0x87d1…3da3

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x87d1d4198017f86f327c150c73cdd9ac89e33da3
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.0pp

ROI

+12%

Win rate

49% @ 42.8¢

Brier

0.203

Resolved

703

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	52% (118/225)	+10%	225
Politics	43% (23/53)	+6%	53
Geopolitics	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Tech	33% (1/3)	+29%	3
Sports	50% (1/2)	+134%	2
Culture	100% (1/1)	+15%	1

Other225 bets
Hit rate
52% (118/225)
ROI
+10%
Politics53 bets
Hit rate
43% (23/53)
ROI
+6%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+29%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+134%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+15%

Track record

50% hit · 144/288

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$130	52.8¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$35	33.4¢	Lost
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	Yes	$11	47.1¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?	Yes	$4	77.0¢	Won
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$40	84.0¢	Won
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?	Yes	$1	6.0¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$41	74.9¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$32	59.5¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$2	37.0¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$9	7.3¢	Won
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	No	$8	17.2¢	Lost
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	Yes	$12	86.4¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$4	2.2¢	Lost
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$5	87.0¢	Won
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by July 31?	No	$2	61.0¢	Won
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by July 31?	Yes	$10	36.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$50	78.5¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$18	12.7¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	Yes	$6	3.2¢	Lost
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	$1	39.0¢	Won
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?	No	$15	83.9¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	$66	34.7¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$16	27.8¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$70	82.1¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	No	$47	69.1¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$26	20.1¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?	Yes	$31	71.8¢	Won
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	$2	22.0¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$27	61.6¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$3	4.1¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	$15	75.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$47	32.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$96	39.7¢	Won
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?	No	$2	33.7¢	Won
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?	Yes	$3	18.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$43	58.2¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$15	16.3¢	Lost
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?	No	$67	63.8¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?	Yes	$32	29.0¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$24	80.4¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$8	12.2¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	No	$5	83.9¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	Yes	$27	24.5¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	No	$74	79.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$22	10.6¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$470	67.2¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$238	34.0¢	Won
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?	No	$28	33.1¢	Lost
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$27	34.4¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$8	60.9¢	Won

Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
No$130 @ 52.8¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$35 @ 33.4¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Lost
Yes$11 @ 47.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?Won
Yes$4 @ 77.0¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Won
Yes$40 @ 84.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$41 @ 74.9¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$32 @ 59.5¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$2 @ 37.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$9 @ 7.3¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Lost
No$8 @ 17.2¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Won
Yes$12 @ 86.4¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$4 @ 2.2¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Won
No$5 @ 87.0¢
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by July 31?Won
No$2 @ 61.0¢
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by July 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 36.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$50 @ 78.5¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
No$18 @ 12.7¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Lost
Yes$6 @ 3.2¢
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 39.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?Won
No$15 @ 83.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Lost
No$66 @ 34.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
Yes$16 @ 27.8¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Won
No$70 @ 82.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Won
No$47 @ 69.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$26 @ 20.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Won
Yes$31 @ 71.8¢
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?Lost
Yes$2 @ 22.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$27 @ 61.6¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 4.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Won
No$15 @ 75.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$47 @ 32.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$96 @ 39.7¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?Won
No$2 @ 33.7¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 18.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$43 @ 58.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 16.3¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?Won
No$67 @ 63.8¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?Lost
Yes$32 @ 29.0¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$24 @ 80.4¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$8 @ 12.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 83.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$27 @ 24.5¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Won
No$74 @ 79.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$22 @ 10.6¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$470 @ 67.2¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$238 @ 34.0¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$28 @ 33.1¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$27 @ 34.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$8 @ 60.9¢

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