0x9b77…53cd

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x9b7793998ecf92bfa3c6b6c3e18a69a1ec7053cd
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+14.3pp

ROI

+40%

Win rate

57% @ 42.8¢

Brier

0.061

Resolved

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	45% (5/11)	+40%	11
Geopolitics	80% (4/5)	-1%	5
Other	100% (4/4)	+30%	4
Business	100% (1/1)	+28%	1

Politics11 bets
Hit rate
45% (5/11)
ROI
+40%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
80% (4/5)
ROI
-1%
Other4 bets
Hit rate
100% (4/4)
ROI
+30%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+28%

Track record

67% hit · 14/21

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?	Yes	$3	69.0¢	Won
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by September 30?	Yes	$10	6.7¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	$177	95.3¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?	No	$12	62.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	No	$23	78.0¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	No	$210	99.7¢	Won
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	No	$21	82.5¢	Won
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	Yes	$20	15.7¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$36	83.8¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in September?	Yes	$21	72.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$3	4.0¢	Lost
Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?	Yes	$1	2.3¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September?	Yes	$35	83.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.7¢	Lost
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$3	35.7¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	Yes	$8	2.9¢	Lost
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	No	$5	86.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Yes	$128	55.3¢	Won
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026?	Yes	$15	87.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$25	84.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$26	89.0¢	Won

Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?Won
Yes$3 @ 69.0¢
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by September 30?Lost
Yes$10 @ 6.7¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?Won
No$177 @ 95.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?Won
No$12 @ 62.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Won
No$23 @ 78.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?Won
No$210 @ 99.7¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?Won
No$21 @ 82.5¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?Lost
Yes$20 @ 15.7¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$36 @ 83.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in September?Won
Yes$21 @ 72.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 4.0¢
Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September?Won
Yes$35 @ 83.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.7¢
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 35.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 2.9¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?Won
No$5 @ 86.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Won
Yes$128 @ 55.3¢
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026?Won
Yes$15 @ 87.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$25 @ 84.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$26 @ 89.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$579	84.5¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$483	86.8¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	No	$326	98.6¢
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	Politics	No	$194	92.5¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?	Culture	No	$104	89.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	No	$71	81.0¢
Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Tech	No	$55	93.3¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$50	24.9¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	No	$46	66.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$41	45.0¢
Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Tech	No	$27	63.0¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$19	17.5¢
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$18	11.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Politics	Yes	$17	38.1¢
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	Crypto	No	$15	18.9¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$12	34.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$10	1.4¢
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$10	14.7¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$8	29.5¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$7	19.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$7	4.3¢
Will USD be less than 2.0M Iranian rials on December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$4	16.4¢
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Economy	No	$4	25.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$4	34.6¢
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$4	27.0¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?	Culture	No	$3	64.0¢
Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3	6.8¢
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?	Economy	No	$3	22.5¢
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$3	23.0¢
Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$2	31.0¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$579 @ 84.5¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Geopolitics
No$483 @ 86.8¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
No$326 @ 98.6¢
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?Politics
No$194 @ 92.5¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?Culture
No$104 @ 89.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
No$71 @ 81.0¢
Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Tech
No$55 @ 93.3¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$50 @ 24.9¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
No$46 @ 66.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$41 @ 45.0¢
Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Tech
No$27 @ 63.0¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$19 @ 17.5¢
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?Politics
Yes$18 @ 11.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Politics
Yes$17 @ 38.1¢
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?Crypto
No$15 @ 18.9¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Tech
No$12 @ 34.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
Yes$10 @ 1.4¢
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$10 @ 14.7¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$8 @ 29.5¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$7 @ 19.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics
Yes$7 @ 4.3¢
Will USD be less than 2.0M Iranian rials on December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$4 @ 16.4¢
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Economy
No$4 @ 25.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$4 @ 34.6¢
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$4 @ 27.0¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?Culture
No$3 @ 64.0¢
Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$3 @ 6.8¢
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?Economy
No$3 @ 22.5¢
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Tech
Yes$3 @ 23.0¢
Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?Geopolitics
No$2 @ 31.0¢