0x8a4c…532b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8a4c788f043023b8b28a762216d037e9f148532b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.2pp

ROI

+60%

Win rate

41% @ 32.1¢

Brier

0.188

Resolved

1742

Avg size

$357

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	41% (28/68)	+72%	68
Politics	64% (9/14)	+28%	14
Sports	20% (1/5)	-9%	5
Tech	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Business	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other68 bets
Hit rate
41% (28/68)
ROI
+72%
Politics14 bets
Hit rate
64% (9/14)
ROI
+28%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
-9%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

41% hit · 38/92

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$7	12.0¢	Lost
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones	Iowa State Cyclones	$25.9k	67.0¢	Won
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$497	0.3¢	Lost
Will there be no new Prime Minister of France?	Yes	$157	13.0¢	Lost
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$4.6k	5.3¢	Lost
VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heels: O/U 153.5	Over	$17.5k	49.0¢	Won
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Prairie View A&M Panthers vs. Florida Gators	Prairie View A&M Panthers	$1.6k	1.6¢	Lost
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?	Over	$55	2.0¢	Lost
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?	Under	$4.5k	21.0¢	Won
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?	No	$85	89.5¢	Won
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?	Yes	$800	3.7¢	Lost
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	No	$40.6k	81.0¢	Won
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$5.3k	67.5¢	Won
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$6.5k	8.6¢	Lost
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?	No	$1.4k	3.7¢	Lost
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	No	$2.6k	68.5¢	Won
US government shutdown Saturday?	Yes	$23.7k	78.7¢	Won
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?	Yes	$10	34.0¢	Lost
Will CDU be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?	No	$51	89.9¢	Won
Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?	No	$3.3k	71.0¢	Won
Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?	Yes	$283	2.7¢	Lost
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	$14.2k	75.4¢	Won
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	$1.6k	16.7¢	Lost
South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals: O/U 165.5	Over	$21	49.0¢	Lost
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?	No	$15.0k	75.0¢	Lost
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?	Yes	$3.7k	3.7¢	Won
Spread: Saint Mary's Gaels (-2.5)	Texas A&M Aggies	$1	46.0¢	Won
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	$277	40.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	No	$389	27.0¢	Lost
Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers	Howard Bison	$10	48.0¢	Won
Will AfD win the most seats in 3 German state elections in September 2026?	Yes	$94	14.6¢	Lost
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?	No	$2.5k	49.8¢	Lost
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Texas Longhorns	North Carolina State Wolfpack	$25.0k	50.0¢	Lost
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Texas Longhorns	Texas Longhorns	$24.5k	49.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$19	2.8¢	Lost
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?	No	$149	12.0¢	Lost
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	Yes	$10	0.2¢	Lost
Spread: North Carolina Tar Heels (-2.5)	North Carolina Tar Heels	$77	51.0¢	Lost
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	$162	60.6¢	Won
Spread: North Carolina State Wolfpack (-1.5)	Texas Longhorns	$530	53.0¢	Won
North Dakota State Bison vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 143.5	Over	$510	49.0¢	Won
North Dakota State Bison vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 143.5	Under	$4	50.0¢	Lost
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	$1.5k	68.4¢	Won
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$420	2.8¢	Lost
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?	Yes	$161	69.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30?	Yes	$601	9.7¢	Lost
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	No	$8.0k	84.6¢	Won
Troy Trojans vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers: O/U 137.5	Under	$42.0k	48.0¢	Won
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	$1.3k	22.3¢	Lost

Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 12.0¢
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State CyclonesWon
Iowa State Cyclones$25.9k @ 67.0¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Lost
Yes$497 @ 0.3¢
Will there be no new Prime Minister of France?Lost
Yes$157 @ 13.0¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$4.6k @ 5.3¢
VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heels: O/U 153.5Won
Over$17.5k @ 49.0¢
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Prairie View A&M Panthers vs. Florida GatorsLost
Prairie View A&M Panthers$1.6k @ 1.6¢
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?Lost
Over$55 @ 2.0¢
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?Won
Under$4.5k @ 21.0¢
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?Won
No$85 @ 89.5¢
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?Lost
Yes$800 @ 3.7¢
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?Won
No$40.6k @ 81.0¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$5.3k @ 67.5¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$6.5k @ 8.6¢
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?Lost
No$1.4k @ 3.7¢
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
No$2.6k @ 68.5¢
US government shutdown Saturday?Won
Yes$23.7k @ 78.7¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?Lost
Yes$10 @ 34.0¢
Will CDU be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?Won
No$51 @ 89.9¢
Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?Won
No$3.3k @ 71.0¢
Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?Lost
Yes$283 @ 2.7¢
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Won
No$14.2k @ 75.4¢
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Lost
Yes$1.6k @ 16.7¢
South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals: O/U 165.5Lost
Over$21 @ 49.0¢
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?Lost
No$15.0k @ 75.0¢
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?Won
Yes$3.7k @ 3.7¢
Spread: Saint Mary's Gaels (-2.5)Won
Texas A&M Aggies$1 @ 46.0¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Lost
Yes$277 @ 40.0¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Lost
No$389 @ 27.0¢
Howard Bison vs. UMBC RetrieversWon
Howard Bison$10 @ 48.0¢
Will AfD win the most seats in 3 German state elections in September 2026?Lost
Yes$94 @ 14.6¢
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?Lost
No$2.5k @ 49.8¢
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Texas LonghornsLost
North Carolina State Wolfpack$25.0k @ 50.0¢
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Texas LonghornsWon
Texas Longhorns$24.5k @ 49.0¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$19 @ 2.8¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?Lost
No$149 @ 12.0¢
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.2¢
Spread: North Carolina Tar Heels (-2.5)Lost
North Carolina Tar Heels$77 @ 51.0¢
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Won
No$162 @ 60.6¢
Spread: North Carolina State Wolfpack (-1.5)Won
Texas Longhorns$530 @ 53.0¢
North Dakota State Bison vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 143.5Won
Over$510 @ 49.0¢
North Dakota State Bison vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 143.5Lost
Under$4 @ 50.0¢
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 68.4¢
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$420 @ 2.8¢
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?Won
Yes$161 @ 69.0¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30?Lost
Yes$601 @ 9.7¢
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
No$8.0k @ 84.6¢
Troy Trojans vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers: O/U 137.5Won
Under$42.0k @ 48.0¢
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 22.3¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$54.6k	90.0¢
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$45.1k	48.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$28.0k	44.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	Politics	No	$26.2k	90.5¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$22.2k	35.5¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$7.4k	29.9¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$7.1k	46.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Business	No	$5.1k	14.8¢
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Politics	Yes	$4.2k	41.7¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$3.7k	6.9¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	No	$3.4k	48.2¢
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$3.0k	3.9¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$2.9k	18.6¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2.7k	19.9¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$1.6k	11.5¢
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$1.4k	12.1¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1.2k	43.1¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$1.1k	10.1¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$993	1.5¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$831	21.2¢
Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Politics	Yes	$732	15.9¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$678	21.0¢
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Tech	OpenAI	$657	25.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$621	12.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$603	20.5¢
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?	Crypto	Yes	$442	73.6¢
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$340	1.8¢
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$325	11.3¢
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?	Tech	Yes	$163	3.7¢
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?	Tech	No	$110	22.0¢

Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$54.6k @ 90.0¢
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$45.1k @ 48.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Tech
Yes$28.0k @ 44.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?Politics
No$26.2k @ 90.5¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Tech
Yes$22.2k @ 35.5¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$7.4k @ 29.9¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?Tech
Yes$7.1k @ 46.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Business
No$5.1k @ 14.8¢
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Politics
Yes$4.2k @ 41.7¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?Tech
Yes$3.7k @ 6.9¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
No$3.4k @ 48.2¢
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$3.0k @ 3.9¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?Tech
Yes$2.9k @ 18.6¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$2.7k @ 19.9¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Tech
Yes$1.6k @ 11.5¢
Anthropic IPO before 2027?Business
No$1.4k @ 12.1¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$1.2k @ 43.1¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?Tech
Yes$1.1k @ 10.1¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
Yes$993 @ 1.5¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$831 @ 21.2¢
Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Politics
Yes$732 @ 15.9¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?Tech
Yes$678 @ 21.0¢
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Tech
OpenAI$657 @ 25.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?Tech
Yes$621 @ 12.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Tech
Yes$603 @ 20.5¢
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?Crypto
Yes$442 @ 73.6¢
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$340 @ 1.8¢
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$325 @ 11.3¢
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?Tech
Yes$163 @ 3.7¢
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?Tech
No$110 @ 22.0¢