0x9cb9…7b80

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x9cb98fc57fe8a3bdf75c3b48bd419e5d262f7b80
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.4pp

ROI

+48%

Win rate

56% @ 43.6¢

Brier

0.202

Resolved

957

Avg size

$53

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	50% (24/48)	+60%	48
Other	55% (24/44)	+42%	44
Sports	57% (4/7)	-27%	7
Geopolitics	67% (2/3)	-25%	3
Tech	50% (1/2)	+15%	2
Crypto	100% (2/2)	+63%	2
Culture	100% (1/1)	+37%	1

Politics48 bets
Hit rate
50% (24/48)
ROI
+60%
Other44 bets
Hit rate
55% (24/44)
ROI
+42%
Sports7 bets
Hit rate
57% (4/7)
ROI
-27%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-25%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+15%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+63%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+37%

Track record

54% hit · 58/107

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	$490	65.3¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.2k	35.0¢	Lost
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$2	0.2¢	Lost
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$500	54.2¢	Won
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	$155	62.0¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$2.0k	62.7¢	Won
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$5	1.3¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	No	$289	72.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 6?	Yes	$23	4.6¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$49	86.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$331	12.8¢	Lost
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?	No	$5	12.0¢	Lost
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?	Yes	$593	86.7¢	Won
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?	No	$124	81.2¢	Won
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	$334	66.9¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	$683	85.4¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	$420	84.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	No	$220	88.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	Yes	$1	4.9¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$343	17.8¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$6	0.8¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$153	87.5¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$422	70.3¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$103	29.3¢	Won
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$31	3.0¢	Lost
Lecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026?	No	$722	61.4¢	Won
Lecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$90	25.5¢	Lost
Will Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?	Yes	$201	85.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	$200	33.3¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$150	60.0¢	Won
Will Bradley Barcola stay at Paris Saint-Germain?	Yes	$76	16.1¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$216	61.7¢	Won
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	$1.5k	75.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$316	89.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$114	54.2¢	Won
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$8.0k	74.9¢	Won
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico?	No	$329	82.5¢	Won
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	$7	0.7¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	$133	26.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 20?	Yes	$7	3.1¢	Lost
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?	Yes	$280	8.1¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?	No	$308	88.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$833	51.2¢	Won
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	$525	35.0¢	Won
No one announced as next James Bond?	Yes	$183	73.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$316	25.3¢	Lost
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	$420	24.5¢	Lost
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	Yes	$228	65.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$3.0k	82.4¢	Won
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	$6	2.9¢	Lost

Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Won
Yes$490 @ 65.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.2k @ 35.0¢
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$500 @ 54.2¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
No$155 @ 62.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 62.7¢
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.3¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Lost
No$289 @ 72.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 6?Lost
Yes$23 @ 4.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$49 @ 86.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$331 @ 12.8¢
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?Lost
No$5 @ 12.0¢
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?Won
Yes$593 @ 86.7¢
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?Won
No$124 @ 81.2¢
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?Lost
Yes$334 @ 66.9¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$683 @ 85.4¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?Won
No$420 @ 84.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Won
No$220 @ 88.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.9¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$343 @ 17.8¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.8¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$153 @ 87.5¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$422 @ 70.3¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$103 @ 29.3¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$31 @ 3.0¢
Lecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026?Won
No$722 @ 61.4¢
Lecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$90 @ 25.5¢
Will Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?Lost
Yes$201 @ 85.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$200 @ 33.3¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
Yes$150 @ 60.0¢
Will Bradley Barcola stay at Paris Saint-Germain?Lost
Yes$76 @ 16.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$216 @ 61.7¢
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?Won
No$1.5k @ 75.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$316 @ 89.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$114 @ 54.2¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$8.0k @ 74.9¢
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico?Won
No$329 @ 82.5¢
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Lost
Yes$7 @ 0.7¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
No$133 @ 26.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 20?Lost
Yes$7 @ 3.1¢
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?Lost
Yes$280 @ 8.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?Won
No$308 @ 88.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$833 @ 51.2¢
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Won
Yes$525 @ 35.0¢
No one announced as next James Bond?Won
Yes$183 @ 73.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$316 @ 25.3¢
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Lost
Yes$420 @ 24.5¢
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Won
Yes$228 @ 65.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$3.0k @ 82.4¢
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Lost
Yes$6 @ 2.9¢

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