0x8aaa…51df

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8aaaac8e8523492db360b722af35177f4d4d51df
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.2pp

ROI

+73%

Win rate

31% @ 23.8¢

Brier

0.173

Resolved

1087

Avg size

$115

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	41% (45/111)	+93%	111
Politics	30% (9/30)	+89%	30
Sports	24% (7/29)	-24%	29
Geopolitics	0% (0/7)	-100%	7

Other111 bets
Hit rate
41% (45/111)
ROI
+93%
Politics30 bets
Hit rate
30% (9/30)
ROI
+89%
Sports29 bets
Hit rate
24% (7/29)
ROI
-24%
Geopolitics7 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/7)
ROI
-100%

Track record

34% hit · 61/177

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	$19	23.5¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	No	$1.2k	5.9¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	Yes	$3.5k	28.7¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	Yes	$140	14.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Israel 1 - 3 Republic of Ireland?	Yes	$32	3.0¢	Lost
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	Yes	$100	10.0¢	Lost
Lakers vs. Magic	Lakers	$231	51.3¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	Yes	$1.6k	7.6¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2.2k	9.6¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$73	1.7¢	Lost
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	Yes	$25	16.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$925	17.2¢	Lost
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$479	1.0¢	Lost
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	No	$548	73.0¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$456	62.8¢	Lost
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Yes	$37	19.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$312	54.9¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?	Yes	$102	25.8¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?	Yes	$97	1.0¢	Lost
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers	Lakers	$658	8.0¢	Lost
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Germany	$128	42.0¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	No	$450	9.0¢	Lost
France leading at halftime?	Yes	$113	75.0¢	Won
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain?	Yes	$288	7.0¢	Lost
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	Yes	$138	5.5¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	Yes	$2.5k	79.0¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$533	29.3¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$396	14.6¢	Won
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 4, 2026?	Yes	$265	53.0¢	Lost
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15?	Yes	$160	32.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$620	32.7¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?	Yes	$482	6.2¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?	No	$288	16.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$5.4k	20.3¢	Won
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026?	Yes	$95	83.0¢	Won
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?	No	$85	0.7¢	Lost
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$53	2.1¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$1.9k	14.5¢	Lost
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$82	1.6¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 15?	No	$120	6.0¢	Lost
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?	Yes	$560	19.8¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	No	$6.8k	78.3¢	Won
Warriors vs. Pistons	Warriors	$224	32.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?	No	$467	14.0¢	Lost
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Yes	$3.4k	43.8¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	Yes	$2.3k	18.7¢	Won
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?	Yes	$299	38.7¢	Won
Iran strike on US military by February 28?	Yes	$217	7.2¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$3.4k	32.9¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	$450	29.5¢	Lost

Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Lost
Yes$19 @ 23.5¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Lost
No$1.2k @ 5.9¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Won
Yes$3.5k @ 28.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Lost
Yes$140 @ 14.0¢
Exact Score: Israel 1 - 3 Republic of Ireland?Lost
Yes$32 @ 3.0¢
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Lost
Yes$100 @ 10.0¢
Lakers vs. MagicWon
Lakers$231 @ 51.3¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.6k @ 7.6¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$2.2k @ 9.6¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$73 @ 1.7¢
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?Lost
Yes$25 @ 16.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$925 @ 17.2¢
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$479 @ 1.0¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Won
No$548 @ 73.0¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$456 @ 62.8¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Lost
Yes$37 @ 19.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$312 @ 54.9¢
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?Lost
Yes$102 @ 25.8¢
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$97 @ 1.0¢
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers Lost
Lakers$658 @ 8.0¢
Spread: Germany (-1.5)Lost
Germany$128 @ 42.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Lost
No$450 @ 9.0¢
France leading at halftime?Won
Yes$113 @ 75.0¢
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain?Lost
Yes$288 @ 7.0¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$138 @ 5.5¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Won
Yes$2.5k @ 79.0¢
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$533 @ 29.3¢
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$396 @ 14.6¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 4, 2026?Lost
Yes$265 @ 53.0¢
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15?Lost
Yes$160 @ 32.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
Yes$620 @ 32.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?Lost
Yes$482 @ 6.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Lost
No$288 @ 16.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$5.4k @ 20.3¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026?Won
Yes$95 @ 83.0¢
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$85 @ 0.7¢
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$53 @ 2.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.9k @ 14.5¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$82 @ 1.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 15?Lost
No$120 @ 6.0¢
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?Lost
Yes$560 @ 19.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Won
No$6.8k @ 78.3¢
Warriors vs. PistonsLost
Warriors$224 @ 32.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?Lost
No$467 @ 14.0¢
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?Lost
Yes$3.4k @ 43.8¢
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 18.7¢
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?Won
Yes$299 @ 38.7¢
Iran strike on US military by February 28?Won
Yes$217 @ 7.2¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$3.4k @ 32.9¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
No$450 @ 29.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$4.6k	21.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Politics	No	$4.1k	46.2¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3.6k	45.7¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$3.2k	83.9¢
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	No	$1.8k	83.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$800	40.0¢
Will Yashar win 26-27 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	Yes	$14	13.0¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
No$4.6k @ 21.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
No$4.1k @ 46.2¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$3.6k @ 45.7¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$3.2k @ 83.9¢
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
No$1.8k @ 83.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Geopolitics
No$800 @ 40.0¢
Will Yashar win 26-27 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
Yes$14 @ 13.0¢