0x92e5…efee

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x92e53057ef2872722a53fe807245bd387e1defee
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.9pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

55% @ 49.3¢

Brier

0.174

Resolved

881

Avg size

$133

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	39% (20/51)	+15%	51
Other	31% (11/36)	+9%	36
Tech	83% (5/6)	-16%	6
Crypto	60% (3/5)	+28%	5
Geopolitics	33% (1/3)	-85%	3
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+14%	1

Politics51 bets
Hit rate
39% (20/51)
ROI
+15%
Other36 bets
Hit rate
31% (11/36)
ROI
+9%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
83% (5/6)
ROI
-16%
Crypto5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
+28%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-85%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+14%

Track record

40% hit · 41/103

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$889	80.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$6.9k	25.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$44	39.5¢	Lost
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	No	$957	85.1¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$195	44.0¢	Lost
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	No	$222	20.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$1.4k	16.4¢	Lost
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?	No	$0	86.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$811	73.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$711	18.3¢	Lost
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$4.8k	48.3¢	Lost
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$222	66.0¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$20.7k	71.8¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$363	16.3¢	Lost
Spread: Knicks (-10.5)	76ers	$544	49.0¢	Won
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?	Yes	$419	66.4¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$944	85.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$520	9.4¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$461	83.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$444	40.0¢	Lost
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	$1.2k	25.0¢	Lost
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	$482	52.2¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Yes	$20	33.0¢	Won
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	No	$113	51.0¢	Lost
James Comey arrested by April 29?	Yes	$120	12.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$4.4k	29.8¢	Lost
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$24	22.0¢	Won
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	$680	87.6¢	Won
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$33	6.0¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	$3.0k	51.8¢	Won
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	$1.4k	21.8¢	Lost
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?	No	$48	87.5¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	$4	16.1¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	$5	0.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$10.5k	50.5¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	$1.2k	27.2¢	Lost
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.4k	30.6¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$10	0.3¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	Yes	$774	84.5¢	Won
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	No	$678	61.0¢	Won
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	$346	6.0¢	Lost
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)	Thunder	$1.1k	49.0¢	Won
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	$16	7.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.9k	78.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$583	52.5¢	Won
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?	Yes	$17	78.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	$91	35.1¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.3k	55.2¢	Won
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	$255	60.5¢	Lost
Jimmy Lai released by June 30?	Yes	$5	4.7¢	Lost

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$889 @ 80.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$6.9k @ 25.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$44 @ 39.5¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Won
No$957 @ 85.1¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$195 @ 44.0¢
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionWon
No$222 @ 20.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 16.4¢
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?Won
No$0 @ 86.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$811 @ 73.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$711 @ 18.3¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$4.8k @ 48.3¢
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?Lost
Yes$222 @ 66.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$20.7k @ 71.8¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$363 @ 16.3¢
Spread: Knicks (-10.5)Won
76ers$544 @ 49.0¢
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?Won
Yes$419 @ 66.4¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
No$944 @ 85.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$520 @ 9.4¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$461 @ 83.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$444 @ 40.0¢
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 25.0¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
No$482 @ 52.2¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
Yes$20 @ 33.0¢
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?Lost
No$113 @ 51.0¢
James Comey arrested by April 29?Won
Yes$120 @ 12.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$4.4k @ 29.8¢
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$24 @ 22.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Won
No$680 @ 87.6¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$33 @ 6.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Won
Yes$3.0k @ 51.8¢
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Lost
No$1.4k @ 21.8¢
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?Won
No$48 @ 87.5¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Lost
Yes$4 @ 16.1¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$10.5k @ 50.5¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Lost
No$1.2k @ 27.2¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 30.6¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.3¢
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?Won
Yes$774 @ 84.5¢
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Won
No$678 @ 61.0¢
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Lost
Yes$346 @ 6.0¢
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Won
Thunder$1.1k @ 49.0¢
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Lost
No$16 @ 7.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.9k @ 78.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$583 @ 52.5¢
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?Won
Yes$17 @ 78.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$91 @ 35.1¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 55.2¢
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?Lost
No$255 @ 60.5¢
Jimmy Lai released by June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 4.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Politics	No	$9.4k	69.3¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	No	$7.8k	60.7¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$6.5k	83.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Geopolitics	Yes	$6.2k	25.7¢
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Politics	No	$4.4k	89.7¢
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$4.3k	82.6¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	No	$3.5k	90.6¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$2.7k	68.9¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$2.4k	41.9¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$2.1k	95.6¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?	—	No	$2.1k	94.0¢
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Politics	Yes	$2.1k	93.0¢
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Politics	No	$2.0k	75.7¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$1.9k	84.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Politics	No	$1.9k	84.0¢
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?	Politics	Yes	$1.8k	82.0¢
Weed rescheduled by June 30?	Politics	No	$1.7k	78.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.7k	70.1¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Politics	No	$1.7k	75.1¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$1.4k	60.6¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.4k	83.8¢
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	91.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$1.2k	76.1¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1.0k	42.6¢
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?	Politics	Yes	$1000	45.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Politics	No	$989	29.7¢
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Culture	Yes	$820	42.0¢
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?	Politics	Yes	$811	73.0¢
Epstein client list released by June 30?	Politics	No	$777	87.5¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	No	$745	43.4¢

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Politics
No$9.4k @ 69.3¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
No$7.8k @ 60.7¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$6.5k @ 83.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
Yes$6.2k @ 25.7¢
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?Politics
No$4.4k @ 89.7¢
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Politics
Yes$4.3k @ 82.6¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
No$3.5k @ 90.6¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$2.7k @ 68.9¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics
Yes$2.4k @ 41.9¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?Politics
No$2.1k @ 95.6¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?—
No$2.1k @ 94.0¢
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?Politics
Yes$2.1k @ 93.0¢
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?Politics
No$2.0k @ 75.7¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$1.9k @ 84.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Politics
No$1.9k @ 84.0¢
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?Politics
Yes$1.8k @ 82.0¢
Weed rescheduled by June 30?Politics
No$1.7k @ 78.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$1.7k @ 70.1¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Politics
No$1.7k @ 75.1¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$1.4k @ 60.6¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$1.4k @ 83.8¢
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 91.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
No$1.2k @ 76.1¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$1.0k @ 42.6¢
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?Politics
Yes$1000 @ 45.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Politics
No$989 @ 29.7¢
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?Culture
Yes$820 @ 42.0¢
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?Politics
Yes$811 @ 73.0¢
Epstein client list released by June 30?Politics
No$777 @ 87.5¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
No$745 @ 43.4¢