0x8df9…468c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8df92602ec9c454e8099d9dc4a3f0d21daa0468c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.1pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

34% @ 28.2¢

Brier

0.133

Resolved

2502

Avg size

$61

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	31% (113/362)	+31%	362
Politics	36% (32/89)	-29%	89
Geopolitics	21% (7/33)	-43%	33
Sports	16% (3/19)	-76%	19
Tech	75% (3/4)	+57%	4
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other362 bets
Hit rate
31% (113/362)
ROI
+31%
Politics89 bets
Hit rate
36% (32/89)
ROI
-29%
Geopolitics33 bets
Hit rate
21% (7/33)
ROI
-43%
Sports19 bets
Hit rate
16% (3/19)
ROI
-76%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+57%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

31% hit · 158/508

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?	Yes	$100	83.0¢	Won
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$10	1.5¢	Lost
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	Yes	$30	1.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 3?	Yes	$1	33.1¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 3?	Yes	$2	2.1¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	No	$11.6k	9.3¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	Yes	$584	86.4¢	Won
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$100	1.2¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	No	$146	73.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?	Yes	$10	61.5¢	Won
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$100	2.6¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$400	11.2¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$4	78.0¢	Won
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20?	Yes	$10	5.0¢	Lost
Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	$33	49.0¢	Won
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?	No	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	$39	55.0¢	Won
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance	Switzerland	$311	29.3¢	Lost
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$874	11.6¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)	No	$200	21.1¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	Yes	$30	5.6¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?	Yes	$10	3.3¢	Lost
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11?	Yes	$100	34.0¢	Won
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?	No	$16	62.1¢	Won
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?	Yes	$31	20.1¢	Lost
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	$31	52.7¢	Won
Will Iran strike Jordan again in March?	Yes	$68	68.0¢	Won
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million?	No	$2	0.2¢	Lost
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	$17	32.0¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$40	20.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$100	3.1¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$100	88.1¢	Won
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	Yes	$100	1.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$384	65.0¢	Won
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?	Yes	$100	61.8¢	Won
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	Yes	$330	85.7¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	Yes	$168	2.1¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	Yes	$130	2.3¢	Lost
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	No	$100	47.3¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	Yes	$385	84.5¢	Won
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-11?	Yes	$214	13.1¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	No	$100	2.9¢	Lost
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?	Yes	$140	83.8¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 6?	Yes	$11	0.2¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	No	$92	23.0¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?	No	$2	31.7¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?	Yes	$48	73.7¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?	Yes	$108	43.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	Yes	$100	13.0¢	Lost

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?Won
Yes$100 @ 83.0¢
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$10 @ 1.5¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Lost
Yes$30 @ 1.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 3?Lost
Yes$1 @ 33.1¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 3?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.1¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Lost
No$11.6k @ 9.3¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Won
Yes$584 @ 86.4¢
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League?Lost
Yes$100 @ 1.2¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Won
No$146 @ 73.0¢
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?Won
Yes$10 @ 61.5¢
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?Lost
Yes$100 @ 2.6¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$400 @ 11.2¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$4 @ 78.0¢
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20?Lost
Yes$10 @ 5.0¢
Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Won
No$33 @ 49.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?Lost
No$1 @ 2.0¢
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Won
No$39 @ 55.0¢
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to AdvanceLost
Switzerland$311 @ 29.3¢
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$874 @ 11.6¢
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)Lost
No$200 @ 21.1¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$30 @ 5.6¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?Lost
Yes$10 @ 3.3¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11?Won
Yes$100 @ 34.0¢
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?Won
No$16 @ 62.1¢
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?Lost
Yes$31 @ 20.1¢
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Won
No$31 @ 52.7¢
Will Iran strike Jordan again in March?Won
Yes$68 @ 68.0¢
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million?Lost
No$2 @ 0.2¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Lost
Yes$17 @ 32.0¢
Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$40 @ 20.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$100 @ 3.1¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$100 @ 88.1¢
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?Lost
Yes$100 @ 1.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$384 @ 65.0¢
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?Won
Yes$100 @ 61.8¢
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Won
Yes$330 @ 85.7¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?Lost
Yes$168 @ 2.1¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Lost
Yes$130 @ 2.3¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Lost
No$100 @ 47.3¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?Won
Yes$385 @ 84.5¢
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-11?Lost
Yes$214 @ 13.1¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Lost
No$100 @ 2.9¢
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?Won
Yes$140 @ 83.8¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 6?Lost
Yes$11 @ 0.2¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Lost
No$92 @ 23.0¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?Won
No$2 @ 31.7¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?Lost
Yes$48 @ 73.7¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?Won
Yes$108 @ 43.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Lost
Yes$100 @ 13.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$439	18.7¢
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$402	58.6¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$200	21.0¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$170	67.1¢
SSI public model released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$150	17.4¢
SSI public model released by September 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$130	14.1¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$119	13.9¢
Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$100	89.0¢
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$100	79.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$100	17.0¢
Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$82	11.4¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$80	29.2¢
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$60	30.5¢
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$60	7.6¢
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Geopolitics	Yes	$56	56.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$52	26.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$50	59.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$50	28.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$50	3.7¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$40	9.7¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$36	0.8¢
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$30	80.0¢
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$30	81.0¢
Iran coup attempt by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$30	11.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$20	8.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$19	53.0¢
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$10	55.3¢
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$10	49.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$10	9.0¢
Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$10	1.9¢

Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Politics
Yes$439 @ 18.7¢
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?Geopolitics
No$402 @ 58.6¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
Yes$200 @ 21.0¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$170 @ 67.1¢
SSI public model released by October 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$150 @ 17.4¢
SSI public model released by September 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$130 @ 14.1¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Politics
Yes$119 @ 13.9¢
Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by October 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$100 @ 89.0¢
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Tech
Yes$100 @ 79.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$100 @ 17.0¢
Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$82 @ 11.4¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$80 @ 29.2¢
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$60 @ 30.5¢
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Politics
Yes$60 @ 7.6¢
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Geopolitics
Yes$56 @ 56.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$52 @ 26.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$50 @ 59.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$50 @ 28.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$50 @ 3.7¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$40 @ 9.7¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$36 @ 0.8¢
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?Tech
No$30 @ 80.0¢
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?Tech
No$30 @ 81.0¢
Iran coup attempt by December 31?Politics
Yes$30 @ 11.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$20 @ 8.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?Politics
Yes$19 @ 53.0¢
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Tech
Yes$10 @ 55.3¢
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Tech
Yes$10 @ 49.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$10 @ 9.0¢
Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$10 @ 1.9¢