0x9876…1e66

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x987645e78d6b3ed01d69289a5fd4b140bea71e66
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.0pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

82% @ 76.8¢

Brier

0.150

Resolved

472

Avg size

$298

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	74% (29/39)	+18%	39
Politics	63% (24/38)	-7%	38
Geopolitics	80% (8/10)	+11%	10
Tech	100% (2/2)	+19%	2
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other39 bets
Hit rate
74% (29/39)
ROI
+18%
Politics38 bets
Hit rate
63% (24/38)
ROI
-7%
Geopolitics10 bets
Hit rate
80% (8/10)
ROI
+11%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+19%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

70% hit · 63/90

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$420	84.0¢	Lost
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	No	$17	60.1¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$4.8k	79.3¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$435	87.1¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	Yes	$700	70.0¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$176	88.0¢	Lost
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	$405	81.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$3.5k	63.4¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$835	83.5¢	Won
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?	Yes	$6.1k	85.4¢	Won
Over $30M committed to the Ranger public sale?	No	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?	No	$10	8.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	No	$890	89.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$302	60.3¢	Won
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	No	$427	85.4¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	$6.3k	85.5¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	$668	83.5¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	$430	86.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$830	83.0¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	$365	88.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	$1.2k	84.1¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$116	57.2¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	No	$8.7k	86.8¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$2.6k	76.0¢	Won
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?	No	$435	87.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$380	38.0¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$1.3k	83.7¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	$105	15.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	$408	80.1¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	No	$445	89.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	Yes	$370	74.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$716	71.6¢	Won
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$2.1k	82.8¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$1.2k	79.3¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	No	$33.7k	86.5¢	Won
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$420	84.0¢	Won
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$2.7k	87.7¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	$425	85.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	No	$3.9k	87.3¢	Won
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	No	$435	87.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$810	81.0¢	Won
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	$95	47.4¢	Lost
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	$425	85.0¢	Won
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	$98	89.4¢	Won
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	$504	82.4¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	Yes	$566	89.5¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$2.6k	85.4¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?	No	$880	88.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$405	81.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.6k	80.7¢	Lost

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$420 @ 84.0¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Won
No$17 @ 60.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$4.8k @ 79.3¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$435 @ 87.1¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Won
Yes$700 @ 70.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$176 @ 88.0¢
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$405 @ 81.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$3.5k @ 63.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$835 @ 83.5¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?Won
Yes$6.1k @ 85.4¢
Over $30M committed to the Ranger public sale?Lost
No$1 @ 1.0¢
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?Lost
No$10 @ 8.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?Won
No$890 @ 89.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$302 @ 60.3¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$427 @ 85.4¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
No$6.3k @ 85.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Won
No$668 @ 83.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Lost
No$430 @ 86.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$830 @ 83.0¢
Iran leadership change by March 13?Won
No$365 @ 88.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Won
No$1.2k @ 84.1¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$116 @ 57.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Won
No$8.7k @ 86.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
No$2.6k @ 76.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?Won
No$435 @ 87.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$380 @ 38.0¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$1.3k @ 83.7¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Lost
No$105 @ 15.0¢
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?Lost
Yes$408 @ 80.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Won
No$445 @ 89.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$370 @ 74.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$716 @ 71.6¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$2.1k @ 82.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$1.2k @ 79.3¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Won
No$33.7k @ 86.5¢
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?Won
Yes$420 @ 84.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$2.7k @ 87.7¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Won
Yes$425 @ 85.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?Won
No$3.9k @ 87.3¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?Won
No$435 @ 87.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$810 @ 81.0¢
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Lost
No$95 @ 47.4¢
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Won
Yes$425 @ 85.0¢
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Won
Yes$98 @ 89.4¢
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?Lost
Yes$504 @ 82.4¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Won
Yes$566 @ 89.5¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
No$2.6k @ 85.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?Won
No$880 @ 88.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$405 @ 81.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.6k @ 80.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$925	92.5¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Politics	No	$890	89.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$270	86.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	Politics	No	$258	86.0¢

Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Geopolitics
No$925 @ 92.5¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Politics
No$890 @ 89.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$270 @ 86.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Politics
No$258 @ 86.0¢