0x9de3…b489

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x9de3fb3774997d0c3bd12b546cb6449e67dcb489
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+23.9pp

ROI

+280%

Win rate

63% @ 39.6¢

Brier

0.369

Resolved

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	68% (15/22)	+73%	22
Tech	43% (3/7)	+569%	7
Politics	67% (4/6)	+174%	6
Culture	33% (1/3)	-4%	3

Other22 bets
Hit rate
68% (15/22)
ROI
+73%
Tech7 bets
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
ROI
+569%
Politics6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
+174%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-4%

Track record

61% hit · 23/38

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$5	73.0¢	Won
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?	Yes	$16	11.9¢	Lost
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$10	29.0¢	Won
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	$21	12.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1?	Yes	$18	19.4¢	Lost
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	Yes	$10	67.9¢	Won
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	$5	60.0¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	No	$15	17.6¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$5	38.0¢	Won
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$5	74.0¢	Won
Another GTA VI trailer released by September 30?	Yes	$5	62.7¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	Yes	$15	19.0¢	Won
Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 50m?	No	$10	81.0¢	Won
Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	No	$5	77.5¢	Won
Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?	No	$5	61.0¢	Lost
Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 55m and 60m?	Yes	$15	17.0¢	Lost
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31?	Yes	$20	24.4¢	Won
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$10	77.5¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$5	66.0¢	Lost
Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on September 21, 2026?	Yes	$5	70.0¢	Won
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	$15	21.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$30	29.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$20	68.2¢	Lost
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$18	26.4¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?	No	$5	41.0¢	Won
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?	No	$181	11.6¢	Won
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$5	71.5¢	Lost
Will Ricardo Quaresma attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?	No	$6	25.0¢	Won
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	No	$7	20.0¢	Won
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?	No	$5	83.0¢	Won
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 530m and 550m by August 31?	Yes	$5	35.0¢	Lost
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	No	$4	76.0¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$10	6.0¢	Lost
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?	Yes	$5	57.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$5	35.0¢	Won
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	No	$16	20.9¢	Won
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	No	$18	20.0¢	Lost
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	$5	70.0¢	Won

Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 73.0¢
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$16 @ 11.9¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Won
No$10 @ 29.0¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Lost
Yes$21 @ 12.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$18 @ 19.4¢
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 67.9¢
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 60.0¢
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Lost
No$15 @ 17.6¢
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$5 @ 38.0¢
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 74.0¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by September 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 62.7¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Won
Yes$15 @ 19.0¢
Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 50m?Won
No$10 @ 81.0¢
Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?Won
No$5 @ 77.5¢
Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Lost
No$5 @ 61.0¢
Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 55m and 60m?Lost
Yes$15 @ 17.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31?Won
Yes$20 @ 24.4¢
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 77.5¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
No$5 @ 66.0¢
Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on September 21, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 70.0¢
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Won
No$15 @ 21.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Won
No$30 @ 29.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$20 @ 68.2¢
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$18 @ 26.4¢
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?Won
No$5 @ 41.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?Won
No$181 @ 11.6¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 71.5¢
Will Ricardo Quaresma attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?Won
No$6 @ 25.0¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?Won
No$7 @ 20.0¢
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 83.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 530m and 550m by August 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 35.0¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 76.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 6.0¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?Won
Yes$5 @ 57.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 35.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?Won
No$16 @ 20.9¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?Lost
No$18 @ 20.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?Won
Yes$5 @ 70.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$20	10.0¢
Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$20	10.0¢
Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Tech	Yes	$19	30.0¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Tech	Yes	$19	16.4¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$19	9.0¢
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in September 2026 (ET)?	Tech	Yes	$19	9.0¢
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$19	6.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$18	7.5¢
Will Drake release a new album by September 30?	Culture	Yes	$15	13.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$15	18.0¢
Will Chuck Norris be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?	Tech	Yes	$14	30.0¢
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$14	13.0¢
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Economy	No	$14	25.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$13	15.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Tech	No	$10	86.7¢
Will François Hollande advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$10	11.0¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$8	24.0¢
Will Dune: Part Three win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	Yes	$7	25.0¢
Will Tom Holland be the #1 searched actor on Google this year?	Tech	Yes	$7	19.6¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$7	26.0¢
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$5	29.0¢
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?	Tech	No	$5	54.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$5	68.0¢
Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$5	73.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$5	70.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Guam gubernatorial election?	Politics	Yes	$5	68.0¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by September 30?	Culture	Yes	$5	62.7¢
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$5	52.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$5	38.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5	36.0¢

Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$20 @ 10.0¢
Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Tech
Yes$20 @ 10.0¢
Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Tech
Yes$19 @ 30.0¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Tech
Yes$19 @ 16.4¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$19 @ 9.0¢
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in September 2026 (ET)?Tech
Yes$19 @ 9.0¢
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$19 @ 6.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$18 @ 7.5¢
Will Drake release a new album by September 30?Culture
Yes$15 @ 13.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Politics
Yes$15 @ 18.0¢
Will Chuck Norris be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?Tech
Yes$14 @ 30.0¢
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$14 @ 13.0¢
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Economy
No$14 @ 25.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$13 @ 15.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
No$10 @ 86.7¢
Will François Hollande advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?Politics
Yes$10 @ 11.0¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?Tech
Yes$8 @ 24.0¢
Will Dune: Part Three win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
Yes$7 @ 25.0¢
Will Tom Holland be the #1 searched actor on Google this year?Tech
Yes$7 @ 19.6¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$7 @ 26.0¢
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$5 @ 29.0¢
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?Tech
No$5 @ 54.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$5 @ 68.0¢
Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$5 @ 73.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Tech
No$5 @ 70.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Guam gubernatorial election?Politics
Yes$5 @ 68.0¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by September 30?Culture
Yes$5 @ 62.7¢
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$5 @ 52.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$5 @ 38.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$5 @ 36.0¢