0x95d5…08bc

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x95d5609631fd172f1447352a951be977384908bc
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.1pp

ROI

+9%

Win rate

53% @ 45.2¢

Brier

0.181

Resolved

195

Avg size

$98

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	58% (14/24)	+13%	24
Politics	86% (19/22)	-1%	22
Geopolitics	79% (11/14)	+11%	14
Tech	100% (4/4)	+3%	4
Crypto	33% (1/3)	-5%	3
Sports	100% (2/2)	+6%	2

Other24 bets
Hit rate
58% (14/24)
ROI
+13%
Politics22 bets
Hit rate
86% (19/22)
ROI
-1%
Geopolitics14 bets
Hit rate
79% (11/14)
ROI
+11%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
100% (4/4)
ROI
+3%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-5%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+6%

Track record

74% hit · 51/69

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	$6.7k	91.0¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	No	$93	17.1¢	Lost
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	Yes	$4	0.3¢	Lost
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	$483	63.4¢	Won
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?	Yes	$1.1k	85.6¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$54	27.0¢	Lost
Over $15M committed to the Gensyn public sale?	Yes	$326	49.5¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	No	$138	69.0¢	Won
Will TIME's Person of the Year for 2025 be a woman?	Yes	$761	48.7¢	Lost
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	$290	72.2¢	Lost
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$1.2k	82.2¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	No	$212	89.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$90	89.9¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 13, 2026?	No	$126	84.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	$72	59.0¢	Won
USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	$486	11.0¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No	$19	84.0¢	Won
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?	Yes	$64	1.7¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	No	$71	83.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$77	25.0¢	Lost
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?	Yes	$473	50.0¢	Lost
US national Ethereum reserve in 2025?	Yes	$500	34.6¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$832	69.3¢	Won
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?	No	$420	84.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	$89	89.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	No	$287	75.9¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?	No	$478	6.5¢	Lost
Will Moldova be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	$33	79.0¢	Won
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?	Yes	$300	18.4¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?	Yes	$498	45.0¢	Won
US national XRP reserve in 2025?	Yes	$1000	51.9¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	$6	3.2¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	No	$5	96.0¢	Won
Will $LAPTOP reach $3.50 by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$56	51.0¢	Lost
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	$1.4k	74.9¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	$16	16.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?	No	$427	99.5¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	$488	97.6¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	No	$957	97.7¢	Won
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$924	92.4¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 24, 2026?	No	$491	98.2¢	Won
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?	No	$107	99.2¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$490	83.0¢	Won
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$1000	96.7¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	No	$34	95.9¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?	No	$95	98.6¢	Won
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$660	66.0¢	Lost
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	No	$89	89.0¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	No	$23	99.7¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$1.5k	76.0¢	Won

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Won
No$6.7k @ 91.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Lost
No$93 @ 17.1¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.3¢
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?Won
Yes$483 @ 63.4¢
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 85.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$54 @ 27.0¢
Over $15M committed to the Gensyn public sale?Won
Yes$326 @ 49.5¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?Won
No$138 @ 69.0¢
Will TIME's Person of the Year for 2025 be a woman?Lost
Yes$761 @ 48.7¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
No$290 @ 72.2¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$1.2k @ 82.2¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Won
No$212 @ 89.0¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$90 @ 89.9¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 13, 2026?Won
No$126 @ 84.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?Won
No$72 @ 59.0¢
USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch?Won
Yes$486 @ 11.0¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Won
No$19 @ 84.0¢
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?Lost
Yes$64 @ 1.7¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?Won
No$71 @ 83.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$77 @ 25.0¢
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?Lost
Yes$473 @ 50.0¢
US national Ethereum reserve in 2025?Lost
Yes$500 @ 34.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$832 @ 69.3¢
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?Won
No$420 @ 84.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Won
No$89 @ 89.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Won
No$287 @ 75.9¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?Lost
No$478 @ 6.5¢
Will Moldova be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?Won
No$33 @ 79.0¢
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?Lost
Yes$300 @ 18.4¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?Won
Yes$498 @ 45.0¢
US national XRP reserve in 2025?Lost
Yes$1000 @ 51.9¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?Lost
Yes$6 @ 3.2¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?Won
No$5 @ 96.0¢
Will $LAPTOP reach $3.50 by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$56 @ 51.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 74.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Lost
No$16 @ 16.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?Won
No$427 @ 99.5¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Won
No$488 @ 97.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?Won
No$957 @ 97.7¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$924 @ 92.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 24, 2026?Won
No$491 @ 98.2¢
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?Won
No$107 @ 99.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$490 @ 83.0¢
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$1000 @ 96.7¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Won
No$34 @ 95.9¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?Won
No$95 @ 98.6¢
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$660 @ 66.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?Won
No$89 @ 89.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Won
No$23 @ 99.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$1.5k @ 76.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Culture	No	$10.1k	98.7¢
Will Iran legalize gay marriage?	Politics	No	$3.4k	98.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Politics	No	$885	88.5¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Politics	No	$493	95.8¢
Iran nuclear test before 2027?	Politics	No	$460	92.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$415	83.0¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$395	11.8¢
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$51	81.0¢

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?Culture
No$10.1k @ 98.7¢
Will Iran legalize gay marriage?Politics
No$3.4k @ 98.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?Politics
No$885 @ 88.5¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics
No$493 @ 95.8¢
Iran nuclear test before 2027?Politics
No$460 @ 92.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$415 @ 83.0¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$395 @ 11.8¢
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$51 @ 81.0¢