0x8b8b…2512

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8b8b9c565c8dca43cfb767f0f2c20b2b323d2512
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.5pp

ROI

+21%

Win rate

43% @ 34.1¢

Brier

0.157

Resolved

359

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	20% (559/2783)	+12%	2783
Science	12% (116/947)	+5%	947
Politics	22% (15/69)	+19%	69
Sports	35% (16/46)	+84%	46
Culture	25% (3/12)	-8%	12
Tech	17% (1/6)	+10%	6
Geopolitics	33% (1/3)	+12%	3
Economy	33% (1/3)	-100%	3
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other2783 bets
Hit rate
20% (559/2783)
ROI
+12%
Science947 bets
Hit rate
12% (116/947)
ROI
+5%
Politics69 bets
Hit rate
22% (15/69)
ROI
+19%
Sports46 bets
Hit rate
35% (16/46)
ROI
+84%
Culture12 bets
Hit rate
25% (3/12)
ROI
-8%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
17% (1/6)
ROI
+10%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+12%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

18% hit · 712/3870

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on September 21?	Yes	$1	7.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C or below on September 21?	Yes	$4	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on September 21?	Yes	$1	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on September 21?	Yes	$2	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on September 21?	Yes	$4	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on September 21?	No	$1	5.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on September 21?	Yes	$1	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on September 21?	Yes	$4	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on September 21?	Yes	$1	9.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 21?	No	$4	80.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 21?	Yes	$10	52.3¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on September 21?	Yes	$3	3.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on September 20?	No	$9	82.3¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 21?	No	$34	68.3¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 21?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C or higher on September 20?	No	$4	79.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C or higher on September 20?	Yes	$1	7.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on September 20?	No	$80	52.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on September 20?	Yes	$65	69.5¢	Lost
Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	No	$8	15.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C on September 20?	No	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 21?	Yes	$1	2.5¢	Lost
Will Grüne win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	$55	47.1¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 21?	No	$10	29.6¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 21?	Yes	$17	66.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on September 20?	Yes	$1	29.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on September 21?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on September 20?	No	$0	5.5¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on September 21?	No	$1	6.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on September 21?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on September 21?	Yes	$4	17.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on September 20?	No	$4	70.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on September 20?	No	$6	6.4¢	Lost
Will Linke win at least 23% of all valid second votes?	No	$6	18.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on September 21?	No	$7	54.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on September 21?	Yes	$7	79.7¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 21?	No	$16	65.4¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 21?	Yes	$8	16.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on September 21?	No	$2	24.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on September 21?	Yes	$9	54.1¢	Won
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	$30	2.4¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on September 20?	No	$14	77.9¢	Lost
Will CDU win the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	$1	1.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on September 21?	No	$7	31.6¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on September 21?	Yes	$5	33.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on September 21?	No	$15	76.6¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on September 21?	Yes	$2	5.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on September 20?	No	$0	2.7¢	Lost
Will AfD win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes?	No	$0	1.1¢	Lost

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C or below on September 21?Lost
Yes$4 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$1 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on September 21?Lost
Yes$2 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$4 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on September 21?Lost
No$1 @ 5.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$1 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$4 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$1 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 21?Lost
No$4 @ 80.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 21?Won
Yes$10 @ 52.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on September 20?Won
No$9 @ 82.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 21?Won
No$34 @ 68.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C or higher on September 20?Won
No$4 @ 79.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C or higher on September 20?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.2¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on September 20?Won
No$80 @ 52.0¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on September 20?Lost
Yes$65 @ 69.5¢
Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Lost
No$8 @ 15.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C on September 20?Lost
No$1 @ 0.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.5¢
Will Grüne win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Won
No$55 @ 47.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 21?Won
No$10 @ 29.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$17 @ 66.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on September 20?Lost
Yes$1 @ 29.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on September 20?Lost
No$0 @ 5.5¢
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on September 21?Lost
No$1 @ 6.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$4 @ 17.5¢
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on September 20?Won
No$4 @ 70.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on September 20?Lost
No$6 @ 6.4¢
Will Linke win at least 23% of all valid second votes?Lost
No$6 @ 18.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on September 21?Lost
No$7 @ 54.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on September 21?Won
Yes$7 @ 79.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 21?Won
No$16 @ 65.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$8 @ 16.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on September 21?Lost
No$2 @ 24.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on September 21?Won
Yes$9 @ 54.1¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
No$30 @ 2.4¢
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on September 20?Lost
No$14 @ 77.9¢
Will CDU win the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Lost
No$1 @ 1.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on September 21?Won
No$7 @ 31.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$5 @ 33.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on September 21?Won
No$15 @ 76.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$2 @ 5.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on September 20?Lost
No$0 @ 2.7¢
Will AfD win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes?Lost
No$0 @ 1.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.5k	46.1¢
Will voter turnout be between 47% and 50% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$446	14.3¢
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$387	14.3¢
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting?	Economy	Yes	$286	20.0¢
Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$198	14.1¢
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting?	Economy	Yes	$177	20.0¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$130	44.7¢
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$89	3.1¢
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$88	3.1¢
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$88	3.1¢
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$88	3.1¢
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$87	3.1¢
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$87	3.1¢
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$87	3.1¢
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	No	$84	99.6¢
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$72	3.1¢
Will there be 7 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	—	Yes	$67	76.5¢
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$60	3.1¢
Will StepFun have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$49	4.0¢
Will Meituan have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$49	4.0¢
Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$45	14.3¢
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	Economy	No	$33	55.1¢
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$31	3.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on September 22?	Science	Yes	$31	34.0¢
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$30	3.1¢
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$30	3.1¢
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$28	3.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on September 22?	Science	Yes	$23	9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on September 22?	Science	Yes	$23	9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C or higher on September 22?	Science	Yes	$23	9.1¢

Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.5k @ 46.1¢
Will voter turnout be between 47% and 50% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$446 @ 14.3¢
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$387 @ 14.3¢
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting?Economy
Yes$286 @ 20.0¢
Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$198 @ 14.1¢
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting?Economy
Yes$177 @ 20.0¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$130 @ 44.7¢
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$89 @ 3.1¢
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$88 @ 3.1¢
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$88 @ 3.1¢
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$88 @ 3.1¢
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$87 @ 3.1¢
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$87 @ 3.1¢
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$87 @ 3.1¢
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Politics
No$84 @ 99.6¢
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$72 @ 3.1¢
Will there be 7 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?—
Yes$67 @ 76.5¢
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$60 @ 3.1¢
Will StepFun have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$49 @ 4.0¢
Will Meituan have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$49 @ 4.0¢
Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$45 @ 14.3¢
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?Economy
No$33 @ 55.1¢
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$31 @ 3.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on September 22?Science
Yes$31 @ 34.0¢
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$30 @ 3.1¢
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$30 @ 3.1¢
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$28 @ 3.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on September 22?Science
Yes$23 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on September 22?Science
Yes$23 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C or higher on September 22?Science
Yes$23 @ 9.1¢