0x882b…a746

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x882b45bba3afa6c269b4c226aecd86d06e81a746
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.7pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

54% @ 48.9¢

Brier

0.138

Resolved

1444

Avg size

$11

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	46% (11/24)	+3%	24
Other	41% (9/22)	+58%	22
Geopolitics	33% (1/3)	-92%	3

Politics24 bets
Hit rate
46% (11/24)
ROI
+3%
Other22 bets
Hit rate
41% (9/22)
ROI
+58%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-92%

Track record

43% hit · 21/49

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	$32	63.8¢	Won
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	$33	37.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$110	57.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.2k	55.8¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$10	51.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$1.4k	77.6¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$9	86.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$54	0.2¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$53	89.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	No	$3	1.6¢	Lost
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$595	80.6¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	No	$1	3.8¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	Yes	$11	75.6¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by July 15?	Yes	$31	78.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	$36	89.8¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	$3	0.9¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$301	37.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.6k	64.9¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	$3	0.8¢	Lost
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	$252	74.1¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$45	78.0¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	$78	19.2¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	Yes	$209	83.6¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	No	$34	74.9¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	No	$196	0.7¢	Lost
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	$8	82.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	$191	37.1¢	Lost
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	No	$14	67.0¢	Lost
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$21	82.2¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$50	66.7¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	No	$2	5.9¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	$5	52.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$509	73.5¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	$50	18.6¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	No	$5	89.8¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	$111	69.6¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	No	$3.1k	76.7¢	Won
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	$32	8.2¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$161	77.4¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	$21	1.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	$1.4k	64.9¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$79	37.9¢	Lost
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	$11	79.9¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	$1.9k	43.2¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	$76	54.4¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$4	9.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	$99	36.3¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	No	$533	88.8¢	Won

Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Won
No$32 @ 63.8¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Lost
Yes$33 @ 37.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$110 @ 57.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.2k @ 55.8¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$10 @ 51.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 77.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$9 @ 86.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$54 @ 0.2¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026?Won
Yes$53 @ 89.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?Lost
No$3 @ 1.6¢
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$595 @ 80.6¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Lost
No$1 @ 3.8¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Won
Yes$11 @ 75.6¢
Iran closes its airspace by July 15?Won
Yes$31 @ 78.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?Won
No$36 @ 89.8¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$301 @ 37.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 64.9¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Lost
No$3 @ 0.8¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Won
No$252 @ 74.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$45 @ 78.0¢
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?Lost
No$78 @ 19.2¢
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?Won
Yes$209 @ 83.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?Won
No$34 @ 74.9¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Lost
No$196 @ 0.7¢
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?Lost
No$8 @ 82.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Lost
Yes$191 @ 37.1¢
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?Lost
No$14 @ 67.0¢
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?Won
Yes$21 @ 82.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 66.7¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?Lost
No$2 @ 5.9¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Lost
No$5 @ 52.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$509 @ 73.5¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Lost
Yes$50 @ 18.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 89.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?Lost
Yes$111 @ 69.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Won
No$3.1k @ 76.7¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$32 @ 8.2¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Won
Yes$161 @ 77.4¢
Will Trump visit China by May 31?Lost
No$21 @ 1.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Won
No$1.4k @ 64.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$79 @ 37.9¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
Yes$11 @ 79.9¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?Won
No$1.9k @ 43.2¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?Lost
Yes$76 @ 54.4¢
Israel closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$4 @ 9.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?Lost
Yes$99 @ 36.3¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?Won
No$533 @ 88.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$49	26.7¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$2	16.2¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
Yes$49 @ 26.7¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$2 @ 16.2¢