0x929a…5ab4

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x929a8eb9be3dc9fa54970f10b8195766f1095ab4
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

ProfitableSniper

Edge

+6.2pp

ROI

+22%

Win rate

51% @ 44.8¢

Brier

0.166

Resolved

306

Avg size

$16

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	45% (65/144)	+20%	144
Politics	43% (27/63)	+7%	63
Sports	33% (1/3)	+7%	3
Science	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Tech	100% (2/2)	+43%	2
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+86%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+12%	1

Other144 bets
Hit rate
45% (65/144)
ROI
+20%
Politics63 bets
Hit rate
43% (27/63)
ROI
+7%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+7%
Science3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+43%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+86%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+12%

Track record

45% hit · 97/217

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026?	No	$3	23.0¢	Lost
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	Yes	$18	24.0¢	Lost
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?	Yes	$3	11.0¢	Lost
Will Angers SCO vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw?	Yes	$20	88.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$6	83.2¢	Lost
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by June 30?	Yes	$4	80.0¢	Won
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	Yes	$1	1.4¢	Lost
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	$5	83.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	$36	14.3¢	Lost
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff election by 5–10%?	Yes	$5	19.2¢	Lost
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 10-15%?	Yes	$3	1.8¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$12	11.1¢	Lost
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5	Under	$1	48.0¢	Lost
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$20	78.0¢	Won
Will FC Seoul vs. FC Anyang end in a draw?	Yes	$1	67.0¢	Won
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5	Over	$1	51.0¢	Lost
AS Roma vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5	Under	$15	66.7¢	Won
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	$3	22.0¢	Lost
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$5	84.4¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$10	3.9¢	Lost
Will Venstre be part of the next Government of Denmark?	No	$65	86.8¢	Won
Will Venstre be part of the next Government of Denmark?	Yes	$1	14.7¢	Lost
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5	Under	$20	52.0¢	Won
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?	No	$31	47.2¢	Lost
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	$7	9.0¢	Lost
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC: O/U 1.5	Under	$1	63.0¢	Won
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?	Yes	$2	23.4¢	Lost
Will SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw?	Yes	$21	58.0¢	Lost
Will Boyko Borissov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?	Yes	$5	78.0¢	Won
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?	Yes	$1	26.0¢	Lost
Angers SCO vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 3.5	Over	$1	32.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Trump Strait" or "Strait of Trump" this week? (April 20 - 26)	No	$20	65.2¢	Won
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 2.5	Under	$1	73.0¢	Won
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5	Under	$1	68.0¢	Won
Chesterfield FC vs. Notts County FC: O/U 1.5	Under	$5	70.0¢	Won
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5	Under	$5	69.0¢	Won
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	Yes	$5	4.5¢	Lost
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?	Yes	$29	11.3¢	Lost
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	No	$126	18.9¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$10	29.8¢	Lost
Le Havre AC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 1.5	Under	$5	69.0¢	Won
SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5	Under	$28	71.0¢	Won
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$50	59.0¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Yes	$11	29.0¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$25	35.0¢	Won
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw?	Yes	$1	68.0¢	Won
FK Lokomotiv Moskva vs. FK Baltika Kaliningrad: O/U 1.5	Under	$5	66.3¢	Won
FC Alverca vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 2.5	Under	$5	69.0¢	Won
Will 70-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?	Yes	$1	8.4¢	Lost

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 23.0¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Lost
Yes$18 @ 24.0¢
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?Lost
Yes$3 @ 11.0¢
Will Angers SCO vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw?Won
Yes$20 @ 88.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$6 @ 83.2¢
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by June 30?Won
Yes$4 @ 80.0¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.4¢
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 83.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Lost
Yes$36 @ 14.3¢
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff election by 5–10%?Lost
Yes$5 @ 19.2¢
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 10-15%?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.8¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$12 @ 11.1¢
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5Lost
Under$1 @ 48.0¢
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?Won
Yes$20 @ 78.0¢
Will FC Seoul vs. FC Anyang end in a draw?Won
Yes$1 @ 67.0¢
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5Lost
Over$1 @ 51.0¢
AS Roma vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5Won
Under$15 @ 66.7¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 22.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$5 @ 84.4¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$10 @ 3.9¢
Will Venstre be part of the next Government of Denmark?Won
No$65 @ 86.8¢
Will Venstre be part of the next Government of Denmark?Lost
Yes$1 @ 14.7¢
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5Won
Under$20 @ 52.0¢
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?Lost
No$31 @ 47.2¢
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?Lost
Yes$7 @ 9.0¢
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC: O/U 1.5Won
Under$1 @ 63.0¢
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?Lost
Yes$2 @ 23.4¢
Will SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw?Lost
Yes$21 @ 58.0¢
Will Boyko Borissov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?Won
Yes$5 @ 78.0¢
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?Lost
Yes$1 @ 26.0¢
Angers SCO vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 3.5Lost
Over$1 @ 32.0¢
Will Trump say "Trump Strait" or "Strait of Trump" this week? (April 20 - 26)Won
No$20 @ 65.2¢
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 2.5Won
Under$1 @ 73.0¢
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5Won
Under$1 @ 68.0¢
Chesterfield FC vs. Notts County FC: O/U 1.5Won
Under$5 @ 70.0¢
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5Won
Under$5 @ 69.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 4.5¢
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?Lost
Yes$29 @ 11.3¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?Won
No$126 @ 18.9¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$10 @ 29.8¢
Le Havre AC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 1.5Won
Under$5 @ 69.0¢
SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5Won
Under$28 @ 71.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$50 @ 59.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
Yes$11 @ 29.0¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$25 @ 35.0¢
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw?Won
Yes$1 @ 68.0¢
FK Lokomotiv Moskva vs. FK Baltika Kaliningrad: O/U 1.5Won
Under$5 @ 66.3¢
FC Alverca vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 2.5Won
Under$5 @ 69.0¢
Will 70-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?	—	Yes	$200	77.4¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?	—	No	$187	89.8¢
Orix Buffaloes vs. Saitama Seibu Lions	—	Saitama Seibu Lions	$167	81.6¢
Orix Buffaloes vs. Saitama Seibu Lions	—	Orix Buffaloes	$158	78.1¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?	—	No	$54	27.0¢
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	—	No	$50	68.0¢
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	—	No	$41	8.4¢
Will Trump say "Six Seven" at Freedom 250 showcase?	—	No	$40	99.0¢
Will Trump say "Hormuz" at Freedom 250 showcase?	—	No	$40	99.0¢
Will Trump say "Nuclear" at Freedom 250 showcase?	—	No	$40	99.0¢
Will Lionel Messi score 11+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	—	Yes	$40	30.0¢
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	—	Yes	$30	8.0¢
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?	—	No	$30	70.4¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in July?	—	No	$30	65.7¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 14?	—	No	$26	10.5¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?	—	No	$26	56.5¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?	—	No	$23	11.8¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$23	7.0¢
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in July?	—	No	$20	55.0¢
Will Kylian Mbappe score 10+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	—	Yes	$20	37.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?	—	Yes	$18	15.4¢
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 3+ times at Freedom 250 showcase?	—	No	$15	98.0¢
Will Trump say "Grand Prix" 5+ times at Freedom 250 showcase?	—	No	$15	98.0¢
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?	—	No	$15	29.3¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?	—	No	$13	89.1¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$10	31.3¢
Will Danielle Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Sports	No	$5	14.5¢
Will Trump say "Million," "Billion," or "Trillion" 20+ times at Freedom 250 showcase?	—	No	$5	98.0¢
Will Alana Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Sports	No	$5	19.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 7, 2026?	—	Yes	$5	8.4¢

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?—
Yes$200 @ 77.4¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?—
No$187 @ 89.8¢
Orix Buffaloes vs. Saitama Seibu Lions—
Saitama Seibu Lions$167 @ 81.6¢
Orix Buffaloes vs. Saitama Seibu Lions—
Orix Buffaloes$158 @ 78.1¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?—
No$54 @ 27.0¢
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?—
No$50 @ 68.0¢
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?—
No$41 @ 8.4¢
Will Trump say "Six Seven" at Freedom 250 showcase?—
No$40 @ 99.0¢
Will Trump say "Hormuz" at Freedom 250 showcase?—
No$40 @ 99.0¢
Will Trump say "Nuclear" at Freedom 250 showcase?—
No$40 @ 99.0¢
Will Lionel Messi score 11+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?—
Yes$40 @ 30.0¢
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?—
Yes$30 @ 8.0¢
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?—
No$30 @ 70.4¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in July?—
No$30 @ 65.7¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 14?—
No$26 @ 10.5¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?—
No$26 @ 56.5¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?—
No$23 @ 11.8¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
Yes$23 @ 7.0¢
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in July?—
No$20 @ 55.0¢
Will Kylian Mbappe score 10+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?—
Yes$20 @ 37.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?—
Yes$18 @ 15.4¢
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 3+ times at Freedom 250 showcase?—
No$15 @ 98.0¢
Will Trump say "Grand Prix" 5+ times at Freedom 250 showcase?—
No$15 @ 98.0¢
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?—
No$15 @ 29.3¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?—
No$13 @ 89.1¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?—
Yes$10 @ 31.3¢
Will Danielle Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Sports
No$5 @ 14.5¢
Will Trump say "Million," "Billion," or "Trillion" 20+ times at Freedom 250 showcase?—
No$5 @ 98.0¢
Will Alana Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Sports
No$5 @ 19.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 7, 2026?—
Yes$5 @ 8.4¢