 @ 68.0¢
- No$16 @ 52.1¢
- Yes$10 @ 31.3¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $16 | 60.5¢ |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Politics | Yes | $16 | 33.6¢ |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | Politics | No | $14 | 61.1¢ |
| Will XRP reach $1.80 in September? | Crypto | No | $10 | 84.9¢ |
| Will Solana reach $140 in September? | Crypto | No | $10 | 93.8¢ |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in September? | Crypto | No | $8 | 89.0¢ |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September? | Crypto | No | $4 | 79.5¢ |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Politics | Yes | $4 | 39.4¢ |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $2 | 63.0¢ |
| Will Solana reach $120 in September? | Crypto | No | $2 | 74.0¢ |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Politics | Yes | $2 | 6.7¢ |
- Yes$16 @ 60.5¢
- Yes$16 @ 33.6¢
- No$14 @ 61.1¢
- No$10 @ 84.9¢
- No$10 @ 93.8¢
- No$8 @ 89.0¢
- No$4 @ 79.5¢
- Yes$4 @ 39.4¢
- Yes$2 @ 63.0¢
- No$2 @ 74.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 6.7¢