0x9592…a7b8

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x9592adb70397e9de67ba9abe6971e3f50fb7a7b8
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-2.3pp

ROI

+7%

Win rate

11% @ 13.4¢

Brier

0.064

Resolved

4740

Avg size

$77

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	14% (12/88)	-56%	88
Other	34% (28/83)	+82%	83
Geopolitics	31% (24/77)	-84%	77
Sports	38% (5/13)	+56%	13
Tech	50% (6/12)	-79%	12
Economy	100% (1/1)	+26%	1

Politics88 bets
Hit rate
14% (12/88)
ROI
-56%
Other83 bets
Hit rate
34% (28/83)
ROI
+82%
Geopolitics77 bets
Hit rate
31% (24/77)
ROI
-84%
Sports13 bets
Hit rate
38% (5/13)
ROI
+56%
Tech12 bets
Hit rate
50% (6/12)
ROI
-79%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+26%

Track record

28% hit · 76/274

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Zach LaVine play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27?	Yes	$22	89.4¢	Lost
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$138	20.0¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	No	$425	85.0¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$67	10.0¢	Lost
Will Iran target Iraq by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$33	76.4¢	Won
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?	Yes	$221	17.0¢	Lost
Will Iran target Iraq by November 15, 2026?	Yes	$71	85.8¢	Won
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$7	2.8¢	Lost
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	$431	2.2¢	Lost
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?	Yes	$88	3.9¢	Lost
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	$104	5.5¢	Lost
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?	Yes	$33	16.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	$2.3k	77.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$333	37.0¢	Lost
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$50	87.0¢	Lost
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	$143	15.9¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	$99	20.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in October?	Yes	$35	1.8¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?	Yes	$220	11.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in October?	Yes	$3	0.9¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	$19	18.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October?	Yes	$50	7.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	Yes	$50	29.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	No	$769	33.1¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	$141	54.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October?	Yes	$58	25.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	No	$95	8.0¢	Lost
Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?	Yes	$183	37.9¢	Won
Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in October 2026?	Yes	$18	26.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$23	34.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	$210	7.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	$2	13.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in October?	No	$4	15.6¢	Lost
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	$1	6.3¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	$884	9.8¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	No	$748	8.3¢	Lost
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 19?	Yes	$199	96.0¢	Won
NBA: LeBron James and Bronny James Jr. to Play Together in 2026-27?	Yes	$144	28.3¢	Lost
Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$85	69.2¢	Won
Will Iran target an Arab country by October 22, 2026?	Yes	$24	47.0¢	Won
Will Iran target Iraq by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$66	69.0¢	Won
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	$1	3.2¢	Lost
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	$2	4.1¢	Lost
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	$33	10.3¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?	No	$58	12.8¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?	Yes	$127	25.0¢	Won
NATO downs another Russian drone by October 31?	Yes	$3	34.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	No	$154	4.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	No	$224	8.1¢	Lost

Will Zach LaVine play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$22 @ 89.4¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$138 @ 20.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?Won
No$425 @ 85.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$67 @ 10.0¢
Will Iran target Iraq by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$33 @ 76.4¢
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?Lost
Yes$221 @ 17.0¢
Will Iran target Iraq by November 15, 2026?Won
Yes$71 @ 85.8¢
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 2.8¢
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?Lost
Yes$431 @ 2.2¢
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?Lost
Yes$88 @ 3.9¢
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?Lost
Yes$104 @ 5.5¢
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?Lost
Yes$33 @ 16.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Won
No$2.3k @ 77.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$333 @ 37.0¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 87.0¢
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?Lost
No$143 @ 15.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?Lost
No$99 @ 20.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in October?Lost
Yes$35 @ 1.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?Lost
Yes$220 @ 11.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in October?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?Lost
Yes$19 @ 18.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October?Lost
Yes$50 @ 7.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?Lost
Yes$50 @ 29.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?Won
No$769 @ 33.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?Lost
No$141 @ 54.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October?Lost
Yes$58 @ 25.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?Lost
No$95 @ 8.0¢
Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?Won
Yes$183 @ 37.9¢
Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in October 2026?Lost
Yes$18 @ 26.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$23 @ 34.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Lost
No$210 @ 7.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Lost
No$2 @ 13.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in October?Lost
No$4 @ 15.6¢
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?Lost
No$1 @ 6.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Lost
No$884 @ 9.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?Lost
No$748 @ 8.3¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 19?Won
Yes$199 @ 96.0¢
NBA: LeBron James and Bronny James Jr. to Play Together in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$144 @ 28.3¢
Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$85 @ 69.2¢
Will Iran target an Arab country by October 22, 2026?Won
Yes$24 @ 47.0¢
Will Iran target Iraq by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$66 @ 69.0¢
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.2¢
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.1¢
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?Lost
No$33 @ 10.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?Lost
No$58 @ 12.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?Won
Yes$127 @ 25.0¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by October 31?Won
Yes$3 @ 34.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?Lost
No$154 @ 4.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?Lost
No$224 @ 8.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$35.2k	16.1¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$14.2k	6.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Politics	No	$6.2k	20.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Politics	No	$4.2k	55.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$3.9k	13.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$3.2k	35.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Geopolitics	No	$2.9k	32.9¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$2.8k	10.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Politics	No	$2.8k	41.4¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.6k	13.1¢
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Politics	No	$1.3k	24.0¢
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$707	8.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Geopolitics	No	$651	28.1¢
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$630	9.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Politics	No	$587	29.4¢
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$550	38.4¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Politics	Yes	$433	22.5¢
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	Politics	Yes	$392	57.5¢
NATO article 5 before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$362	9.1¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$337	13.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$321	17.3¢
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$256	6.0¢
Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$244	20.5¢
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$205	13.5¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$168	5.8¢
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$168	24.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$167	6.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$154	8.0¢
Israel military action against Syria by November 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$122	36.3¢
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$110	11.0¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$35.2k @ 16.1¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$14.2k @ 6.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
No$6.2k @ 20.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Politics
No$4.2k @ 55.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
No$3.9k @ 13.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Geopolitics
No$3.2k @ 35.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Geopolitics
No$2.9k @ 32.9¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$2.8k @ 10.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Politics
No$2.8k @ 41.4¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Politics
Yes$1.6k @ 13.1¢
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Politics
No$1.3k @ 24.0¢
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$707 @ 8.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Geopolitics
No$651 @ 28.1¢
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Politics
Yes$630 @ 9.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Politics
No$587 @ 29.4¢
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?Politics
Yes$550 @ 38.4¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
Yes$433 @ 22.5¢
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?Politics
Yes$392 @ 57.5¢
NATO article 5 before 2027?Politics
Yes$362 @ 9.1¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$337 @ 13.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
Yes$321 @ 17.3¢
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?Politics
Yes$256 @ 6.0¢
Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$244 @ 20.5¢
US strike on Mexico by December 31?Politics
Yes$205 @ 13.5¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
Yes$168 @ 5.8¢
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?Politics
Yes$168 @ 24.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$167 @ 6.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
Yes$154 @ 8.0¢
Israel military action against Syria by November 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$122 @ 36.3¢
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$110 @ 11.0¢