← Smart money
0x96b5…f5e7
SharpEdge
+12.3pp
ROI
+15%
Win rate
77% @ 65.1¢
Brier
0.054
Resolved
62
Avg size
$2.4k
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 50% (3/6) | -52% | 6 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (3/3) | +16% | 3 |
| Tech | 0% (0/2) | -100% | 2 |
| Politics | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
| Crypto | 100% (1/1) | +135% | 1 |
- Other6 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (3/6)
- ROI
- -52%
- Geopolitics3 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (3/3)
- ROI
- +16%
- Tech2 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/2)
- ROI
- -100%
- Politics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
- Crypto1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +135%
Track record
54% hit · 7/13| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | $59.8k | 84.3¢ | Won |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | No | $850 | 42.5¢ | Won |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | No | $17.8k | 89.0¢ | Won |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | No | $66.0k | 88.0¢ | Won |
| Will Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? | Yes | $195 | 65.0¢ | Lost |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | Yes | $5 | 0.1¢ | Lost |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | $1.5k | 5.0¢ | Lost |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? | Yes | $120 | 40.0¢ | Won |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m? | Yes | $135 | 67.7¢ | Won |
| Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? | No | $1.7k | 87.2¢ | Won |
| Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? | Yes | $3.0k | 8.7¢ | Lost |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | $12 | 3.0¢ | Lost |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | $12 | 3.0¢ | Lost |
- No$59.8k @ 84.3¢
- No$850 @ 42.5¢
- No$17.8k @ 89.0¢
- No$66.0k @ 88.0¢
- Yes$195 @ 65.0¢
- Yes$5 @ 0.1¢
- Yes$1.5k @ 5.0¢
- Yes$120 @ 40.0¢
- Yes$135 @ 67.7¢
- No$1.7k @ 87.2¢
- Yes$3.0k @ 8.7¢
- Yes$12 @ 3.0¢
- Yes$12 @ 3.0¢
Recent trades
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