0x8f57…bf51

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8f573bc8598492bf916811d7ce4c56ed57f2bf51
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.1pp

ROI

+21%

Win rate

78% @ 69.0¢

Brier

0.149

Resolved

502

Avg size

$49

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	64% (115/181)	+18%	181
Politics	73% (8/11)	+23%	11
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+29%	2
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other181 bets
Hit rate
64% (115/181)
ROI
+18%
Politics11 bets
Hit rate
73% (8/11)
ROI
+23%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+29%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

64% hit · 125/196

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$10.0k	81.9¢	Won
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?	Yes	$164	41.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?	Yes	$304	89.5¢	Won
Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?	Yes	$3	50.0¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before September?	No	$3	59.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$76	76.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$30	30.0¢	Lost
Will Kamala say "abortion" at debate?	Yes	$5	88.0¢	Won
Will Circle IPO in 2024?	No	$9	62.8¢	Won
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election?	Yes	$100	50.0¢	Lost
Will the debate have 75 million or more viewers?	Yes	$2	30.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to the Nation?	No	$32	64.0¢	Won
Will Tim Walz say "Football" during the debate?	Yes	$5	73.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?	No	$79	79.0¢	Lost
Will Apple remain largest company through Sep 30?	Yes	$8	83.5¢	Lost
Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Yes	$166	83.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "border" 20 or more times during Georgia speech on Oct 15?	Yes	$4	77.0¢	Lost
USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?	Yes	$10	78.5¢	Won
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	$69	69.0¢	Lost
Trump to speak at Bitcoin 2024 conference?	Yes	$3	65.0¢	Won
Solana above $140 on August 23?	Yes	$3	69.0¢	Won
Bitcoin above $60,000 on October 1?	No	$4	76.0¢	Lost
Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024?	Yes	$7	34.3¢	Lost
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?	Yes	$144	72.1¢	Lost
Will Trump and Harris debate before election?	Yes	$11	77.3¢	Won
Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	$5	77.0¢	Won
Will Trump announce strategic Bitcoin reserve?	Yes	$7	29.1¢	Won
Pavel Durov released in August?	No	$4	74.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$177	88.3¢	Won
Will JD Vance say "fentanyl" during the Joe Rogan podcast?	Yes	$4	85.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "fake news" at debate?	Yes	$3	59.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "God" 3+ times during Address to the Nation?	No	$10	20.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$18	18.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$277	69.3¢	Won
Will Tim Walz say "Helene" during the debate?	Yes	$5	79.0¢	Lost
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?	Yes	$42	79.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Elon" during Georgia speech on Oct 15?	Yes	$4	88.0¢	Won
Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18?	Yes	$4	70.0¢	Won
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	$29	28.8¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	$81	81.0¢	Won
Bitcoin above $55,000 on September 13?	Yes	$5	53.0¢	Won
Will Sam Altman take equity in OpenAI in 2024?	Yes	$5	34.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$835	73.7¢	Won
Will Kamala say "border" 5 or more times at debate?	Yes	$5	89.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 20?	Yes	$26	64.5¢	Lost
Will Kamala say "convicted felon" at debate?	Yes	$3	54.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin above $60,000 on August 23?	Yes	$6	62.0¢	Won
Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18?	Yes	$5	65.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$58	58.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	No	$46	46.0¢	Lost

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$10.0k @ 81.9¢
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?Lost
Yes$164 @ 41.0¢
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?Won
Yes$304 @ 89.5¢
Caroline Ellison sentenced to prison?Won
Yes$3 @ 50.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before September?Won
No$3 @ 59.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$76 @ 76.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$30 @ 30.0¢
Will Kamala say "abortion" at debate?Won
Yes$5 @ 88.0¢
Will Circle IPO in 2024?Won
No$9 @ 62.8¢
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election?Lost
Yes$100 @ 50.0¢
Will the debate have 75 million or more viewers?Lost
Yes$2 @ 30.0¢
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to the Nation?Won
No$32 @ 64.0¢
Will Tim Walz say "Football" during the debate?Won
Yes$5 @ 73.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?Lost
No$79 @ 79.0¢
Will Apple remain largest company through Sep 30?Lost
Yes$8 @ 83.5¢
Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election?Won
Yes$166 @ 83.0¢
Will Trump say "border" 20 or more times during Georgia speech on Oct 15?Lost
Yes$4 @ 77.0¢
USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?Won
Yes$10 @ 78.5¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$69 @ 69.0¢
Trump to speak at Bitcoin 2024 conference?Won
Yes$3 @ 65.0¢
Solana above $140 on August 23?Won
Yes$3 @ 69.0¢
Bitcoin above $60,000 on October 1?Lost
No$4 @ 76.0¢
Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024?Lost
Yes$7 @ 34.3¢
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?Lost
Yes$144 @ 72.1¢
Will Trump and Harris debate before election?Won
Yes$11 @ 77.3¢
Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?Won
Yes$5 @ 77.0¢
Will Trump announce strategic Bitcoin reserve?Won
Yes$7 @ 29.1¢
Pavel Durov released in August?Lost
No$4 @ 74.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$177 @ 88.3¢
Will JD Vance say "fentanyl" during the Joe Rogan podcast?Lost
Yes$4 @ 85.0¢
Will Trump say "fake news" at debate?Lost
Yes$3 @ 59.0¢
Will Trump say "God" 3+ times during Address to the Nation?Lost
No$10 @ 20.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$18 @ 18.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$277 @ 69.3¢
Will Tim Walz say "Helene" during the debate?Lost
Yes$5 @ 79.0¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?Won
Yes$42 @ 79.0¢
Will Trump say "Elon" during Georgia speech on Oct 15?Won
Yes$4 @ 88.0¢
Ethereum above $2,400 on October 18?Won
Yes$4 @ 70.0¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Lost
Yes$29 @ 28.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?Won
No$81 @ 81.0¢
Bitcoin above $55,000 on September 13?Won
Yes$5 @ 53.0¢
Will Sam Altman take equity in OpenAI in 2024?Lost
Yes$5 @ 34.0¢
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$835 @ 73.7¢
Will Kamala say "border" 5 or more times at debate?Lost
Yes$5 @ 89.0¢
Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 20?Lost
Yes$26 @ 64.5¢
Will Kamala say "convicted felon" at debate?Lost
Yes$3 @ 54.0¢
Bitcoin above $60,000 on August 23?Won
Yes$6 @ 62.0¢
Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18?Won
Yes$5 @ 65.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$58 @ 58.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?Lost
No$46 @ 46.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$350	70.0¢

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$350 @ 70.0¢