0x93fb…3e4a

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x93fb8127a1b21a112b11af936361225df0563e4a
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+27.4pp

ROI

+75%

Win rate

53% @ 25.2¢

Brier

0.285

Resolved

4608

Avg size

$219

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	33% (25/75)	+33%	75
Sports	38% (13/34)	+71%	34
Politics	31% (8/26)	+1%	26
Geopolitics	29% (4/14)	+338%	14
Crypto	0% (0/5)	-100%	5

Other75 bets
Hit rate
33% (25/75)
ROI
+33%
Sports34 bets
Hit rate
38% (13/34)
ROI
+71%
Politics26 bets
Hit rate
31% (8/26)
ROI
+1%
Geopolitics14 bets
Hit rate
29% (4/14)
ROI
+338%
Crypto5 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/5)
ROI
-100%

Track record

32% hit · 50/154

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Julian Alvarez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$4	1.1¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	Yes	$1.1k	2.1¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026?	Yes	$25	1.8¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Yes	$8.3k	17.6¢	Lost
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$1.2k	46.0¢	Lost
Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?	Yes	$11	15.0¢	Lost
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$1.1k	8.5¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?	Yes	$3.1k	2.8¢	Lost
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	$20.1k	9.3¢	Lost
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19?	Yes	$675	27.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	Yes	$20.0k	19.5¢	Won
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in June?	Yes	$234	5.0¢	Lost
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $480 in June?	Yes	$775	5.1¢	Lost
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	$3.4k	32.9¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$66	13.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$3.1k	12.5¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$34	14.0¢	Lost
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$599	6.3¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	Yes	$8.3k	4.4¢	Lost
Will Poland win on 2026-03-26?	Yes	$600	24.0¢	Won
Will Senegal win on 2026-03-28?	Yes	$3.3k	65.5¢	Won
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?	Yes	$900	22.5¢	Lost
Spread: France (-1.5)	France	$2.3k	35.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$406	6.0¢	Lost
Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$38	0.2¢	Lost
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	Yes	$554	14.0¢	Lost
Trump out as President by April 30?	Yes	$176	1.5¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	Yes	$8.3k	68.8¢	Won
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$2.0k	39.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$15.5k	65.4¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$13.7k	66.9¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$12.2k	24.0¢	Lost
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$275	22.0¢	Won
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by April 30?	Yes	$410	17.2¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$6.5k	21.6¢	Lost
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-03-31?	Yes	$162	13.0¢	Lost
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$433	34.0¢	Lost
Brazil vs. France: O/U 2.5	Over	$1.2k	48.0¢	Won
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?	Yes	$3.6k	45.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	$10.3k	82.0¢	Won
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$8.5k	11.2¢	Lost
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)	Ecuador	$1.0k	40.0¢	Lost
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.1k	2.2¢	Lost
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $330 in June?	Yes	$48	5.9¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	No	$3.2k	12.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$24.8k	49.2¢	Won
Spread: Senegal (-2.5)	Senegal	$2.3k	35.4¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	$8.0k	9.1¢	Won
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$982	26.9¢	Lost
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-12?	Yes	$330	33.0¢	Won

Will Julian Alvarez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
Yes$4 @ 1.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 2.1¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$25 @ 1.8¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Lost
Yes$8.3k @ 17.6¢
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 46.0¢
Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?Lost
Yes$11 @ 15.0¢
Will France strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 8.5¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?Lost
Yes$3.1k @ 2.8¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$20.1k @ 9.3¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19?Lost
Yes$675 @ 27.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Won
Yes$20.0k @ 19.5¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in June?Lost
Yes$234 @ 5.0¢
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $480 in June?Lost
Yes$775 @ 5.1¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Lost
Yes$3.4k @ 32.9¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$66 @ 13.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$3.1k @ 12.5¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$34 @ 14.0¢
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$599 @ 6.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?Lost
Yes$8.3k @ 4.4¢
Will Poland win on 2026-03-26?Won
Yes$600 @ 24.0¢
Will Senegal win on 2026-03-28?Won
Yes$3.3k @ 65.5¢
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?Lost
Yes$900 @ 22.5¢
Spread: France (-1.5)Won
France$2.3k @ 35.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$406 @ 6.0¢
Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
Yes$38 @ 0.2¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$554 @ 14.0¢
Trump out as President by April 30?Lost
Yes$176 @ 1.5¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Won
Yes$8.3k @ 68.8¢
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$2.0k @ 39.0¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$15.5k @ 65.4¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$13.7k @ 66.9¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$12.2k @ 24.0¢
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$275 @ 22.0¢
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by April 30?Lost
Yes$410 @ 17.2¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$6.5k @ 21.6¢
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-03-31?Lost
Yes$162 @ 13.0¢
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$433 @ 34.0¢
Brazil vs. France: O/U 2.5Won
Over$1.2k @ 48.0¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?Lost
Yes$3.6k @ 45.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Won
No$10.3k @ 82.0¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$8.5k @ 11.2¢
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)Lost
Ecuador$1.0k @ 40.0¢
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 2.2¢
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $330 in June?Lost
Yes$48 @ 5.9¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?Won
No$3.2k @ 12.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
No$24.8k @ 49.2¢
Spread: Senegal (-2.5)Won
Senegal$2.3k @ 35.4¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?Won
No$8.0k @ 9.1¢
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$982 @ 26.9¢
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-12?Won
Yes$330 @ 33.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	No	$160.2k	65.2¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$118.4k	39.4¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$100.1k	21.0¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	Yes	$95.5k	31.5¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$70.7k	24.8¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$47.1k	22.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$42.6k	21.3¢
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	Yes	$41.1k	11.0¢
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$24.8k	10.8¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$20.7k	16.8¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$17.0k	30.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$16.5k	26.6¢
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$9.8k	13.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$9.2k	35.9¢
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$9.1k	7.3¢
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?	Politics	Yes	$7.6k	62.0¢
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	Yes	$7.4k	6.7¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026?	Other	Yes	$4.2k	50.0¢
NATO article 5 before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$4.0k	14.0¢
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$3.5k	20.6¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$3.3k	37.7¢
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$2.8k	24.9¢
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$1.7k	3.3¢
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$751	8.4¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$677	19.4¢
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?	Science	Yes	$634	74.7¢
X banned in any European country by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$523	21.2¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$463	7.0¢
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$437	16.0¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 8,000 in 2026?	Other	Yes	$146	24.8¢

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
No$160.2k @ 65.2¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$118.4k @ 39.4¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
Yes$100.1k @ 21.0¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
Yes$95.5k @ 31.5¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$70.7k @ 24.8¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$47.1k @ 22.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$42.6k @ 21.3¢
China x Japan military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
Yes$41.1k @ 11.0¢
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$24.8k @ 10.8¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics
Yes$20.7k @ 16.8¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$17.0k @ 30.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$16.5k @ 26.6¢
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Politics
Yes$9.8k @ 13.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$9.2k @ 35.9¢
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$9.1k @ 7.3¢
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?Politics
Yes$7.6k @ 62.0¢
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
Yes$7.4k @ 6.7¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026?Other
Yes$4.2k @ 50.0¢
NATO article 5 before 2027?Politics
Yes$4.0k @ 14.0¢
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?Politics
Yes$3.5k @ 20.6¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$3.3k @ 37.7¢
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$2.8k @ 24.9¢
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$1.7k @ 3.3¢
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$751 @ 8.4¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$677 @ 19.4¢
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?Science
Yes$634 @ 74.7¢
X banned in any European country by December 31?Politics
Yes$523 @ 21.2¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$463 @ 7.0¢
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$437 @ 16.0¢
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 8,000 in 2026?Other
Yes$146 @ 24.8¢